nobody has a crystal ball but this is my current vibe:
12-18 more months of this bull cycle
fed will cut rates, we will likely rip this fall, will likely continue through 2026, intensity and price heavily dependent on macro
most new people will buy bitcoin penny stocks rather than real bitcoin because of x influencers
at some point most participants will believe this time is different, that we have entered a supercycle
people will then get greedy and overleverage themselves, take increasing risk
blow off top and and a great unwind
mstr will probably be fine, most bitcoin penny stocks rekt, a few may get caught in fraud, there will be a narrative that mstr is going to sell, which will drive panic
bottom of the next bear will likely settle over $100k
stay humble and stack sats
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My vibe, everyone trending into BTC. Itโs going to take longer than I expect. Thatโs about it
I agree. We're in the gradually part of gradually then suddenly. Nobody is late yet.
Can nostr survive this??
I'm determined to be the last human posting on nostr.
nobody has a crystal ball but this is my current vibe:
12-18 more months of this bull cycle
fed will cut rates, we will likely rip this fall, will likely continue through 2026, intensity and price heavily dependent on macro
most new people will buy bitcoin penny stocks rather than real bitcoin because of x influencers
at some point most participants will believe this time is different, that we have entered a supercycle
people will then get greedy and overleverage themselves, take increasing risk
blow off top and and a great unwind
mstr will probably be fine, most bitcoin penny stocks rekt, a few may get caught in fraud, there will be a narrative that mstr is going to sell, which will drive panic
bottom of the next bear will likely settle over $100k
stay humble and stack sats
View quoted note →
โฟ ๐ฎ ๐
Coinbase custody honeypot going to royally suck, literally
yes but also


source please
We'll be chilling with a bottom above 100k
$200k by conference day in play
TL/DR: stay humble and stack sats ๐ค
Rest of us boring hodlers will just ๐ฟ
Most wonโt learn until they lose. Real bitcoin > bitcoin penny stocks. Avoid the casino, stack the asset.
This is my thesis as well. The nutsack points me in this direction.
is this like dowsing but without metal rods?
Technically they are brass
Penny stocks, what better than sats stocks on the penny? Just under 1k sats for the dollar. It's still great value imo
Sounds about right but I think we could end up back at $85k or so
stay humble and stack sats
Why so bearish Gladstein : 800+ companies are stacking Bitcoin Going to be 10 000 next year
What are they stacking it for?
Get Wealthier ?
Can you eat sats?
No more than you can eat FIAT.
How I eat fiat: 

Hey now, that's a novel idea, EXCHANGING money/currency you can't eat for food you can!
Guess we can eat Sats if exchanges are allowed.
Where can you exchange sats for food. That's not a thing.
I did it multiple times the last few weeks.
You very much can.
BTCmap.org
BTC Map 

BTC Map
Easily find places to spend sats anywhere on the planet.
Yeah but will you be able to do that going forward? The prices fluctuate so much you never know what you're getting.
I price outside of fiat terms for my bitcoiner buyers. so does @Leathermint the value asked of the items we sell never fluctuates. Its your understanding of its price in you unit of account that is fluctuating
I don't understand what you mean. There's nothing more reliable over the long term than Bitcoin secured by energy and time through global consensus. There is variation in linear price levels that seem massive, but when looked at exponentially those variations are very small and the general trend is clear.
More will continue to adopt. More mining efforts will arise, increasing the hashrate and value. More will begin to accept it for exchange. And so on.
Bitcoin is winning, it's only a matter of time until you realize it.
People do that more and more
In addition, how do you think a new money would emerge : it has to start with store of value, but mean of exchange follow (partly in parallel)
is it is easy and practical to exchange sats for food and the fact you canโt do it everywhere is only because we are still very early
You price what where? I clicked the wedgeorganics.com link in your profile and it took me to a GoDaddy landing page.
Its a place holder for my flowers, unless youโre within 30min drive i canโt deliver to you. I appreciate your want to do commerce with me though.
@PUBKEY for one
Almost 3 years of using Bitcoin as unit of account.
Just in Queenstown, with a regional permanent population of about 50k people, thereโs:
Frankton Pizzeria – Pizza Restaurant – Queenstown

Handlebar Eatery & Brewery
Handlebar Eatery & Brewery

Real Food Kitchen
Home - Real Food Kitchen | Queenstown, New Zealand
Real food and nutrient-dense ingredients help you take control of your eating habits and be the best version of yourself. Flexible delivery options...
The World Bar
The World Bar Queenstown New Zealand | Best Queenstown Nightlife
The World Bar Queenstown is the ultimate spot for drinks, good honest food, teapot cocktails, craft beer & events, live music & Queenstown's b...
Yonder Queenstown New Zealand
Yonder - Best Cafรฉ Queenstown | Dinner Restaurant Queenstown
The best Queenstown cafe for coffee, breakfast or lunch from our restaurant, bar & kitchen. By night, enjoy dinner, beers & the best live music in ...
It says Bitcoin but then the price quote, โฌ0.50, is in fiat. That shows the fiat conversion right there. The Bitcoin price will fluctuate accordingly.
See my comment to @Leathermint below.
For the sake of Bitcoin it would help if you had some sort of website where you publish prices still, just so that we can use it to create some sort of CPI for Bitcoin.
Flowers are more useful for a CPI than wallets since that's something people buy on a regular basis whereas luxury leather wallets are a rare purchase.
Yeah I know - this was more of a funny side joke.
Of course right now people will set the Price connected to the conversion rate to Fiat. But how else should an emerging new Money System evolve? This will change with time ๐
But there are already (very few) people living and paying only in Bitcoin. Itโs not their fault the sellers of products connect the Bitcoin price to the Fiat price. So these bitcoiners already live in a Bitcoin Standard.
Also may I ask how do you pay your suppliers? Do you just sell flowers or also grow flowers? If you grow flowers what are the inputs? Seeds, bulbs, fertilizer? I know nothing about the flower business.
I clicked the pizzeria one and they price in fiat presumably because they do a fiat conversion for you.
Bitcoin prices will fluctuate accordingly, the dream of bypassing fiat gone. #btcfail
Yes it's their fault because they don't offer a currency that allows for stable prices.
The shops price in fiat because prices are relatively stable. Not perfectly stable of course, could be bette, but much more stable than Bitcoin.
I purchase bulk bulbs from a wholesaler, my seeds from small business, my inputs are compost & free wood chips. this is my third season so many perennials are just starting to flower a bit. We specialize in flowers that dont travel well like Snap dragons and dahlias.
My side goal is to get into dried herbs as they store & ship well.
Follow #farmupdate for more
And again - how would you think a new monetary system would evolve?
You really think the way it would is Like:
โHere, I made this new Willynilly-currency: I will set the Price for 100g of bread to 10 Willynillys.โ
And everything accepts this and a new currency is born? Really?
No, you need to have network effects and a mechanism to control supply so that the amount in circulation roughly matches the goods and services on offer.
This is really hard so only governments currently can do it.
Bitcoin and network effect? - Check
Controlling Money Supply in Bitcoin? - Check
Control of supply in goods and Services in circulation and offer is NOT needed (wtf?!?!). โ>Otherwise gold would not function at all.
So honest question: What is the Problem again?
> Bitcoin and network effect? - Check
A network for a currency would be a circular economy of buyers and sellers. There's no such thing.
> Controlling Money Supply in Bitcoin? - Check
Controlling doesn't mean limiting. It means the supply can be increased or decreased to match the goods and services on offer.
The supply of Bitcoin can not be decreased and not be increased above 21m.
> Control of supply in goods and Services in circulation and offer is NOT needed (wtf?!?!). โ
Nowhere did I say "control of supply in goods and services". We live in a free world and can offer as much or as little as we like.
However the supply of money has to roughly match the supply of goods and services for prices to be stable.
> Otherwise gold would not function at all.
It doesn't. There are as many shops doing business in gold as there are in Bitcoin. None.
> So honest question: What is the Problem again?
The above.
Sorry I think we wonโt get to a Common Sense.
All I can say is
Sry sent by mistakeโฆ
All I can say is:
How can you deny the network effect? This is just plain naive. Bitcoin Adoption is growing everywhere.
Circular Economy is not here - YET.
Bit you know what? This is exactly how a Network effect would come in place. It doesnโt make a big โBANGโ and everything is there at once.
Instead naturally growing - thatโs exactly whats happening now.
Monetary Supply has NOT to be decreased or lowered to match goods and services.
If you believe so I donโt think we can come to a common sense ๐คทโโ๏ธ.
In the past humanity used Gold coins.
The Problem with that was not the fact that the Gold coin Supply couldnโt be increased fast.
(First time I would hear this argument)
The Problem was the divisibility, the transferability and that it could be altered with (which was done a lot)
But all of these points are solved by Bitcoin.
So again - I donโt see your arguments. In my view they are plain wrong ๐คทโโ๏ธ.
So I guess: agree to disagree?
But I would love to have this conversation again in 5 years!
Especially regarding the newtwork effect ๐.
OMG youโre right! Thatโs it everyone, bitcoin has failed because itโs imperfect from the moment of its birth. Time to abandon the life rafts and return to the HMS Titanic that is the dollar. Thanks for opening my eyes, mate, I really dodged a bullet there. Phew!
Its birth was 15 years ago?
So it's not a scam anymore then? Or drug money, government will ban, boiling the oceans etc? It's just not widely accepted enough now, is that the new FUD?? Lol
Yeah nah I don't buy the scam/drug/energy aspects. It's just not widely accepted and never will be, lacking a mechanism for stable prices.
I think you will be wrong in the โnever will beโ.
โฆ. especially if your main argument is the lacking mechanism for stable prices.
But we will see I guess - love to talk to you again in 5 years about the development ๐
Will do.
Imagine thinking fiat money will be a โmechanism for stable pricesโ
๐คก
The sats price of everything is collapsing, while the fiat price of everything never stops going up. Is this the stability you're talking about?
It's pretty good. Feel free to plot the price stability of fiat against the price stability of Bitcoin.
Both change but the changes in fiat price are much smaller.
I can see 100k as a future bottom. โฅ๏ธ
Bearish as fuck Matt. We are going to over 1M in 2026 (revised from my 2025 prediction)
Life is much more fun when you are a MAXIMUM BULLTARD
But yes SELF CUSTODY 99%
Leverage 1% for the entertainment
Don't you have any conflicts of interests shilling MSTR?
I bet MSTR rug pull will be infamous like Enron, Dotcom bubble etc.
โThis Bull Cycleโ @ODELL
In what world is this a bull cycle? From the 2021 top to the current price right now itโs less than a 49% gain!
Barely, just barely edging out inflation!
The copium dealing is REAL!
Stay humble and stack sats.
Shout out to me! ๐ท ๐ช ๐ง๐ฌ
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Governments are creating Bitcoin reservesโฆ
Companies are building Bitcoin treasuriesโฆ
Sovereign wealth funds are calling Bitcoin the new 60/40 portfolio modelโฆ
โฆall while Bitcoinโs price is stagnant, barely 50% up from the 2021 highs.
If this was XRP, weโd be trolling the hell out of it.
Instead, we get cope like this trending. ๐ซ
View quoted note โ
Wow - "a 200k by conf day post"
I agree with Matt, but 58k is the inevitable bottom of the next bear market.
Dread it.
Run from it.
Destiny arrives all the same.
View quoted note โ
the suitcoiners will be baptized.
one way or another.
Iโm gonna stay humble and stack sats about it
Iโm here for BTC treasury FUD.
Companies buying Bitcoin have superior management who have thrown out trad Fi orthodoxy.
Bullish
Always time for a little bit of Dan.


odell prediction means bull market confirmed ๐๐
to be honest, i don't believe in big price changes ... until inflation and currency devaluation really kick in
bullish
View quoted note โ
I have huge balls though
...and mempools will never clear again.
at some point, probably, but also admit i got that one very wrong
fine by me, i transact a lot
Ignore the noise and stack sats.
๐
But what about the political landscape?
Do we have an Organs Congress?
#asknostr
nobody has a crystal ball but this is my current vibe:
12-18 more months of this bull cycle
fed will cut rates, we will likely rip this fall, will likely continue through 2026, intensity and price heavily dependent on macro
most new people will buy bitcoin penny stocks rather than real bitcoin because of x influencers
at some point most participants will believe this time is different, that we have entered a supercycle
people will then get greedy and overleverage themselves, take increasing risk
blow off top and and a great unwind
mstr will probably be fine, most bitcoin penny stocks rekt, a few may get caught in fraud, there will be a narrative that mstr is going to sell, which will drive panic
bottom of the next bear will likely settle over $100k
stay humble and stack sats
View quoted note →
Whoa this is awesome. Going for a walk now, but Iโll be back to teleport into some chats tonight. ๐
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