Michael Ratney, the former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia under President Joe Biden, told *Politico* that Iran’s push to change the format and location of the talks is telling. While Washington initially took a “take-it-or-leave-it” stance, it ultimately agreed to the venue change. “Trump doesn’t appear eager for war with Iran, and he may be listening to his Gulf allies,” Ratney said—a view shared by several Arab officials in close contact with the White House.
Four Arab officials from two countries said President Trump and his senior aides have taken seriously their warnings that an attack on Iran could trigger retaliation against neighboring states such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar, potentially spiraling into a prolonged, large-scale regional conflict. They also cautioned that Iran could respond by targeting regional oil exports, driving up energy prices and risking a global economic crisis, possibly by attempting to block the Strait of Hormuz.
Some Gulf officials further argue that even an intensified bombing campaign—beyond last June’s U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites—would be unlikely to bring down the Islamic Republic. “This is far more complex than Venezuela,” one official said, referencing last month’s U.S.-backed operation that led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and the installation of his deputy, who has shown openness to working with the Trump administration.
