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#Bitcoin price forecast update: The recent move down had #BTC broke down of the curved wedge for the first time since this bull market. For the bull case to have a chance of playing out (path 2), BTC needs to remain above $92k and to reclaim the wedge before the end of November. That said, I think there are good odds for this last move down to have found a temporary bottom. From here, I’m expecting a leg up that should bring Bitcoin back to the $120k area. This will probably be the last chance for the bulls to attempt a break out from the curved wedge. However, if the price falls back down and goes out of the wedge, the bull case will become very unlikely at this point. Already, I’m downgrading the probability of the bull case to 20% (from 25%) and upgrading the bear case to 70% (from 65%). Again, even if the bear case is at play, we have good chances of seeing a new ATH next year (in the $135k area ). However, this would be preceded by a drop to the $94k area. For those looking to sell some bitcoins near the top of this bull market, the next leg up may be a good time to consider doing so. As long as the price stays out of the grayed out area, the bear case will maintain a high likelihood of playing out. Emotions are high with Bitcoin trading in this range but keep in mind that this is only a 20% range over a period of 4 months. If the bear case plays out, I’m expecting a 40-50% range over the next four years. I think most long term hodlers are not prepared to navigate this type of price action… #Trading #Tradestr