#Bitcoin price forecast update:
$BTC broke some key levels on this dump that were important for the bulls to defend. There is still a bull case to be made (Path 2) but the probability for it to play out is significantly reduced (25%). Dipping below $90,672 would reduce its probability to under 10% and this bull path would be fully invalidated at $75,017.
Path 1 is the most likely scenario with 65% chance of playing out. This path consists in a long sideway consolidation (probably past 2029) within a 80% or so range between $70K and $135K. Because of its corrective structure, this path could take a multitude of shapes between these two levels. in this scenario, it’s still possible for BTC to put on a new ATH. Even if we don’t put a new ATH it’s more likely than not that we’ll revisit the region of the last ATH. So far, there is no hard invalidation for this scenario but reaching $119,261 before the end of November will have me reduce its probability in favor of the bull case.
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#Bitcoin price forecast update:
With #BTC putting on a new ATH, the bear path that could have opened the door for a full retracement of the current bull cycle becomes very unlikely. However, I wouldn’t discard a high probability (45%) for the top to be in for this bull cycle. If that’s the case, it is more likely that Bitcoin will see a multi years sideway consolidation ranging between $134k and $70K (see path 1). This scenario would become quite unlikely if $125,220 is breached before the price reaches $105,128 first.
If we get a extended bull cycle, I see two paths:
Path 2 that would see the price of Bitcoin grinding up in the already established channel until September 2026 to then consolidate sideways until 2030 or so.
Path 3 that would consist in a blow-off top running until the end of 2026.
Both paths would become less likely if the price can’t hold $105,138. I put a probability of playing out at 35% for path 2 and 15% for path 3.
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