#Bitcoin price forecast update:
Nothing has changed since my last update except that reaching $119,261 by the end of November would not have me to reduce the odds for the bear scenario (path 1) as I was previously anticipating. Based on the structure that has developed, there are good chances that this level will be reached before the end of November without impacting the bear case. In fact, there is a lot of room for #BTC to run higher without impacting the odds for the bear case. The structure that will develop between now and the end of the year is going to matter more than the price itself to gauge whether or not the 65% odds in favor of the bear case can be reduced. That said, I think it’s unlikely for BTC to move sustainably and significantly beyond the current ATH in 2025.
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#Bitcoin price forecast update:
$BTC broke some key levels on this dump that were important for the bulls to defend. There is still a bull case to be made (Path 2) but the probability for it to play out is significantly reduced (25%). Dipping below $90,672 would reduce its probability to under 10% and this bull path would be fully invalidated at $75,017.
Path 1 is the most likely scenario with 65% chance of playing out. This path consists in a long sideway consolidation (probably past 2029) within a 80% or so range between $70K and $135K. Because of its corrective structure, this path could take a multitude of shapes between these two levels. in this scenario, it’s still possible for BTC to put on a new ATH. Even if we don’t put a new ATH it’s more likely than not that we’ll revisit the region of the last ATH. So far, there is no hard invalidation for this scenario but reaching $119,261 before the end of November will have me reduce its probability in favor of the bull case.
#Trading #Tradestr
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