#Bitcoin price forecast update:
With #BTC putting on a new ATH, the bear path that could have opened the door for a full retracement of the current bull cycle becomes very unlikely. However, I wouldn’t discard a high probability (45%) for the top to be in for this bull cycle. If that’s the case, it is more likely that Bitcoin will see a multi years sideway consolidation ranging between $134k and $70K (see path 1). This scenario would become quite unlikely if $125,220 is breached before the price reaches $105,128 first.
If we get a extended bull cycle, I see two paths:
Path 2 that would see the price of Bitcoin grinding up in the already established channel until September 2026 to then consolidate sideways until 2030 or so.
Path 3 that would consist in a blow-off top running until the end of 2026.
Both paths would become less likely if the price can’t hold $105,138. I put a probability of playing out at 35% for path 2 and 15% for path 3.
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#Bitcoin price forecast update:
The advance shown by the bulls over the past week doesn’t yet invalidate the path 1 (bear case) but makes it a lot less likely. Its probability of happening is now downgraded to 25% (from 45%). The path 2 (bull case) is upgraded to 50% (from 30%).
The thesis for an extended cycle appears a lot more probable. Although anything is possible, I don’t think that #BTC will see another parabolic advance within the next five years but rather a steady grind higher with pullbacks no greater than 25% or so. Unless advance in quantum computers shows readiness to wreak havoc Bitcoin, I wouldn’t expect any major bear market as we’ve seen in past cycles.
For the short term, I’m expecting more consolidation until December before the next major leg up (which isn’t exactly reflected in the chart below).
Invalidation for the bear case is still $125,409 while a soft invalidation for the bull case is still $105,128.
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