#Bitcoin price forecast update:
The advance shown by the bulls over the past week doesn’t yet invalidate the path 1 (bear case) but makes it a lot less likely. Its probability of happening is now downgraded to 25% (from 45%). The path 2 (bull case) is upgraded to 50% (from 30%).
The thesis for an extended cycle appears a lot more probable. Although anything is possible, I don’t think that #BTC will see another parabolic advance within the next five years but rather a steady grind higher with pullbacks no greater than 25% or so. Unless advance in quantum computers shows readiness to wreak havoc Bitcoin, I wouldn’t expect any major bear market as we’ve seen in past cycles.
For the short term, I’m expecting more consolidation until December before the next major leg up (which isn’t exactly reflected in the chart below).
Invalidation for the bear case is still $125,409 while a soft invalidation for the bull case is still $105,128.
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#Bitcoin price forecast update:
The rejection of #BTC below $118,000 and the failure to hold key levels on the downside, shifts the momentum back to the bear count (path 1).
The probability weighting for path 1 (bear scenario) is now 45% (up from 30%). Path 2 (bull scenario) now weights at 30% (down from 45%) probability of playing out.
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