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Bitcoiners should be more worried about Bitcoins performance - not suits: When using man math, strong math, and you measure from cycle top to cycle top the math ain’t mathing! Anchor yourself to the peak of each epoch and follow along: 2009 - 2013 = ~1,163,000x (0.1¢ to $1000) 2013 - 2017 = ~20x ($1000 to $20,000) 2017 - 2021 = ~3.6x ($20,000 to $69,000) 2021 - 2025 = ~1.8x ($69,000 to $126,000) 2021 - TODAY = ~1.2x ($69,000 to $84,000) And they say diminishing returns is a fable! For gods sake people don’t cherry pick the 15k bottom post FTX blow up and stop at the 126k ATH! Measure from the mountain ⛰️ top of each epoch ! Anchor⚓️ yourself to mountain peaks! 🏔️ @ODELL ‘s message still remains true: Stay humble and stack sats! With one caveat! It has to be for 2.5 epochs minimum and you have to DCA the lows and highs. Most retail punters do not and will feel the pain of diminishing returns big time! Stay humble and stack sats ❤️
↩ replying to The Bulgarian Pork Whistle
I agree with paying attention to performance, but not how you suggest doing so. What Bitcoiners should pay attention to is adoption. As adoption increases, so do the bottoms. The increasing tops don't indicate adoption; it indicates gambling. So, as far as stay humble and stack sats, I completely agree. But, unless you're a speculative trader, that means paying no attention to the mountain peaks. Just DCA, and as long as adaption (and therefore the bottoms) keeps increasing, you should be good regardless of the peaks... e.g. the CAGR from the March 2020 low to the Jan 2023 low was ~63%. We should expect that rate to slowly decrease over time, but so far, we haven't since dropped below maintaining that rate (though, we're currently getting pretty close to doing so).
The paper Bitcoin market exists because it is profitable to arbitrage the gap between paper price and physical scarcity. The more paper claims exist relative to real BTC, the more fragile the system becomes. Self-custody is the mechanism that forces convergence. When enough holders remove supply from the system, the paper games face a liquidity crisis on the underlying. The suits can play games with synthetic exposure indefinitely — until they cannot deliver the real thing.
↩ replying to Hard Money Herald
this dream of everyone demanding physical is something the gold bugs have wished for decades. it never comes close to happening. most of the paper in the bitcoin system can never be redeemed for bitcoin, so there is no "calling it in". the millions of people around the world who hold the "physical bitcoin" etfs have NO right to call it in and ask for the underlying. so there is 0 risk to the custodians. if they want to sell tons of paper bitcoin (well beyond the 21M cap), they can, as long as they hedge the price exposure in dollars as all they will ever owe to their customers is dollars.
↩ replying to Hard Money Herald
@ODELL we’ve had over a decade to self custody. What % of the individuals that have a large number of Bitcoin in self custody have sold and added supply to the “system”? More than you think the people on here claiming to be “HODLERS” have all sold a % to fund their lifestyles. Is that greed? No, it’s human nature. We all want to live a better life with the short amount of time we have here. Bitcoin will always be sold for a profit, even by the “Diamond Hands” influencers that are preaching and driving Bitcoin’s advancement. Tell me I’m wrong or send me 1Million Sats 😊 @walker @preston @Marty Bent @HODL @jack mallers