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matt & co’s theory of how public opinion on immigration would respond to new information was simply empirically wrong. at this point the only reasonable conclusion is they refuse to update their priors w/ new data because the data is inconvenient for them www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-cost-o... https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:sbdnltkjqzeb5qshxmi7wu2i&cid=bafkreigltkjoio73jjhei65yokywhxeetlmj7etpergyrgvl7dkdbghq4y https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:sbdnltkjqzeb5qshxmi7wu2i&cid=bafkreicnkohplmuncjdqag44phyp7b3z5kzx4kt22lfj2mx3jovopve2la

What the Democrats can learn from the UK Labour Party's complete implosion after moving right on immigration www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-cost-o... https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:sbdnltkjqzeb5qshxmi7wu2i&cid=bafkreibj3sug5vx6ybso6dimief2pleexhvzoirzm6cmiw3u2fui4ceoye https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:sbdnltkjqzeb5qshxmi7wu2i&cid=bafkreibbd3fx3epjdpsldqjzrwkwcnrst5we5mucvhbtlhqwczwv32yn5m https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:sbdnltkjqzeb5qshxmi7wu2i&cid=bafkreicluluk7yiquurs2tb3ndqoxuvlqvx6vohr2ojpyzgjukv3ar4pam

Earlier this year, Matt Yglesias and Hakeem Jeffries urged progressives to shut up about immigration and Kilmar Abrego Garcia. Yglesias said "bad groups" were pushing Dems left on immigration and would help Trump's numbers. How did they get this so wrong? www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-cost-o... The cost of playing defense on...

60 seats in the senate for whichever party actually fixes housing costs www.nytimes.com/2025/12/09/u... In L.A., $750 a Month to Live ...

i asked chat gpt to fact check an article for me https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:sbdnltkjqzeb5qshxmi7wu2i&cid=bafkreidjgm4eujwpsdbzhvfq7qkphecaqnq6k6h52mgj5hfnrlj5hb23c4

Our latest polling averages over at 50+1 show Trump hitting a new low in his job approval rating (39.4% among adults) and Dems meeting their previous high in the generic ballot (+4.4) fiftyplusone.news/latest-polls https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:sbdnltkjqzeb5qshxmi7wu2i&cid=bafkreiax5veqtmneyh32dxhr5edlazxa6zm4ljh55koounb4aivzye52qy https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:sbdnltkjqzeb5qshxmi7wu2i&cid=bafkreieyyuiasxy6nnkxa756qgjqhscxnfdyqhpjmo72plprtzrhcezlz4

if you’re the secretary of defense and you are posting on social media about your likely illegal drone strikes “omgg guys what we are doing is legal!! trust me!” you have lost the PR battle

Good morning. I've got a banger new post out today that develops a new method for placing voters on the left-right ideological spectrum, and adds a new, "non-ideological"/affordability axis to usual way we chart & think about US voters (esp swing voters). www.gelliottmorris.com/p/not-just-l... Not just left vs right: Most v...