OostLog

Too few people have the humility needed to get that we’re all just lucky passengers on the Bitcoin mega trend. Like our boomer parents were lucky to buy cheap houses that became worth millions. People still seem to live with the idea that what they write about quantum, cycles, China bans or privacy shitcoins somehow is going to affect the trajectory of this thing. It’s your usual human arrogance.

The world is so fucked up, in so many different ways right now that I often don’t even know where to start, so I just say nothing.

Find it so fascinating that the very smartest people don’t seem to comprehend Bitcoin almost entirely because their mental model is “stock” instead of “currency”. As if something is blocking them from accepting that in 2025 amidst a world that looks radically different from even a decade ago, something else than a central government could issue one. Just complete mental inflexibility.

From where I sit, Bitcoin looks to have arrived at the plateau of productivity. Though I’d have that line start from a slightly lower base and with a steeper upwards slope. The early years of excitement and crashes are over. Shitcoins came and went. Now we’re entering an altogether less exciting but more meaningful and fruitful phase for Bitcoin.

I know I come across as a bit of an X normie in a way. That’s deliberate. All the normies must move to Nostr, I am trailblazing for the normies

On the dollar, the main model I work with has the slope of the very front end of the US yield curve (<2y) as a strongly positive driver, slope of the belly (2-10y) as a negative driver, and US treasury market illiquidity as a strong positive driver. I’ll fully work it out on here one day, but this model has nailed all the recent tops and bottoms (recently January 2025 and June-ish). Very strong signal for risk assets etc. Currently implying a fair value 96-101, if it goes above or below that it’s usually an extremely strong signal.

Never cared much about gold besides owning some. But the way gold people have been dunking on BTC in 2025 makes it absolutely MANDATORY we go on a rampage repaying them in kind in the next bitcoin bull market

The X algorithm runs on addiction and agitation, pitting people against each other. On top of that, it is ground zero for astroturfing as well as an infinite variety of ops by intelligence services and governments. More and more I think the poisonous impact of this thing on the world’s psyche is not well understood at all. The globohomo elite probably gets it to an extent, but more in the sense of how it’s a threat to them that the propaganda war is now waged on a public battlefield where they don’t have an advantage, or worse, may have a disadvantage. That enrages them. But the right wingers, conservative types, libertarians etc who are often cheering it on, are also useful idiots to an extent. Tools for the propaganda czars trying to have their impact on the battlefield. Why any normal person would spend even a minute of their time there, is truly beyond me. Literal mind poison. Decentralised algorithm free social media FTW.

When it comes to Bitcoin FUD, I’m a bit of a connoisseur. Seeing the China ban FUD for the twentieth time screams laziness and annoys me. BUT seeing a careful build-up of quantum FUD over months, a believable concern and extremely well timed for the so-called 4 year cycle top, I just sit back and appreciate the show from afar with an approving nod. Every shitcoin influencer cockroach growing increasingly frantic and panicked as the headlines randomly seem to come from all directions. Just makes me sit back and go, “true craftsmanship, good game, well played, we stack some cheap sats”.

It’s quite interesting that Bitcoin haters never learn their lesson. Could be wrong about it for 2 years saying it’s going to dump, all the way up from 16k to 125k. Then the moment it’s down to 90k they start the same nonsense all over again. Until they get humbled again. Can they not see the longer term trend?