OostLog

Too few people have the humility needed to get that we’re all just lucky passengers on the Bitcoin mega trend. Like our boomer parents were lucky to buy cheap houses that became worth millions. People still seem to live with the idea that what they write about quantum, cycles, China bans or privacy shitcoins somehow is going to affect the trajectory of this thing. It’s your usual human arrogance.

The world is so fucked up, in so many different ways right now that I often don’t even know where to start, so I just say nothing.

Find it so fascinating that the very smartest people don’t seem to comprehend Bitcoin almost entirely because their mental model is “stock” instead of “currency”. As if something is blocking them from accepting that in 2025 amidst a world that looks radically different from even a decade ago, something else than a central government could issue one. Just complete mental inflexibility.

From where I sit, Bitcoin looks to have arrived at the plateau of productivity. Though I’d have that line start from a slightly lower base and with a steeper upwards slope. The early years of excitement and crashes are over. Shitcoins came and went. Now we’re entering an altogether less exciting but more meaningful and fruitful phase for Bitcoin.

I know I come across as a bit of an X normie in a way. That’s deliberate. All the normies must move to Nostr, I am trailblazing for the normies

On the dollar, the main model I work with has the slope of the very front end of the US yield curve (<2y) as a strongly positive driver, slope of the belly (2-10y) as a negative driver, and US treasury market illiquidity as a strong positive driver. I’ll fully work it out on here one day, but this model has nailed all the recent tops and bottoms (recently January 2025 and June-ish). Very strong signal for risk assets etc. Currently implying a fair value 96-101, if it goes above or below that it’s usually an extremely strong signal.