According to Polybius, governments follow a predictable cycle of rise, decay, and replacement.
The cycle begins with monarchy, rule by a single virtuous leader. Over time, monarchy degenerates into tyranny when the ruler becomes corrupt and self serving. Tyranny is overthrown and replaced by aristocracy, rule by the virtuous few. Aristocracy eventually decays into oligarchy, when the ruling elite govern for their own benefit. Oligarchy is then replaced by democracy, rule by the people. Finally, democracy degenerates into ochlocracy, or mob rule, when public order collapses and decisions are driven by passion rather than law.
Out of chaos, a strong leader emerges, restoring monarchy, and the cycle begins again.
Polybius believed that Rome’s mixed constitution, combining elements of monarchy, aristocracy, and democracy, helped delay this cycle by balancing competing forces. Later thinkers such as Machiavelli were influenced by this idea.
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