It's already happening. Not at a cryptographically relevant level, but it will eventually get there.
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I’ve actually seen, the further I dig into it, that the apparent “progress” is essentially a collection of tricks to appear to factor much larger and larger numbers, only to break it down and realize the genuine entropy in the problem being solved is virtually no different than it was 10 years ago.
The highest *genuine* attempt to factor a number is apparently the number 35… and it didn’t actually work
I remember that you mentioned the 35 number on your podcast on it was illuminating. Makes me think this Quantum FUD is a Psych-Op.