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#Bitcoin price forecast update: Maybe more than ever in this cycle Bitcoin is at a crossroad with a strong probability that the cycle top is already in. However, this scenario has a clear invalidation at $125,759. Breaching this price may be the sign of an extended bull cycle that could continue beyond 2030. However, as long as #BTC trades below this price, being risk-off or hedging is probably not a bad move. Path 1 (45% probability): 🐻 The top of the four year cycle is already in. This scenario will be off the table if $125,759 gets breached. If this scenario plays out, Bitcoin could take a multitude of paths (I drew one possible path for illustration purpose). My base case would be a long bear market extending beyond 2030 that would range between this market top and the $20k area. The bear market could also be shorter with a more shallow retracement ($70k being the minimum target) but I see the base case as more likely considering that we could be correcting the full 16 year bull market cycle. Path 2 (35% probability): 🐂 BTC would keep consolidating at the top for a few more weeks then resume its uptrend. In this scenario, Bitcoin is likely to keep trading within the channel established during this bull cycle. Bitcoin would reach the $200k area around 2027 then range between this zone and $150k until 2030 or so. Although not totally invalidated, this scenario would become a lot less likely if BTC breaches $105,580 (in this case the cycle top scenario probability would jump to around 70%). The remaining 20% of probabilities are assigned to other bullish scenarios which I see as less likely including a deeper retracement before resuming the uptrend or a parabolic ascent. #Trading #Tradestr View quoted note →