The complicated aspect about the Social Security system in the United States is that it was falsely marketed.
It's called an "entitlement" because people pay into it and are supposed to get it back like a pension, regardless of whether they are rich or poor when they retire. And so the Baby Boomer generation views any cuts to their social security as a rugpull, basically. It's not insurance or charity; it's an entitlement.
However, although it was marketed as like an entitlement/pension, that's not how the math worked out in practice. And it's because population growth is slowing. It was based on ponzi math, assuming that every generation will be bigger than the one that came before it. But the Baby Boomer generation was huge.
In addition, when Social Security was created, the retirement age was set near the average life expectancy. Many people would not live long enough to collect it, and most would collect it for a handful of years. Only a small minority of outliers would work for like 40 years and then live off social security for like 20+ years. But then over the decades, life expectancy increased by like 15 years, so the default assumption is indeed that someone can work for 40 years and then have 20+ years of retirement, even though the amount they pay into it doesn't really mathematically cover that. It's not designed for that en masse.
And so Baby Boomers had like a 3.5 worker-to-retiree ratio to support in their peak earnings years, while Millennials will have more like a 2.5 worker-to-retiree ratio or less to deal with. Which means they get a worse deal. Many Millennials don't even think they'll get it at all, despite paying into it.
That breaks up the social contract and sets up inter-generational political conflict. "Fourth Turning" stuff.
It's a big reason why "defined benefit" plans are inherently unstable; they rely on being able to predict the future.
And it's also a big reason why, when speaking about deficits, nothing stops this train.
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and if you really want to know what it is:
View quoted note β
I never asked to be a part of this ponzi, and Iβm certainly not counting on it.
And thatβs the only reason itβs not technically a ponzi scheme. Because instead of being tricked into buying into it they use guns.
I didnβt give my kid a SSN, figured itβs his decision
Boomers are, on average, getting something like 13x what they paid in even when adjusting for inflation. Social contract is completely broken. They should at least be cut off at inflation adjusted contributions.
So basically were fucked
"SCREAMING!: SO AS AN 'EXPERT IN ECONOMICS', WHAT DO YOU SUGGEST AS A SOLUTION TO THE ISSUE YOU BRING UP?!"
opt out and just buy bitcoin!
Meh, I don't plan on paying for any gay social security crap.
All they need to do is buy #bitcoin with the inflows keeping outflows in fiat ..
I appreciate your mind / thoughtfulness / precision
Love me a good engineering-background #Bitcoin er
Maybe Social Security should have been marketed as an insurance policy or an additional tax?
It is a tax - check your paystubs/W2, split between the employer and employee. Its also a completely mismanaged POS.
Give millennials the option to opt out and just pay for boomers retirement by hyprinflating the currency. 5-10 years of hell but a clean slate. π€·ββοΈ
Social Security was opt-in since its beginning until Ronald Reagan, when the Democrats and Republicans made it mandatory.
Interesting. I donβt know the history of it.
agree. Iβm paying into it but i dont count it into my retirement portfolio.
Had a boomer friemd tell me I owe him bc I'm "young". He's worth millions and I have nothing.
Terrible conundrum when something needs to be done but canβt be done at the same time
Excellent analysis... You can almost feel the unconscious expectations of decisions decades past... They just assume that it's supposed to be this way.
"And so Baby Boomers had like a 3.5 worker-to-retiree ratio to support in their peak earnings years, while Millennials will have more like a 2.5 worker-to-retiree ratio or less to deal with. " //
I certainly vividly remember how, in our later high school years, during the "Social Studies" class, we were presented with very similar formulas for the German social security system.
The math simply did not seem to check out.
It just didn't make sense "what the adults were trying to tell us".
It did not square.
When a few of us inquired about it, the teacher didnβt have any satisfying answers. (Well, duhβheβd been on the Ponzi train long enough to know that it would work out for *him* as long as a sufficient number of people kept paying into the system for the next 20-30 years.)
We were presented with all these rosy words and theories about how great Germany is because "everybody is taken care of."
But when you looked at the cold, hard numbers, it seemed evident that a cold, hard stop would follow - and that our generation would bear the brunt.
That specific day never got out of my head.
A severe seed of doubt had been planted.
I would even say if you count all βhiddenβ unemployed (βBuergergeldβ) in, the ratio sucks even more already in Germany.
Its ~ 2:1 currently in Germany w/o consideration that 100 billion euro are subsidized from taxes (or should we say abused) on top, otherwise it would look even more worseβ¦. .
Demografieportal - Fakten - Beitragszahler je Altersrentner in der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung
Aktuell stehen einem Altersrentner rund zwei Beitragszahler gegenΓΌber. Anfang der 1960er Jahre kamen auf einen Altersrentner noch sechs aktiv vers...
German pension scheme is only surviving with the help of money printing aka government debt.
Imagine southern Europe, way older society.
... way more money printing in southern Europe necessary.
Ponzi scheme dressed in a pension's clothing.
The Fourth Turning is here. Prepare for the impact.
#siamstr
In Switzerland, all citizens can vote on specific issues, and this year, pensions were a major topic, especially because everything has become more expensive due to inflation. We even voted to introduce a 13th monthly pension payment, although the financing for it has not yet been finalized. Since young people don't always vote and there are more older people, the older population is more likely to achieve a majority.
That means now everyone will receive more money for their pension
Where Iβm from, when millennials mention they donβt expect to ever get any pension from their mandatory payemnts into the system, the older generations mostly agree that it doesnβt look great, but their answer is that we now have this extra gov-run fund where you can invest additional money into your own retirement with a tiny tax deduction incentive. And I ask if they have ever looked up their portfolio and they look at me funny when I say why would I pay into a fund that will buy local government and government-owned businessesβ bonds with this money and tell me itβs all taken care of. Itβs a great plan to distribute government debt, but not a great retirement plan. That part hasnβt sunk in yet.
this is why I view my humble stacking of BTC as a future pension of sorts.
I can imagine the gov will keep jacking up the pension age anyway and the reality is most people are barley physically or mentality capable for 9-6 jobs past 55 and even then good luck getting a job (I'm talking avout normal people here , not doctors , programmers)
they will just print more pieces of paper and then they'll hand them to the old people
old people vote
30 years ago I thought it was insolving and I really didn't think I was ever going to get any but now I'm 60 I think I might get a little bit
they will means test it. tax it .AMT it
it won't be enough
eventually it will fail somehow probably through too much inflation
The worst part about this is kaeeping the forced payments. I mean, one could see how they miscalculated, but preventing millenials from saving like this is almost evil, and certainly selfish behaviour
As a millennial, I say itβs time to rugpull the boomers. Maybe they can just cut back on the Starbucks.
Suggesting a rug pull on ANYONE for ANY reason isn't right...it's selfish-- "I should be entitled to this, and this other person isn't"
Dishonest
Fair critique
As a millennial. I have decided I won't see a state pension. It's a reason (amongst others) why I chose Bitcoin. And pay into a pension pot that I can control.
On the US social security ponzi scheme...
Literally, a ponzi scheme.
Great post, Lyn! β‘
View quoted note β
They implemented that in Germany after WW2. It simply doesn't work, but opting out is unnecessarily difficult or even impossible if you don't want to leave the country.
Best advice here is to forget about it and invest in your own retirement plan. Which is taxed and they have plans to charge you for social security on your earnings π
Yes, the system is screwed.
You've 100% missed the problem Lyn (sorry).
If the funds contributed to Social Security had been PROPERLY managed and invested, the system would work. It's simply actuarial math...and yes it should be adjusted periodically (again if it had been properly managed) but that's just part of the process. Any well-managed insurance plan does this every day.
Government is the problem, and government mismanagement is why Social Security is in trouble.
(Think of it this way - what if the Social Security funds were invested the same way Nancy Pelosi invested her own money...)
Exact same problem in Finland. It's a pyramid scheme.
Awesome write up.
I am Gen x and I am positive I will not receive any SS. But who GAF! I created my own retirement.π€‘π
The root problem here is that nowhere near enough young people vote.
If they did, they'd still be able to sway the vote enough to cut spending on the elderly. But because they mostly don't vote, they're going to get screwed.
Frankly, they collectively deserve to get screwed. Inaction has consequences.
The changes to the costs and cola increases botched it. You can't 'pay into it' in 20-30 years ago tax amounts and collect in today's present value.
Insanely easy to grasp scam.
choo choo
So keep raising the retirement age? Work yourself to the most unhealthy days of your lives.
Most people didn't used to live beyond the age where they were able to work. Now the majority do.
A potential solution is having a cultural shift away from debt fueled consumerism towards frugality and saving. Hopefully, this will be encouraged by the widespread adoption of Bitcoin and HODL mentality.
The other way is having a cultural expectation for children to take care of their aging parents, definitely not an easy sell in the West nowadays.
Either way, can't be fixed quickly nor easily.
Only a economic depression can do that.
Would appreciate your thoughts on real estate in the context of the value that the Baby Boomers will inevitably pass on to their kids.
While they may have deprived the younger generations of home-ownership and the future value of βentitlements,β bricks and mortar might be their most meaningful asset transfer. Is this just an 80 IQ take or is this actually an under-appreciated demographic shift that bears exploring?
Social security is a huge Cantillon scam. The govt and their fascist cronyies on wall st get your money today at full value and give it back to you as inflated , devalued money sometime in the future. They throw you some bones from interest and investment returns, but the big returns go to Wall St. Anyone relying on Social Security when they retire is screwed.
Ok so hear me out...
Instead of requiring that employees pay into Social Security, the State requires that this amount be converted into bitcoin sent to a time-locked address that YOU hold the keys to, that is locked until whatever the "retirement age" was when you started employment. Different potential timelock per new employer. Each employer pays to a different address all derived from a single xpub.
If the State really cares about forcing people to save for retirement, this is a much more efficient model and you always hold the keys to your own saved money; no opportunity for it to be rehypothecated, redistributed, or spent by the State, and you get exactly what you were forced to save.
Note: Not an endorsement of State force.
sounds exactly like an endorsement of state force. what we need is separation of money and state.
Entitlements $ = Number of retirees * avg. post-retirement lifespan * avg. annual benefits $
One or more of these will have to decline. The 3rd term is a given because it will decline due to inflation without anyone voting on it.
View quoted note β
Thank you for your service. GM! π«‘
