What is my prediction, there is no strategic Bitcoin reserve, Bitcoin reaches new highs due to the conducive liquidity conditions created by the Trump administration (Loans strategic industries), the peak is around 140K, that's it.
Taxes keep going up one way or another (Inflation) and karen and john are getting poorer and poorer.
Nothing changes.
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So you totally subscribe to the 210,000-block cycle view and disregard the notion of a "supercycle"?
I am a believer in the power law until proven otherwise.


The power law was developed to counter the obvious and impactful implications of S2F β¦ amazing how so many bitcoiners have anchored to the obviously bearish model.
Assumes basically no network effects of adoption. It is fucking stupid.
I suppose you understand that the s2f has been invalidated both statistically and empirically...
Interesting π
The FTX psyop had to bring in Larry David, Tom Brady, Steph Curry, et al (and Sequoia for the tech finance community) to break the marketβs psyche
You can sit back and wait to see what ridiculous prices the s2f is quoted and it has never been right, the model has been broken for years.
Since FTX β¦ agreed.
This sounds right to me. Thanks for your posts. Try and read all of them
Nothing changes - everything changed
I see why you are so cynical. You don't know why Bitcoin's price in dollars will expand so rapidly. That's okay, most people don't.
Mostly because I've been in the markets since 1999, I've learned something, I'm not a 20 year old kid who believes all the nonsense they post on social networks.
If you think the price of Bitcoin is going to 400K in this cycle, well, that's up to you, but it's not.
Okay, explain Leonard Lepard or Luke Groman's predictions then. They aren't 20 somethings and they have been in the game a lot longer than you.
The point is the adoption curve of Bitcoin is going parabolic due to incentive not hype. Maybe it's not the 20 year olds on social media that you should listen to for real market information or price opinion. Check their sources.
Another well-aged wine. You know what they say: the devil knows more because he is old than because he is the devil.
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