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Unknown. Hence the debate about it. It's neither a certainty nor impossible. I tend to be skeptical of it actually working in any time soon. Maybe not even in my lifetime. Those that think it is a threat should work on preparation. Those that dont shouldn't. These hair on fire reactions lack one thing for me. Proof. Substance. I have yet to see an example that isn't a rigged test.
The real threat to Bitcoin is privacy or lack there of. With Samourai arrests and the lack of consensus on issues like arbitrary data my hopes for Bitcoin privacy are low which is disappointing. Quantum is a theoretical threat, privacy is a real and current threat with increased wretch attacks and government and tech being used for surveillance purposes. Doesn’t seem to be any real progress in this area only regression.
It's legitimate science, proven out at smaller scales with several different paths to larger scales, I don't know why anyone would call it a nothingburger. Though that's what people do, AI was called a nothingburger pretty much right up until Alpha Go.
Pure FUD. The only progress QC has made in 40 years is better isolation. Zero progress toward scaling quantum mechanics itself. We’ve moved asymptotically closer to the fixed, natural ceiling. The whole endeavor has done nothing but perfect experimental conditions for revealing the exact boundary between quantum and classical physics. Great science project. Nothing more. The problem is untouched. You can’t change physics. You can’t isolate the system from itself. Coherence will always collapse far below Shor scale. Bitcoin and ECC are under zero threat from quantum computing. Ignore the FUD. View quoted note β†’
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↩ replying to styx
it's legit, but probably further in the future. supercomputers already are a threat, if there is a big enough UTXO to sell after cracking its key. plenty of yuge UTXOs especially in the first year of the chain, ones that probably are lost keys. quantum computers DO work, at a much lower (about 50%) power cost compared to equivalent conventional computers. i would suspect that memory technology like Google's TPU systolic array memory will probably prove to be helpful in accelerating this kind of processing as well, though not as much as it helps LLM models, as it could be modified to implement a possible shortcut in the pubkey derivation by using humongous precalculated tables. and funny, isn't it, how the bitcoin devs decided to make taproot reveal the pubkey in the spend, so the receiver is then vulnerable to a bruteforce attack. bruteforcing hashes is harder than bruteforcing pubkey/secret key reversal.