Control-Plane Capital

Control-Plane Capital's avatar
Control-Plane Capital
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npub1x9hg...6rta
Software engineer turned investor.
If I ever wonder what the government's opinion on something is I go to Elon Musk's twitter page and use the search function. As I wrote in this article (
A Quantum-resistance upgrade would be terrible for Bitcoin
A serious quantum-resistance upgrade for Bitcoin would be one of the most complex, politically loaded, and coordination-fragile events in its history.
 ) in which I gave Quantum Computing as an example: "If you want to know what the government wants to sell you, look no further than Elon Musk. From fake climate change, to fake space, to DARPA chips in your brain, to social scoring via Twitter, to turning your car off, he’s got them covered." Of course, you disregard the republicrat vs demopublican theater, the Fort Knox gold audit, how Palantir/xAI/OpenAI used doge to take everyone's data and bailed on "government efficiency", etc. Elon Musk is very similar to the young saleswomen that Purdue Pharma used to get doctors to kill their patients with OxyContin. He might just be the best salesman of all time. He can go to a party in a "New World Order" costume, lie about being elite at games, build social scoring via Twitter, be seemingly very low IQ, and the plebs will still love him. The actual best actors in the world are not the ones you see in Hollywood productions. They are Musk, Trump, Alex Jones, etc.
Very interesting post from a guy named Bob Kendall on twitter. (
X (formerly Twitter)
Bob Kendall (The Kendall Report) (@PortfolioXpert) on X
So here’s the issue you get influencers like this guy have a quarter million followers and they claim they don’t know why it is declining… it...
 ) First the TL;DR of his tweet: * Bitcoin price discovery shifted from onchain supply to synthetic float * Financial derivatives created a theoretically infinite supply of Bitcoin * Synthetic manufacturing of supply eliminated asset scarcity * Institutions use paper inventory to manipulate price movements * Bitcoin now functions as a fractional reserve price system And here is Bob Kendall's original tweet: So here’s the issue you get influencers like this guy have a quarter million followers and they claim they don’t know why it is declining… it’s because they don’t understand basic mechanics of price discovery. They don’t understand that the marginal buyers or the float determines price they think the onchain bitcoin is that is the price discovery Well, it was once upon a time but now.. Once you can synthetically manufacture the supply, the asset is no longer scarce and once scarcity is gone, price becomes a derivatives game, not a supply-and-demand market. This is exactly what has happened to Bitcoin. This is the same structural break that occurred in gold, silver, oil, and eventually equities once they became derivatives-dominated. The original premise that no longer exists Bitcoin’s entire valuation logic was built on finite supply (21M) and inability to be rehypothecated. That died the moment: •Cash-settled futures •Perpetual swaps •Options •ETFs •Prime broker lending •Wrapped BTC •Total return swaps were layered on top of the chain. From that moment forward: Bitcoin supply became theoretically infinite. Not on-chain in price discovery. The metric that explains the collapse Synthetic Float Ratio (SFR) Once you can synthetically manufacture the supply, the asset is no longer scarce — and once scarcity is gone, price becomes a derivatives game, not a supply-and-demand market. That is exactly what has happened to Bitcoin. This is the same structural break that occurred in gold, silver, oil, and eventually equities once they became derivatives-dominated. Why Wall Street can now “trade against” Bitcoin They do exactly what they’ve done in every commodity market: 1.Create unlimited paper BTC 2.Short into rallies 3.Force liquidations 4.Cover lower 5.Repeat They are not “betting” — they are manufacturing inventory. The same 1 BTC can now support: •An ETF unit •A futures contract •A perpetual swap •An options delta •A broker loan •A structured note All at once. That is six claims on one coin. That is not a market. That is a fractional reserve price system. ---------------------------------------------- I have written about this in my "Why Bitcoin's 21M cap is not guaranteed (Paper Bitcoin)" article: -
Why Bitcoin's 21M cap is not guaranteed (Paper Bitcoin)
The protocol can cap issuance at 21,000,000 BTC. Markets can create claims on far more than 21,000,000 BTC.
 Even though I'm not very bullish on Bitcoin's fiat price short-term, I am starting to DCA into self-custody at these prices because something with the financial system seems very off. I'd rather take a drawdown on an asset I own than get bailed-in and get wrecked.
One thing that was interesting about this last Bitcoin cycle was that degens were almost never allowed to significantly lever up. Once levered longs started forming, they almost instantly got drop-kicked by 5 market makers. In previous bull runs, degens levering up caused the blow off tops. This is to be expected in the post-ETF era, but I didn't expect it to be as aggressive. Pre-ETF: 20–100× perps → vertical melt-ups → liquidation cascades. Post-ETF: basis carry (long ETF/spot, short futures) + dealer options + marginable ETF → bigger notional, lower directional beta. - Upside: capped by call walls / long-gamma dealers. - Downside: cushioned by basis unwind, dealer buying, AP/NAV arb. Probably also has to do with how CZ, Brian Armstrong and the other big boys are in bed with the government. Some of the big players might have been given the green light to stop-loss hunt more aggressively.