*Rather than concluding that various levels of macro volatility β€œjustify” various levels of valuation, it’s more accurate to say that high macro volatility increases the discomfort of investors, leading investors to pay low valuations and to demand high future returns as compensation for their discomfort. Low macro volatility makes investors more comfortable, encouraging them to pay high valuations and to demand little in the way of future compensation for taking risk. Once investors are paying high valuations, poor long-term returns are baked in the cake. At that point, any increase in macro volatility causes those poor returns to be far more immediate. The reverse is true once investors have driven valuations to depressed levels.* Record Stock Valuations, Fed Independence, and Macro Volatility - Hussman Funds
Hussman Funds
Record Stock Valuations, Fed Independence, and Macro Volatility - Hussman Funds
Current record-high stock market valuations rest partly on the assumption that inflation volatility and recession risk will remain low. Historicall...
*Uncertainty is about deviation, not just level. Inflation uncertainty does not occur only during periods of high inflation; it can emerge even when inflation runs persistently below target. What matters is not just the level of inflation, but its deviation – both from the central bank’s objective, and from the level that people had assumed when they entered into contracts, mortgages and other commitments.* Record Stock Valuations, Fed Independence, and Macro Volatility - Hussman Funds
Hussman Funds
Record Stock Valuations, Fed Independence, and Macro Volatility - Hussman Funds
Current record-high stock market valuations rest partly on the assumption that inflation volatility and recession risk will remain low. Historicall...
*you better know what you're investing in otherwise you're chasing the latest pumping turd at the top of a parabola like every other clown* View quoted note β†’
*Bitcoin isn’t just money, it’s a mindset shift, a sovereignty upgrade, a quiet revolution* View quoted note β†’
*You don’t escape a simulation by fighting it. You escape it by making it logically obsolete. Choose where your assets live. Choose systems that can be verified.* View quoted note β†’
*Deterministic verification breaks simulations in the same way Neo broke the Matrix: not by bending spoons β€” but by discovering invariants the system itself cannot violate.* View quoted note β†’
*Agency is a stack of learned frames... There are six minimum frames required for a lifelong capacity to generate agency: 1. Impulse Modulation Ability to feel impulse without obeying it. 2. Emotional Modulation Ability to feel emotion without distortion, flooding, or hijack. 3. Epistemic Updating Ability to revise beliefs and strategies when predictions fail. 4. Reality Correspondence Ability to perceive incentives, constraints, and causality as they are, not as wished. 5. Constraint Subordination Acceptance of reality’s authority over preference, narrative, or grievance. 6. Responsibility Internalization Treating outcomes as feedback about your choices rather than external blame.* View quoted note β†’
*If we keep measuring success in fiat prices and not in adoption as money these cycles will continue forever.* View quoted note β†’
*Hierarchy says: Your value is determined by rank. Engagement systems say: Your value is determined by response. Same architecture. Different costume.* View quoted note β†’
https://www.perplexity.ai/page/muscles-release-anti-cancer-co-WPtzoX4CTzm1cmdqWkMulA