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All the advantages of bitcoin against other investments: Bitcoin’s advantages as an investment stem from its unique combination of properties that borrow from gold, stocks, and cash, while adding digital capabilities that none of those possess. Here is a list of the advantages of Bitcoin compared to traditional asset classes (Gold, Real Estate, Stocks, and Bonds), categorized by their primary benefit. 1. Monetary Advantages (The "Hard Money" Case) These properties make Bitcoin comparable to—and in some ways superior to—Gold and Fiat currency. Absolute Scarcity (The "21 Million Cap"): Advantage: Unlike fiat currency (which can be printed infinitely) or Gold (which has an increasing supply via mining), Bitcoin has a mathematically hard-capped supply of 21 million units. Vs. Others: You cannot dilute Bitcoin holders by "printing" more Bitcoin. This makes it a theoretical hedge against monetary inflation. Verifiability: Advantage: Anyone running a node can verify the total supply of Bitcoin and the validity of their own holdings instantly and for free. Vs. Others: To verify Gold, you need expensive assaying tools. To verify fiat or stocks, you must trust an audit or a bank's ledger. Bitcoin is "trustless." Portability: Advantage: You can carry billions of dollars in Bitcoin on a USB stick (hardware wallet) or even in your head (memorizing a seed phrase). Vs. Others: Transporting large amounts of Gold is expensive, heavy, and risky. Real Estate is completely immobile. 2. Structural & Market Advantages These properties relate to how Bitcoin trades and functions compared to financial markets like the S&P 500 or Real Estate. 24/7/365 Liquidity: Advantage: The Bitcoin market never closes. You can buy or sell at 3:00 AM on a Sunday or on Christmas Day. Vs. Others: Stock markets are closed on weekends and holidays and have specific trading hours. Real Estate is highly illiquid, often taking months to sell. Permissionless Accessibility: Advantage: Anyone with an internet connection can buy, sell, or hold Bitcoin. There are no credit checks, accreditation requirements, or minimum capital hurdles. Vs. Others: Real Estate requires high capital and credit. Certain high-yield stocks or funds are restricted to "accredited investors." Global Fungibility: Advantage: 1 BTC in New York is identical to 1 BTC in Tokyo. It trades on a global market. Vs. Others: Real Estate is hyper-local (a crash in one city doesn't mean cheap prices in another). Stocks are often tied to specific national exchanges and regulations. 3. Sovereignty & Security Advantages These are the "risk insurance" properties that differentiate Bitcoin from almost all other assets. Censorship Resistance: Advantage: No bank, government, or corporation can prevent you from sending Bitcoin to someone else. The network is decentralized and has no central authority. Vs. Others: Banks can freeze accounts. Governments can sanction stock ownership. Title insurance companies can dispute Real Estate ownership. Unseizability (bearer asset): Advantage: If you hold your own private keys, your Bitcoin cannot be confiscated by force without your cooperation (disclosure of keys). Vs. Others: Gold can be physically seized. Bank accounts can be garnished. Stocks held in a brokerage are just "IOUs" that can be frozen. No Counterparty Risk: Advantage: If you self-custody Bitcoin, you do not rely on a bank to stay solvent or a company to remain profitable. Vs. Others: Stocks can go to zero if the company fails. Bonds default if the issuer cannot pay. Bank deposits are liabilities of the bank. 4. Operational Advantages Divisibility: Advantage: You can buy $10 worth of Bitcoin (0.0001 BTC). You do not need to buy a whole coin. Vs. Others: You cannot buy 1/100th of a house. Some stocks have high share prices that make small investments difficult (though fractional shares are improving this). Low Maintenance Costs: Advantage: Holding Bitcoin costs nothing (0% carrying cost) other than the one-time cost of a hardware wallet. Vs. Others: Real Estate has property taxes, maintenance, and insurance. Gold requires storage fees or safes. Mutual funds/ETFs have management fees (expense ratios). Summary Comparison Table Feature Bitcoin Gold Real Estate Stocks Supply Limit Strict (21M) Soft (Mining adds ~2%/yr) Flexible (Can build more) Flexible (Stock issuance) Liquidity Instant (24/7) High (Market hrs) Low (Months) High (Market hrs) Portability High (Digital) Low (Heavy) None (Immobile) Medium (Digital but regulated) Censorship Resistant Low (Physical seizure) Low (Govt control) Low (frozen accounts) Yield None (unless lent) None Yes (Rent) Yes (Dividends) A Note on Risks While the above are advantages, they come with the trade-off of volatility. Because Bitcoin is a nascent monetization event in real-time, its price swings violently compared to the stability of Gold or Real Estate. #NFA
Based on market data as of December 19, 2025 📉 Bitcoin treasury companies: big divide in performance. Major players like MicroStrategy corrected ~60%, but smaller "copycats" collapsed 90%+ as premiums evaporated. 1. "Catastrophic" Tier (90%+ Drops) These pivoted hard in 2024-2025 but got wrecked. • KindlyMD (Nakamoto Holdings) $NAKA -98% (last 6 months) From ~$15 peak mid-2025 to ~$0.37. Merger hype faded hard. • Hyperscale Data $GPUS -96% (last 12 months) Data center/mining pivot, ~$75M BTC held but trading near lows. • The Smarter Web Company $SWC -94% (since May 2025 high) UK firm exploded 20,000% on announcement, peaked 630p → ~36p as liquidity vanished. • LQWD Technologies $LQWD -91% (since June 2025 high) Lightning Network hype: $8 peak → $0.68. 2. "Implosion" Tier (75-89% Drops) Still alive but massive discounts, many underwater vs BTC held. • H100 Group $H100 -89% (since mid-2025 high) Swedish pivot: 16.45 SEK → 1.82 SEK. • Solidion Technology $STI -88% (since 2025 high) $55 peak → $6.61. • Capital B $ALCPB -85% (last 6 months) French pivot: ~€5.96 → €0.99, premium to NAV gone. • Semler Scientific $SMLR -74% (YOY) Aggressive buys but no sustained pop. 3. "Major" Tier (for context) Leader held up better. • MicroStrategy $MSTR -63% (since July 2025 ATH) ~ $456 → ~$164. Painful but typical BTC drawdown correction vs small-cap wipes. Summary: Confirms front-running risks. 90%+ droppers (NAKA, SWC, LQWD) = insiders/early exits into hype. Premiums vanished, retail left holding bags. Smaller imitators got crushed while big fish survived (so far). #Bitcoin #BTCtreasury Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy/sell any securities. All data is based on publicly available market information as of December 19, 2025, and stock prices can be volatile. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult qualified professionals before making investment decisions. I am not responsible for any trading losses. #DYOR #NFA
All bitcoin treasury companies CEO need to answer the following question and provide their justification before you invest your money in their company: If we can get a "risk-free” return of 50% Annualized Recurring Revenue (ARR) on Bitcoin itself, why take the risk on these "copycat" treasury companies? The short answer is: Most do not offer a consistent cash return (dividend) that beats 50%. Instead, their "return" to you is Accretion (getting more Bitcoin per share than you could buy yourself) or Operational Yield (using the Bitcoin to generate income). If they cannot prove they are doing this faster than your 50% hurdle, your skepticism about them "front-running" investors is justified. Here is the breakdown of the actual returns and yields these companies are currently generating to justify your investment: 1. The "Accretion" Return (BTC Yield) Most treasury companies (like Semler Scientific and Metaplanet) do not pay cash dividends. Their "return" is measured by BTC Yield—a metric showing how much they increased the Bitcoin backing per share by selling stock at a premium and buying more coins. •Semler Scientific (SMLR) ◦The Return: They reported a BTC Yield of 30.6% YTD (as of Nov 2025). ◦The Reality: This means for every share you held, your "claim" on Bitcoin grew by ~30% without you spending more money. ◦Verdict: 30.6% Accretion < 50% ARR. If your alternative is truly a 50% risk-free return, Semler’s accretion alone does not beat it. You would only invest if you believe the stock premium will expand significantly (gambling on the stock, not the Bitcoin). •Metaplanet (Japan) ◦The Return: Like MicroStrategy, they issue shares to buy BTC. Their strategy relies on the "premium" to NAV collapsing and expanding. ◦The Reality: Recent reports show Metaplanet and similar "imitators" have been hit hard, with premiums collapsing when BTC price reversed. ◦Verdict: High risk. Without a massive premium to exploit, they cannot generate high accretion. 2. The "Operational" Return (Actual Yield) Some companies are trying to generate actual yield from the Bitcoin they hold, rather than just hoping the price goes up. This is closer to the "consistent return" you are looking for. •DeFi Technologies / Valour ◦The Return: They launched a "Yield Bearing Bitcoin ETP" that pays approximately 5.65% yield. They achieve this by staking Bitcoin on the Core chain or using validtors. ◦The Reality: This is a consistent, "real" yield, but 5.65% is far below your 50% benchmark. •MARA Holdings (Marathon) ◦The Return: They actively manage their stack. They allocated ~2,000 BTC to "yield strategies" (like covered calls or lending) and hold a massive stack of ~50,000+ BTC. ◦The Reality: They use this yield to pay for operations (mining costs), not to pay you. The benefit to you is that they don't have to sell as much Bitcoin to keep the lights on. 3. The "Front-Running" Risk Your concern about "front-running" is valid. The business model of these companies is: 1Front-Run: Insiders/Company issue shares (dilution). 2Buy BTC: They use your money to buy BTC. 3Hope: They hope the Bitcoin price rises fast enough to cover the dilution. If the BTC Yield (Accretion) is lower than the Cost of Capital (Dilution), they are essentially destroying value. •Warning Sign: Recent data shows ~60% of Bitcoin treasuries were "underwater" on their purchases during market dips. If they are underwater, they are not generating a return for you; they are just losing your money with leverage. Summary Verdict If we truly 50% risk-free ARR on Bitcoin, none of these treasury companies justify the investment risk right now. •Semler offers ~30% accretion (lower than 50%). •DeFi Tech offers ~6% yield (much lower than 50%).1 •MicroStrategy (The Original) is the only one that has historically achieved ~100%+ BTC Yield during peak bull runs, but even they are volatile.
Why bitcoin price diverts from global M2? While the chart suggests Bitcoin should be higher, there are specific reasons for this temporary decoupling: •Lag Effect: The chart uses a "3-month lead" for liquidity. This suggests that the money printed/injected 3 months ago takes time to flow into risk assets like Bitcoin. The chart implies the market hasn't yet "priced in" the recent liquidity surge. •Counter-Forces (The BoJ Connection): Even though Global M2 is up, specific events like the Bank of Japan rate hike (which we discussed previously) create short-term panic. This panic causes investors to sell risky assets (Bitcoin) for cash despite there being more cash in the system. ◦Think of it this way: The "tide" (Global M2) is rising, which should lift all boats. But a specific "storm" (BoJ Hike/Regulatory fear) is temporarily pushing the Bitcoin boat underwater. Verdict The chart is a macro-bullish signal. •If the correlation holds: Bitcoin acts like a beach ball held underwater. The pressure of rising global liquidity (the water) will eventually force the price (the ball) to shoot up to match the surface level. •The risk: The only way this "undervalued" signal fails is if the correlation permanently breaks—meaning Bitcoin stops caring about global liquidity. However, historically, this gap has always closed with Bitcoin catching up violently to the upside. image
Analysis: Bitcoin Cycles vs Global Liquidity Based on comprehensive research: All Past Bitcoin Cycles Matched Global Liquidity The correlation is 0.94 (extremely strong) between Bitcoin and global liquidity from 2013-2024. Here's the evidence: Every Major Cycle Matched Liquidity Phases: 2011-2013 Bull (+4,900%): Global liquidity expanding via QE2 and QE3 2014-2015 Bear (-85%): Liquidity contracting as Fed ended QE 2016-2017 Bull (+2,900%): ECB and Bank of Japan massive QE programs 2018-2019 Bear (-84%): Fed rate hikes and quantitative tightening 2020-2021 Bull (+1,300%): Unprecedented COVID stimulus ($5 trillion+) 2022 Bear (-65%): Aggressive Fed tightening and QT 2023-2025 Bull (+150%+): Gradual liquidity re-expansion The 4-Year Cycle Was NEVER About Halvings Critical Discovery: The 4-year pattern was correlation, not causation: Halvings coincidentally aligned with the 65-month global liquidity cycle Only 41% of Bitcoin's movement is explained by global liquidity, but this is far more than supply halvings alone The actual driver: 65-month global liquidity mega-cycle + 200-day sub-cycles The 4-Year Cycle is already broken: Current liquidity cycle peaks mid-2026 - NOT aligned with traditional 4-year halving expectations Institutional adoption (2024 ETFs) fundamentally changed market dynamics Bitcoin is now more sensitive to macro liquidity than supply events The 2024-2025 cycle is behaving differently - price action follows liquidity momentum, not halving dates What Really Drives Bitcoin: Federal Reserve policy (interest rates, QE/QT) Global M2 money supply growth rate (with 2-3 month lag) ECB, PBoC, Bank of Japan monetary policies Stablecoin liquidity flows NOT primarily halving events