Dr. Dub

The near-term volatility in Bitcoin’s price will likely be driven by a key narrative: whether or not the United States government decides to implement a strategic Bitcoin reserve. This decision carries significant implications for the future of Bitcoin, as it reflects broader geopolitical considerations and the potential race among nation-states to secure their positions in the evolving global financial landscape. It is plausible that this decision is being influenced not solely by the desire to embrace Bitcoin but also out of fear that other countries are already quietly acquiring substantial Bitcoin reserves without formal announcements. The possibility of being left behind in a new digital reserve currency era could be a motivating factor for the U.S. and other nation-states. These dynamics will contribute significantly to near-term price volatility as markets respond to speculation and concrete developments surrounding national adoption strategies. Looking ahead, my prediction is that Bitcoin will not only be embraced by the United States but also by governments worldwide. Over the course of many years, Bitcoin will become an integral asset in the portfolios of virtually every nation-state. Its adoption will extend across multiple dimensions: 1. Mining Operations: Governments and private entities will continue to invest heavily in Bitcoin mining infrastructure to secure their share of the network. 2. Strategic Reserves: Nation-states will begin to allocate a certain percentage of their financial reserves to Bitcoin, much like they currently hold gold and other assets. This trend will be driven by Bitcoin’s scarcity, decentralization, and growing recognition as a store of value. Bitcoin will increasingly be acquired through multiple avenues, including direct investment in mining infrastructure and active accumulation of Bitcoin holdings. This dual approach will not only strengthen each nation’s financial positioning but also cement Bitcoin’s role as a global financial standard. As this adoption unfolds, Bitcoin will transition from a speculative asset to a fundamental pillar of the international economic system.

Take note of who is actually in charge here.

President Trump has just launched the most successful meme coin in crypto degenerate history. $TRUMP money, as with all other fiat money dreams, will ultimately flow to the hardest form as exemplified by every fiat money chart for the last 16 years. Old habits die hard. Hard money, hard lessons for many. This is going to be a highly entertaining year. The only way to stomache the degeneracy is to continue staying humble and working hard to bring actual value to society. Those who know value know where to place their time.

“The rich have money. The wealthy have control over their time. And time is the scarcest resource, because of its nonrenewability.” -Gautam Baid You know what else isn’t renewable?

Can somebody fact check this? Bitcoin Cycle Timing History The number of days from the bottom of the prior cycle to the top of the next cycle for Bitcoin cycles, along with the respective date ranges, are as follows: 1.From Cycle 1 Bottom to Cycle 2 Top: 747 days (2011-11-18 to 2013-12-04) 2.From Cycle 2 Bottom to Cycle 3 Top: 1068 days (2015-01-14 to 2017-12-17) 3.From Cycle 3 Bottom to Cycle 4 Top: 1061 days (2018-12-15 to 2021-11-10) These durations represent the time periods between the end of one cycle and the peak of the subsequent cycle. So where are we at in the current cycle? June 18, 2022 was most recent cycle bottom $17,700. As of January 2, 2025, we are 929 days into the current Bitcoin cycle, approaching the typical peak range based on historical cycles. This suggests the current cycle could be nearing its peak phase in the coming months.

IMHO there needs to be far more mainstream adoption of layer 2 networks like Lightning if Bitcoin is to reach sustainable levels above $100-200k. All this talk of $1M coin is not probable without the ability to easily exchange with merchants worldwide. Bitcoin was intended to be a medium of exchange without need of middlemen (3rd party banks). All this fixation on fiat-denominated price is a deterrent to progress needed for real adoption worldwide. The cart is currently way out in front of the horse. Most can’t stomach or understand why a 50% drawdown is likely and necessary. More pain in the years ahead until the real value proposition of this asset is understood rather than merely the inflation hedge most institutional investors are seeking.

Celebrating the dollar-denominated price of Bitcoin is more of a distraction than a milestone of progress. I understand how infatuated most Bitcoiners are with the idea of becoming rich—it’s what draws them in. The real ones stay and sacrifice, valuing progress over price at all costs, in the hope of achieving real-world change. They are few. Bear markets are better for work and growth. However, this latest bear market has yielded little progress to justify the high expectations many have for this bull market. More work less talk!

Happy New Year Balogna, Italy 2025!

Truth be told I think I burst that blood vessel in my eyeball trying to take a shit. All constipated in Switzerland off my normal carnivore diet and eating way too much cheese. This is about as beat up as I can look without actually getting in a fight.