Satoshi Nakamoto on Bitcoin Beach in El Salvador, keeping chill under the scorching sun.
There is a German expression that summarizes the Saroshi chill:
“Nur die Harten kommen in den Garten.”
Meaning, “Only the tough (hodlers) get into the garden (of Eden).”
From Ben Hart:
“New Bitcoin holders are asking me about the big 46% price drop since the $126,000 high in October.
Nothing to worry about folks. Zoom out. #Bitcoin is doing exactly what it always does.
Bitcoin's four-year Bull & Bear cycles run like clockwork, in accordance with the four-year Halving Cycle.
I'll explain "Halving" later in this post (for the uninitiated). But what always happens is Bitcoin's price peaks every four years and tends to crash quickly to a low roughly matching the previous four-year price peak.
So Bitcoin peaked at around $17,000 a coin in December of 2017, then quickly crashed to around $3,400 in 2018.
The price then rose to a peak of around $63,000 in November of 2021 (four years later), then crashed to around $16,000 in 2022 -- which was right around the $17,000 peak of the previous four-year cycle.
Bitcoin then rose to a peak of around $126,000 in October of 2025 -- almost exactly four years after the previous peak in November 2021.
What does this mean?
It means it's very likely Bitcoin will drop to around $60,000 -- which was the peak price of the previous four-year cycle.
After that, it seems likely Bitcoin's next big peak will be in November of 2029, probably hitting in the $240,000 to $300,000 range.
(Price is also affected by external factors, such as state of the economy, public psyschology, etc)
As Bitcoin matures, the four-year cycles moderate in terms of price fluctuation. So instead of 85-75% crashes that we used to see, we see 50% crashes as Bitcoin behaves more and more like Gold.
I had hoped we would see the end of the four-year cycle as big Wall Street money got in the game, but this is not the case. We still have the four-year price fluctuation cycle. It's just moderating -- which is actually what we want. We want Bitcoin to behave more like gold in terms of price.
Now, it's important to remember why we own Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is a store of value, similar to gold. It's "digital gold" that can also be used to transact with.
The problem with gold is that you can't really transact with gold.
You can't easily move gold.
Try sending your gold bar from New York to London and see how much that will cost you, just in insurance cost and transport fees alone.
And see what happens if you if you try to carry your gold bar across a border or through an airport.
So gold is a great store of value. But that's all it is.
You can't transact with it. You can't move it. So then gold necessarily becomes very centralized.
You must store your gold with third-parties. This makes your gold very confiscatable -- by government (if you have tax problems) or if you lose a civil lawsuit.
Bitcoin overcomes all these problems. Bitcoin is unconfiscatable if you self-custody.
Bitcoin is also uncensorable if you self-custody -- meaning no third-party can block your transactions.
If you are storing your wealth in a bank or on E-Trade, your wealth really is not yours. It can be confiscated at any time -- by the government or in a civil lawsuit.
If you withdraw $10,000 or more from your bank, the IRS is alerted. Democrats want to make the level $500 for when the IRS is alerted.
Furthermore, we are moving into an era where there will be no cash transactions (or very few). All money (or almost all) issued by government will be digital and programmable (CBDCs).
This means government will be able to program your digital money to only be able to buy things approved by government.
This is happening in China where programmable money is being used to enforce its "social credit" system.
In China, if you have a low "social credit" score, you can't eat at good restaurants, can't ride public transport, can't get a good job, can't go to a good school. You become a social and economic outcast if you have a low "social credit" score.
If too low, you end up in a reeducation camp or a slave labor camp.
Democrats want a "social credit score" system for us.
Bitcoin counters this.
Bitcoin is your off-ramp from the coming "social credit score" system we will have if Democrats win back the Presidency in 2028.
This is why we own Bitcoin.
Bitcoin removes humans from the governance of the money -- automates the money.
This is crucial because humans are prone to corruption. When humans control the money they tend to grab the money.
The way government grabs your money is through taxation and mostly by printing more money.
Bitcoin protects you from this.
Bitcoin separates money from state. Bitcoin is the Second Amendment for your money.
Bitcoin is FREEDOM MONEY.
We must remember this, especially during these periods of price declines every four years, which happen like clockwork -- entirely predictable.
Then these price declines are followed by exponential price increases. Happens every four years, and this is tied to the four-year "Halving Cycle."
What is the "Halving Cycle"?
Well, every four years, the supply of new Bitcoins entering circulation is cut in half.
Right now, 3.125 Bitcoins enter circulation every 10 minutes through a process called "mining" -- which I won't cover here.
In April of 2028, the supply of new Bitcoins entering circulation every 10 minutes will be cut to from 3.125 to 1.5625
Bitcoin's price will rise in anticipation of this event (starting in the second half of this year) as it always does every four years.
As supply contracts, the price predictably rises.
The Bitcoin system operates very much like a clock. It's very predictable over four-year time-frames.
But all you really need to know is that there will never be more than 21 MILLION Bitcoins for 8 BILLION people.
19.9 MILLION Bitcoins have been mined so far.
This means only 1.1 MILLION Bitcoins remain to be mined . . . for 8 BILLION people.
The Bitcoin price is volatile because most of the world (95%) still doesn't understand Bitcoin.
In terms of adoption, Bitcoin is where the Internet was in 1998.
But as more and more people come to understand Bitcoin and become comfortable holding and using Bitcoin, we will wonder why we every trusted the government with our money.
And we will wonder why we ever paid banks to hold our money and paid credit card companies to allow us to buy things.
Now let's review why we own Bitcoin:
1) Bitcoin is unconfiscatable, uncensorable money -- if you self-custody (don't store your Bitcoin on an exchange).
2) Bitcoin is the only truly decentralized money or crypto asset.
This is the miracle of Bitcoin. It achieved true decentralization -- meaning Bitcoin is not owned or controlled by anyone or any small group.
No other money or crypto asset can say this. Ethereum (the #2 crypto asset by market cap, or about 15% the size of Bitcoin) is under the control of its creator, Vitalik Buterin -- so is actually an unregistered security.
Ethereum has been failing in recent years. And Ethereum is not trying to compete with Bitcoin as decentralized digital money. Ethereum says its trying to be a decentralized world computer for decentralized applications (which has not worked well).
Other attempts to complete with Bitcoin as decentralized digital money (i.e. Litecoin, Monero) lost the competition and are tiny compared to Bitcoin.
And in technology, it tends to be winner take all or most.
Bitcoin runs on its own in accordance with a fixed set of rules that can never change -- the most important rule being: There will never be more than 21 MILLION Bitcoins for 8 Billion people.
3) Bitcoin allows you to be your own bank. You never have to trust a third party with your money again. You never have to beg your bank for your own money. That's what makes Bitcoin FREEDOM MONEY. Bitcoin turns you into a sovereign individual, not at the mercy of government or anyone. Bitcoin is "Fu*ck You" money.
4) Bitcoin protects you from the government's fiat money printing press -- the government's criminal counterfeiting operation.
Consider this.
When the United States abandoned the gold standard completely in 1971, one ounce of gold cost $35. Today, once ounce of gold is $5,000 an ounce. So the dollar has lost 99% of its value since 1971. In other words, instead of paying $50,000 for an average car today, you should be paying $500 for the same car. Let that sink in.
Fiat money printing by government is 100% taxation over time. And it's unlegislated taxation. Congress never has to pass another tax increase. The government just prints up more money -- as much as it wants -- prints up enough to cover the interest payments on the $39 TRILLION National Debt (soon to be $100 TRILLION).
Bitcoin protects you from this.
5) With Bitcoin, you can move unlimited wealth instantly with a few keystrokes -- and need no one's permission to do so. If you have a hundred thousand dollars or a million dollars or a billion dollars, you can send it anywhere instantly for a few dollars. It would take days or weeks to get your bank to sign off on a transaction like this (if your bank signs off on this at all). And the IRS would be alerted. Or you can just store it on the blockchain where no one but you can access it.
There are more possibilities for private Bitcoin key codes than there are atoms in the known universe.
CONTRAST BITCOIN WITH GOLD . . .
You can't move gold. You can't transact with gold. You have to trust a third party with your gold. When you buy gold, you need to be an expert to know if your gold is diluted, or pay an expert to confirm you are buying what you think you are buying. And then you must trust this expert.
You must pay a third party a lot of money to store your gold. You could try to store it yourself -- perhaps bury it in the ground. But someone might see you burying it -- might see you out there with a shovel and wonder what your are burying.
This is why Bitcoin is such a revolutionary asset. Bitcoin allows you to become a completely mobile, sovereign, and free individual.
If all Hell breaks loose here or we become a totalitarian country (very likely if Dems win in 2028), Bitcoin allows you to carry your wealth with you -- on tiny piece of paper or in your head if you can remember 24 words.
You can't do that with gold.
That's why we own Bitcoin. And that's why I don't pay much attention to these very predictable price fluctuations.
