Ultimately, if the U.S. became a closed, authoritarian economy, Bitcoin would likely become a high-value "exit ramp" for the wealthy and a survival tool for the public—potentially reaching astronomical valuations in dollar terms, though the "dollar" itself might be worth much less at that point.
Predicting the price of Bitcoin in a scenario involving extreme centralization of executive power—or a "fascist dictatorship"—is a dive into the ultimate tension of the "Digital Gold" thesis.
Economically, Bitcoin reacts more to instability and monetary policy than to any specific political "ism." Here is how such a seismic shift in U.S. governance would likely pull the levers of the crypto market.
1. The "Flight to Safety" (Bull Case)
If the U.S. government were to move toward an authoritarian model, the primary economic byproduct is usually a loss of institutional trust. As of early 2026, we are already seeing a "vaporizing of trust" (as some analysts call it) due to erratic trade policies and tariff threats, which has pushed gold past $5,000 an ounce.
• Currency Debasement: Dictatorships often fund themselves by printing money or pressuring the central bank (the Fed) to keep rates low regardless of inflation. If the USD were to be weaponized or devalued, Bitcoin’s fixed supply (21 million) would likely make it a magnet for capital flight.
• The "Censorship Resistance" Premium: In a regime where bank accounts can be frozen for political dissent, an asset that exists outside the traditional banking system becomes a necessity rather than a speculation. This would likely drive a massive "black market" or "gray market" premium for BTC.
2. The "FDR Scenario" (Bear Case)
The biggest threat to Bitcoin in an authoritarian U.S. is not the market, but the Executive Order.
• Seizure & Bans: Just as FDR issued Executive Order 6102 in 1933 to criminalize the possession of gold, a highly centralized administration could move to "nationalize" Bitcoin.
• Strategic Reserve vs. Private Ownership: While the current administration has floated the idea of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, an authoritarian shift might involve the government wanting all the Bitcoin. They could mandate that all private holdings be moved to government-monitored "custodial" wallets, effectively killing the "not your keys, not your coins" ethos and crashing the price in regulated markets.
3. Current 2026 Market Dynamics
To ground this hypothetical in current reality: The market is already jittery.
• The "Sell America" Trade: We are currently seeing investors diversify away from U.S. assets (equities and Treasuries) toward commodities and international havens.
• Fed Independence: With Chair Jerome Powell’s term ending in May 2026 and reports of political pressure on the Fed, any move that signals the end of the central bank's autonomy would likely be a "rocket fuel" moment for Bitcoin's price—at least until the regulatory "hammer" drops.