Kasjan

Kasjan's avatar
Kasjan
lukasz@primal.net
npub1hfcp...fpjs
CFO @ Club Orange
Saylor just posted something cryptic. "What if we start adding green dots?" Most people think it means MSTR share buybacks. I think they're wrong. ❌ 🟢 Green dots = BTC buys funded through a BTC-backed bank line. Overcollateralized. SOFR + ~1%. Same dots, new source of capital. 🔶 Why does this matter? If banks accept Bitcoin as collateral, borrowing against it becomes far cheaper. For everyone. This is a massive long-term validation. And Strategy wants us to notice. 🔶 Why am I confident? In January 2025, while everyone was focused on the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (which never happened), I was focused on something else: SAB121 repeal. I predicted those accounting rules would change. They did—shortly after. That change made BTC-backed bank lines possible. 🔓 Now, close to one year later, it's about time to see this implemented. The mainstream says: share buybacks. I say: Bitcoin-backed credit lines from major banks. We'll see who's right. 👉 Follow for more contrarian takes and nuanced analysis on Bitcoin, saving, and investing. #Bitcoin #MSTR #Saylor image
Kraken charged my father 2.9% to buy Bitcoin. The real fee? 0.3%. They hid the cheap option and hoped he wouldn't notice. My father has been buying Bitcoin for a while now. Small amounts, nothing crazy. Last week I asked him: "Did you nail the bottom? What price did you get?" He gave me exact numbers—including all the decimals on the BTC amount. Something didn't add up. "Wait. The math doesn't work." 😐 No typos. I had him show me his Kraken account. Here's what I found: He's been using Kraken's default instant buy feature this entire time. They charged him around 3% per transaction. Kraken Pro—literally one setting toggle away—charges 0.25% + minimal spread (~0.3% total). They made nearly 10x more by hiding the cheaper option. 🫠 And he's been doing this for months. I called my non-trader friends and family who buy Bitcoin occasionally. Every single one: using the expensive "beginner" interfaces. Collectively, they've lost hundreds—maybe thousands—over the years. This isn't an accident. 💠 Exchanges design their interfaces this way: Default = expensive (2-3%) "Pro" = cheap (0.2-0.4%) No warning. No notification. They're counting on you not knowing there's a cheaper option one click away. 💠 Check your exchange today: Kraken: Toggle "Kraken Pro" in settings Coinbase: Switch to "Advanced Trade" Other exchanges: Look for "Pro" or "Trading" mode Usually one click away. Could save you thousands. Share this with anyone buying Bitcoin on exchanges. I'm writing “Broken Prices: The Road to Sound Money” Get notified when it's out → soundmoneyroad.com hasztag#Kraken hasztag#Coinbase hasztag#BrokenPrices image
𝗔𝗻𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗯𝗶𝗴 𝗲𝘅𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝗯𝗹𝗼𝗰𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵𝗱𝗿𝗮𝘄𝗮𝗹𝘀. Bank run in progress. In the last 24 hours, users have pulled 37% of all funds. The exchange? MEXC. The CEO publicly admitted—at least once—that funds get blocked or unblocked when they "get emotional." Yes, you read that right. Your funds. Their emotions. (Most likely they have serious liquidity problems. The emotions are just the cherry on top.) This is why "not your keys, not your coins" isn't just a slogan. Exchanges can—and do—take or lose your Bitcoin: ▪️ Hacks (Mt. Gox, Bitfinex) ▪️ Exit scams (QuadrigaCX, Thodex) ▪️ Fraud (FTX—CEO's girlfriend needed to cover bad trades, customers paid the bill) And now: withdrawals frozen based on feelings. The reality: If an exchange is insolvent, there won't be enough funds for everyone. The last people to withdraw lose everything. 𝗬𝗼𝘂 𝗱𝗼𝗻'𝘁 𝘄𝗮𝗻𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝗲 𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘁. Some things to consider: 1. 𝗦𝗲𝗹𝗳-𝗰𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗱𝘆 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗴𝗼𝗹𝗱 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗮𝗿𝗱—if done properly, no one can confiscate or steal your Bitcoin (except through physical force). But this requires learning how to do it right. 2. 𝗜𝗳 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝗺𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝘂𝘀𝗲 𝗲𝘅𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀—stick to large, established ones (founded before 2015). Even then, don't store more than you're willing to lose. 3. 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗶𝘁𝗼𝗿 𝗲𝘅𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲 𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗹𝘁𝗵—tools in the comment below let you track Bitcoin balances on exchanges. Sudden drops = warning sign. If you have funds on MEXC: 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵𝗱𝗿𝗮𝘄 𝗶𝗺𝗺𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗹𝘆 if you still can. It's could be over for them. I'm writing “Broken Prices: The Road to Sound Money”—a book about money and Bitcoin. Get notified when it launches → soundmoneyroad.com 📖 Tools to monitor exchange balances: Bitcoin balances on exchanges (more reliable, shorter list): "Clean Assets" balances in USD (less reliable, bigger list): Note: Having balances on these lists does not guarantee solvency. ☠️ #Bitcoin #SelfCustody #MEXC #BrokenPrices image
A senior finance director once told me: "I hate Bitcoin." This is someone I respect. Smart guy. Decades of experience. And yet... he hates Bitcoin. Let me tell you what "I hate Bitcoin" actually means: ❌ "I hate money" → No ❌ "I hate good technology" → No ✅ "I hate that young people found an exit" → Yes 🔸 Here's the uncomfortable truth The boomer generation built wealth in a specific system: - Buy stocks (they go up forever) - Buy bonds (safe yield) - Buy real estate (prices only rise) - Repeat for 40 years It worked. Because the money supply expanded faster than the asset base, inflating everything they owned. Now they're retiring. And they need someone to buy those assets at inflated prices. 🔸 Then Bitcoin appeared. Young people look at the game and see: - Stocks at all-time highs (P/E ratios make no sense) - Bonds yielding 2% while they print 6% new currency per year - Real estate requiring 10+ year salaries for a down payment - Pensions that won't exist when they retire And they say: "No thanks. I'll take the fixed-supply digital asset instead." This is the real threat. If the next generation opts out and buys Bitcoin instead of boomer assets... Who's buying the stocks at these valuations? Who's buying the bonds that lose 4% per year in real terms? Who's buying the house for $800k that cost $80k in 1985? They don't hate Bitcoin because it's a scam. They hate it because it's an "exit"—and someone needs to stay in the system to buy their bags. "I hate Bitcoin" = "I hate that you found a way out before I could sell you my overpriced assets." I'm writing about this wealth transfer in "Broken Prices: The Road to Sound Money" 📖 Get notified → soundmoneyroad.com #Bitcoin #ExitStrategy #Finance #BrokenPrices image
I just open-sourced institutional due diligence on a $1.2B real estate tokenization project. Commissioned by a private investor + legal counsel. They agreed to publish the complete report. With RWA heating up again, here's what professional diligence actually found: - $1.2B in claimed assets - zero proof of ownership - No legal mechanism linking tokens to property rights - "Zero risk" yield with no disclosed cash flow source - No verified founders or governance Full report (methodology, red flags, competitive analysis): soundmoneyroad.com This is what real diligence looks like - and why most tokenization projects can't survive it.
The $19 Billion Lesson Nobody Wants to Learn Friday, October 10th, 2025. While you slept, $19 billion evaporated from the crypto markets in what became the largest liquidation event in digital asset history. 1.6 million traders woke up to discover their portfolios had vanished. Multi-million dollar accounts reduced to zero. One top-100 token—ATOM—literally hit zero on Binance. Not "nearly zero." Zero. 👋 Here's what happened: A sophisticated whale exploited Binance's price oracle, manipulating the data feed that determines collateral values across the exchange. As collateral values crashed, cascading liquidations ripped through thousands of leveraged positions like dominoes. 📉 Then Trump escalated the China trade war via social media post—conveniently timed during the lowest liquidity hours of the trading week. The timing raises questions nobody in power wants to answer. The result? Junk coins down 80% or more. (See image below - this is an unleveraged portfolio that survived the carnage. No margin calls, no liquidations. Just straight portfolio destruction 🪦 .) Fortunes built on leverage, destroyed in hours. But even if you played it "safe" without leverage, Friday was a masterclass in why the casino doesn't need margin to take your money. 🟠 And here's the part that matters: This wasn't a black swan event. This was the casino operating exactly as designed. The house always wins, and leverage always finds its victims. There's a different game being played—one that doesn't require you to gamble, trade, or stay awake monitoring positions at 3am. Bitcoin. Not for trading. For saving. 🪙 "But the returns!" you say. Here's the thing: we're still at less than 0.5% of global savings allocated to Bitcoin. We're not late. We're absurdly early🌱 . The adoption curve hasn't even begun its vertical climb. You can capture extraordinary returns without playing in the casino. You just have to be patient enough to let adoption do the work while everyone else is getting liquidated chasing 100x shitcoins. The crypto market just taught a $19 billion lesson. Most people have already ignored it and reloaded their gambling accounts. You don't have to be most people. image
Here’s the original caption for this excellent chart (posted by [@Ra89Capital] on X): “Make no mistake, it [Bitcoin] hasn’t done jack f*cking shit in years vs real money.” My take: 1️⃣Use the right denominator. Any serious financial comparison needs a sound unit of account — not a fiat currency that steadily loses purchasing power (including the USD 💵). 2️⃣Frustration is real. What might be counterintuitive, people who understand point #1 have been disappointed with Bitcoin’s performance in recent years. Sentiment in Bitcoin circles isn’t great 🤦‍♂️⛈️— and the chart captures why. 3️⃣Bitcoin vs. gold. Holding Bitcoin has still beaten holding gold: 🔸Physical gold is easy to confiscate🫳💰; Bitcoin isn’t🫳🖕. 🔸Gold ☎️faces existential risk from Bitcoin — its digital successor📱. 🔸Bitcoin is ~10x smaller than gold and adopting much faster, which leaves more room for sharp upside🚀. It may take patience😴, but the asymmetry remains. If you’d like this and much more explained in plain, no-jargon language, drop your email on my site — I’ll let you know when my book “Broken Prices”📖 is out. It will make concepts like “the right denominator” feel simple and intuitive. 👉 SoundMoneyRoad.com #Bitcoin #SoundMoney #BrokenPrices #Macro #Finance image