Sina 21st

A summary of my views on $MSTR Out in public Either way you won't get hype from me

Our analysis of where Bitcoin is right now given the macro landscape and on-chain dynamics, emailed today to subscribers (link: https://21stcapital.com/bi/).

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A guy named Josh predicted months ago that the price would reach $84K on this exact date—and it did. Now, all of Bitcoin Twitter is swooning over him, asking for more prophecies. He’s saying that from here, we’re headed straight to the moon, all the way to $444K. There’s a particular obsession among retail investors with predictions. That’s why PlanB became so famous—people believed he was a prophet. Now, they have found a new messiah. Reminds me of last year when a very successful influencer told me: Look, the key to success on Twitter is understanding your audience. Think about the average person’s intelligence level—on social media, the kind of content they engage with always rises to the top.

DeFi platforms deliberately do not highlight the main risk of earning yield: Your principal is at risk! Where does the yield they offer come from? From taking risks with your own capital. If someone understands this simple concept, they won’t lose their money in the bankruptcies of BlockFi, Celsius, Luna, Voyager, FTX and countless similar cases. Earning yield on idle capital sounds like a great idea—until you ignore the risk to your principal. If U.S. treasuries or a bank—backed by the full faith of law, courts, and regulatory bodies—pay interest, that’s one thing. But when an unregulated coin offers yield, it’s an entirely different thing. The real yield in DeFi is you.

Only a few days to go! Bitcoin Intelligence is About to Launch! Next week, we're launching Bitcoin Intelligence—the ultimate Bitcoin analytics platform you've been asking for. It includes: - Bitcoin data & live charts with our models (Quantile Model, VPLI, Power Law, etc.) - Video analyses - The Bitcoin Intelligence Report (Newsletter) All in one dashboard. Covering macroeconomics, on-chain data, price dynamics, and derivatives. After two decades of data modeling, a decade of studying Bitcoin, and years of publishing Bitcoin analysis, it's time to take things to the next level. And I’m not alone—we’re working with a team of top Bitcoin analysts to bring you the insights you deserve. Early access is opening soon, and we’d love for you to be among the first to experience it. Watch the short video introducing Bitcoin Intelligence, and find the waitlist link here: https://www.21stcapital.com/waitlist-bi

The Bitcoin Intelligence is About to Launch! We have something exciting to share. Next week, we are launching the ultimate Bitcoin analytics platform – Bitcoin Intelligence – which you have been asking for all along. It includes: 1- Bitcoin data & live charts with our models (Quantile Model, VPLI, Power Law, etc.) 2- Video analyses 3- Newsletter: The Bitcoin Intelligence Report All three will be accessible in one dashboard. And it covers updates on macroeconomics, on-chain data, price dynamics, and derivatives. After two decades of data modeling, a decade of studying Bitcoin, years of publishing Bitcoin analysis on social media, and many requests throughout last year, I am ready to take things to the next level. And I am not alone; we will be working with a team of top Bitcoin analysts to bring you the content you deserve. We’re soon opening early access, and we’d love for you to be among the first to experience it. Watch a short video introducing Bitcoin Intelligence. And find the link to the waitlist here: https://t.co/s6w6lQ9jNf

In the Javier Milei pump and dump story, one of the most interesting revelations is that Dave Portnoy (a well-known figure in online betting) knew in advance that this meme coin was going to be listed and bought in early. The meme coin’s creator had been in close contact with him, telling him about his connection to Milei and the token launch. Portnoy himself admitted, “I bought as much as I could in the first ten minutes.” But when Milei backed out and deleted his tweet, everyone dumped, and Portnoy took a loss. Eventually, he and the coin’s creator agreed to reimburse him for his losses. First, this fool literally confessed to insider trading on Twitter. Second, if you’re trading these kinds of things, pay attention to who you’re up against. The insiders always know when a token will launch—they’re ready to buy before you and dump before you. The game is rigged against you from the start.

Reflections on altcoins and the Bitcoin maximalist movement Bitcoin maximalism was a reactionary movement to the unbearable magnitude of fraud and grift that existed in altcoins. Many are prior altcoiners who got burnt and learned a hard lesson. Most maximalists I know have no issue with tech experimentation. The issue has always been the grift of selling tokens that eventually became a casino masquerading as a software business. And when 99% of an industry is vaporware tokens, the whole category gets rejected. Interestingly, this intolerant minority has been proven right time and again over the last 16 years. Every single “next bitcoin” project has failed. Many high-profile anti-maxis (e.g., Mashinsky) turned out to be actual frauds. And most alts disparaged by maxis ended up underperforming Bitcoin over time. You may not like maxi’s who “blindly” reject the value of the whole altcoin space. But you cannot deny that people who listened to maxis were saved from numerous scams in the space. And they outperformed most altcoins too. Maxis decided to promote only the thing they cannot print or manipulate. By doing so they closed their own door to grift. When you cannot sell a token little incentive is left for nonsense. Maxis self-selected out of the shade and stayed clean (for the most part) in a dirty industry. That is not to say everything is cool. As maxis were proven right on many issues, grifters adopted the label maxi to appear legit but are deep down the same old. Some are using the label for marketing without really understanding what Bitcoin is. There are many that I disagree with. I am myself blocked by several big mouth maxi-marketers. But nonetheless the only safe space in this ocean of grift and fraud is Bitcoin. I have studied this space since 2015, and I am yet to find a truly viable and sustainable idea in the 1000’s of token that have launched since except in stablecoins. It has always been about the tokens not the software. It has always been about the gamble not the tech. No one cares about the fake use case and utility. Everyone is in for the get rich quick. In the end, it has become clear to me that alts have always been memes. Memecoins masquerading as tech. Which are now being replaced by pure memecoins. In the end, the honest, value-adding, positive sum, incorruptible money wins. And I am happy to have been Bitcoin-only since day one.

Are we topping here? I see that people are equating the consolidation below $100K with the consolidation at the top of 2021 This is where having a battery of Bitcoin valuation models comes in handy. Today is nothing like 2021. The VPLI index was at 93/100 in 2021, showing extreme overvaluation. But today VPLI = 54, nearly neutral valuation.