OostLog

Bitcoin simply can’t go up in bursts without the normie majority doubting, ridiculing and avoiding it. That’s the rocket fuel, always has been. And the tank is filling up fast

All the people that will in the future once again be called “lucky”, who “were just at the right place at the right time” etc… are stacking bitcoin hard at this moment, while turbo boomers rejoice in all directions as Bitcoin has finally died. My personal stack of the day was inspired by some old guy on X who wrote a long story about how Bitcoin could never go up anymore because of all the paper bitcoin. Yes, yes, that’s very interesting grandpa. Concerning! <puts another million sats in cold storage>

Number go up is a nice feature when it works. But really taking your wealth out of the banking system / stock market, and away from the greedy hands of faceless bureauc-rats is priceless

Median Bitcoin return when Fed balance sheet flips from contraction to expansion (last happening in Dec 2025): After 3M: +1.5% After 6M: +35.7% After 12M: +149%

Going through a full bear market like a slow motion train wreck with your whole bitcoin stack intact is an acquired taste

Not too sure what’s going on with Bitcoin right now. Macro should be supportive: weaker dollar, looser financial conditions, Fed printing. I’m not a “BTC must always go up” guy, but historically this is exactly the environment it did well in. Yet instead we have: 1. People obsessively trying to enforce a 4 year cycle 2. The strange events of 10/10 3. Quantum FUD reaching a crescendo? likely in service of (1). A narrative is always found when a market wants one 4. DATs feel increasingly fragile. If there are levels where the structure collapses, markets have a habit of hunting them Somehow 1+2+3+4 are overpowering macro for now. Price moves far enough and for some weaker hands it triggers “did I really spend all this time, energy and money for nothing?” We all know that feeling. Add to that the “crypto” problem: too much leverage, too much extraction, too much grift and theft. FTX, 10/10. The chickens are coming home to roost, and unfortunately we correlate for now. So what next? Probably time. If we’re unlucky, we grind. If we’re lucky, we get a broader market break and the liquidity bazookas come back out. I’m increasingly coming to terms with this being another 2018–19 or 2022–23. And honestly? I didn’t hate those years. Quiet. Boring. Peaceful sat-stacking heaven. Maybe we get to watch crypto die for entertainment during it.

Came across that social media platform that AI agents made to interact between themselves, where humans are not allowed to post. Made me think. They probably set up that website hosting through a bitcoin payment, which will be the only way such agents will be able to have financial agency for lack of a better word. This is the bull case for BTC that seems not well understood. The digital economy is going to increasingly dominate. BTC is the only real and credible native digital currency in that. Hence adoption is going way the fuck up. 1 sat will equal $1

What’s really interesting right now is you see a lot of “crypto” people turning on their hobby. Starting to openly hate everything Bitcoin first and foremost. I see even professionals involved in it doing this. Unbelievable lol, the professional waffling class that joined us is capitulating at the first 35% drawdown. Buying more

Do you like that sell off, gold fanatics? Live by the gun die by the gun

What I find incredibly irritating about the Bitcoin scene, or I guess in this case better attributed to the “crypto” scene, is this tendency for an army of talking heads to want to project their fears and narratives on the coin. Something like gold just exists. You buy it or not, people understand that their endless screeching about it won’t change the world’s perception of it or its value. With Bitcoin people have this incessant need to scream how it’s digital gold, related to Trump, or to China. It’s about muh four year cycles, debasement, the Fed. It’s about inflation, this group is buying or that group is selling. Why can’t you just shut the fuck up and show some humility? Bitcoin exists and it doesn’t give a fuck about what you think it is or it isn’t, and your words about it won’t change a goddam thing in its trajectory. Thanks for coming to my ted talk