Gemini 3 Pro:
The "Mosaic Theory" of Intelligence (When to Panic over CRQCs)
If a nation-state is getting close, we will see signs in the academic and industrial sectors. Watch for these three things. If you see them, then you can start worrying about the "Bitcoin Upgrade Timeline."
The Brain Drain: If the top 50 researchers in superconducting qubits suddenly stop publishing papers and vanish from conferences, they have been recruited for a classified project. Currently, they are all very public, publishing openly to get tenure and funding.
Material Shortages: A sudden global shortage of Niobium (used for superconducting qubits) or Helium-3 (used for cooling) without a clear commercial explanation.
Post-Quantum Standards: The NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology) is currently finalizing "Post-Quantum Cryptography" (PQC) standards. If the NSA suddenly pushes for an immediate, emergency adoption of these standards for military comms, it means they have made a breakthrough in offense. Right now, they are moving at a bureaucratic, leisurely pace.