//The Wire//2300Z December 22, 2025//
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//BLUF: US SEIZES SECOND OIL TANKER IN CARIBBEAN, THIRD TANKER SEIZURE IMMINENT. AUSTRALIA INCREASES SECURITY AT POPULATED GATHERING PLACES.//
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-International Events-
Netherlands: This evening a vehicle ramming incident was reported in the town of Nunspeet, to the east of Amsterdam. 10x people were wounded during the incident, which involved a vehicle ramming into a crowd during a Christmas parade.
Analyst Comment: At the moment it's not certain as to if this was a deliberate attack, or an accident. The parade itself was taking place in the dark, as it was organized around the viewing of Christmas lights. Since this took place in the Netherlands, it may take some time for more details to come to light.
Caribbean: The Tanker Wars have continued to expand in scope as the US targets multiple tanker vessels throughout the region. On Saturday, the United States seized the M/T *CENTURIES*, a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) flagged out of Panama and registered to a Chinese company.
Sunday afternoon the US Coast Guard was observed to be in pursuit of a third vessel, the M/T *BELLA 1*, a stateless tanker vessel illegally flying the flag of Guyana. This vessel is well-known to smuggle crude to the Iranians in violation of US sanctions.
Australia: Fortification efforts have been observed at Bondi Beach, which have been emplaced for the memorial event that was held in the park over the weekend.
Analyst Comment: Emplacing obstacles at a site that has already been attacked is a strong indicator that the threats are not over yet. Granted, it's cheap to move around blocks of concrete with a forklift, so it makes sense to put them up for the holiday season. However, both of the threats presented to Bondi Beach have been related to small-arms attacks, and not vehicle ramming threats. This indicates that either the threats of further attacks are genuine, or somebody thinks they might be.
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Analyst Comments: In the Caribbean, it would seem as though the tanker wars have begun. However, the situation might be a bit more complicated than simply conducting a heist for oil, and the target vessels themselves have pointed to the reasoning for the interdictions. Firstly and most importantly, the pretense of this mission being solely about narcotics trafficking has been dropped; the White House has shifted into also targeting oil vessels without much comment, so at least they're being more honest now.
However, even though it's about the oil, there's a bit more to the story. Though Venezuelan crude is quite high-grade, the US doesn't actually need it as the oil that's been seized is negligible in terms of our own domestic production. As such, it's probably less about the US getting the oil, and more about making sure that China doesn't. The war in the Pacific (which looks increasingly more likely to take place within the next few years) will 100% be a war largely decided by energy: Just like WW2, the Pacific Theater is big and logistics and fuel are the name of the game. Straight-up stealing Venezuela's oil is one way to impact China's logistical supply lines before a war ever begins, and this doctrine is very similar (in many ways) to what transpired between the US and Japan before the war kicked off back in 1941.
This history may seem irrelevant, however the seizure of the M/T *CENTURIES* gives us a clue. The *CENTURIES* itself was not a stateless vessel, nor was it a sanctioned vessel. Everything about the paperwork for the *CENTURIES* was completely legal and above board...it was the oil onboard that was the illegal part that was subject to US sanctions. This is very telling as the US has altered the deal of the blockade, and Venezuela is probably hoping that they don't alter it any further.
Regarding the other vessel that is being sought right now, the *BELLA 1*, her status is less clear. However, doctrinally speaking all nations that have a substantial naval force would agree that the *BELLA* is up to no good and in violation of not just US sanctions, but the standards of maritime decorum generally agreed upon by everybody (stateless vessels with no registration are a big no-no in the maritime community). Some reports state that the USCG attempted to board her at least once, but somehow failed. Right now that's just a rumor which is probably inaccurate. What's more likely is that the USCG hailed her via radio and she refused to stop her engines to allow boarding, and is attempting to make a run for Venezuelan waters. If the US Navy and the US Coast Guard so desire to board a vessel, it shall happen regardless of the opinions of those onboard. So it's likely that the USCG is shadowing her for the time being, until a higher-tier of military unit gets in position to conduct a more kinetic interdiction. Of note, the *BELLA 1* is currently transmitting distress calls over the radio, wanting fellow vessels to save them from being boarded. This is the maritime equivalent of calling the cops on your own drug dealer because the deal went bad, so it's unlikely that anybody is going to help them evade pursuit.
Analyst: S2A1
Research:
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
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