23 US States Are At High Risk Of (Or In) Recession Currently
23 US States Are At High Risk Of (Or In) Recession Currently
U.S. GDP is made up of many smaller, distinct state economies fueling national growth.
In 2025, states responsible for about a third of U.S. GDP are in recession, or face high recession risk.
Another third are expanding, including Florida and Utah, based on payrolls, employment, and other key economic data.
This graphic,
, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.
<a href="/s3/files/inline-images/RecessionRiskwithFooter-1-1.jpg?itok=RucblgG7" rel="nofollow"><img height="658" width="500" src="![image](https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_mobile/public/inline-images/RecessionRiskwithFooter-1-1.jpg?itok=RucblgG7")
alt=""/></a>
Where Recession Risk is Highest in America
To analyze recession risk, Zandi looks at state-level economic activity. This included a range of data such as unemployment, building permits, retail sales, industrial activity, delinquency rates, and tax revenues.
States were then categorized into three buckets based on these factors as of October 2025:
In Recession/High Risk
Treading Water
Expanding
State/District
Business Cycle Status
Share of U.S. GDP (%)
Georgia
In Recession/High Risk
3.03
Montana
In Recession/High Risk
0.25
Wyoming
In Recession/High Risk
0.18
Michigan
In Recession/High Risk
2.44
Massachusetts
In Recession/High Risk
2.73
Mississippi
In Recession/High Risk
0.53
Minnesota
In Recession/High Risk
1.70
Kansas
In Recession/High Risk
0.80
Rhode Island
In Recession/High Risk
0.28
Delaware
In Recession/High Risk
0.34
Washington
In Recession/High Risk
3.02
Illinois
In Recession/High Risk
3.85
West Virginia
In Recession/High Risk
0.36
New Hampshire
In Recession/High Risk
0.42
Maryland
In Recession/High Risk
1.86
Virginia
In Recession/High Risk
2.66
South Dakota
In Recession/High Risk
0.25
Connecticut
In Recession/High Risk
1.27
Oregon
In Recession/High Risk
1.14
Iowa
In Recession/High Risk
0.86
New Jersey
In Recession/High Risk
2.93
Maine
In Recession/High Risk
0.33
District of Columbia
In Recession/High Risk
0.64
Missouri
Treading Water
1.54
Ohio
Treading Water
3.14
Hawaii
Treading Water
0.39
Arkansas
Treading Water
0.65
New Mexico
Treading Water
0.49
Tennessee
Treading Water
1.87
New York
Treading Water
7.92
Vermont
Treading Water
0.16
Alaska
Treading Water
0.24
Colorado
Treading Water
1.92
California
Treading Water
14.50
Nevada
Treading Water
0.86
South Carolina
Expanding
1.18
Texas
Expanding
9.41
Oklahoma
Expanding
0.92
Idaho
Expanding
0.43
Kentucky
Expanding
0.99
Alabama
Expanding
1.10
Indiana
Expanding
1.81
Nebraska
Expanding
0.63
North Carolina
Expanding
2.86
Louisiana
Expanding
1.11
Florida
Expanding
5.78
North Dakota
Expanding
0.26
Pennsylvania
Expanding
3.54
Arizona
Expanding
1.88
Wisconsin
Expanding
1.53
Utah
Expanding
1.02
Currently, many coastal, Northeastern states are facing some of the worst economic conditions.
In Maine, for instance, year-over-year GDP growth is just 0.8% as of Q2 2025, compared to the U.S. average of 2.1%. Meanwhile, Washington, D.C.’s unemployment rate was 6.4% in July, significantly higher than the 4.6% U.S. average given sweeping federal cuts.
According to Zandi’s analysis, New York and California are “Treading Water”, together responsible for driving over 22% of U.S. GDP.
In comparison, Texas, which fuels 9.4% of U.S. economic growth is expanding. Unemployment rates of 4.0% in July remain below the U.S. average. Additionally, the Texas economy is growing faster than the nation, while income growth rose 6.3% annually as of Q2 2025, outpacing the national average.
To learn more about this topic, check out this 
on unemployment by state in 2025.
<a href="/users/tyler-durden" rel="nofollow">Tyler Durden</a>
Mon, 12/22/2025 - 14:25
Visual Capitalist
Mapped: Recession Risk by State in 2025
As of October, 23 states—driving about a third of U.S. GDP—face high recession risk, or are already in recession.
alt=""/></a>
Where Recession Risk is Highest in America
To analyze recession risk, Zandi looks at state-level economic activity. This included a range of data such as unemployment, building permits, retail sales, industrial activity, delinquency rates, and tax revenues.
States were then categorized into three buckets based on these factors as of October 2025:
In Recession/High Risk
Treading Water
Expanding
State/District
Business Cycle Status
Share of U.S. GDP (%)
Georgia
In Recession/High Risk
3.03
Montana
In Recession/High Risk
0.25
Wyoming
In Recession/High Risk
0.18
Michigan
In Recession/High Risk
2.44
Massachusetts
In Recession/High Risk
2.73
Mississippi
In Recession/High Risk
0.53
Minnesota
In Recession/High Risk
1.70
Kansas
In Recession/High Risk
0.80
Rhode Island
In Recession/High Risk
0.28
Delaware
In Recession/High Risk
0.34
Washington
In Recession/High Risk
3.02
Illinois
In Recession/High Risk
3.85
West Virginia
In Recession/High Risk
0.36
New Hampshire
In Recession/High Risk
0.42
Maryland
In Recession/High Risk
1.86
Virginia
In Recession/High Risk
2.66
South Dakota
In Recession/High Risk
0.25
Connecticut
In Recession/High Risk
1.27
Oregon
In Recession/High Risk
1.14
Iowa
In Recession/High Risk
0.86
New Jersey
In Recession/High Risk
2.93
Maine
In Recession/High Risk
0.33
District of Columbia
In Recession/High Risk
0.64
Missouri
Treading Water
1.54
Ohio
Treading Water
3.14
Hawaii
Treading Water
0.39
Arkansas
Treading Water
0.65
New Mexico
Treading Water
0.49
Tennessee
Treading Water
1.87
New York
Treading Water
7.92
Vermont
Treading Water
0.16
Alaska
Treading Water
0.24
Colorado
Treading Water
1.92
California
Treading Water
14.50
Nevada
Treading Water
0.86
South Carolina
Expanding
1.18
Texas
Expanding
9.41
Oklahoma
Expanding
0.92
Idaho
Expanding
0.43
Kentucky
Expanding
0.99
Alabama
Expanding
1.10
Indiana
Expanding
1.81
Nebraska
Expanding
0.63
North Carolina
Expanding
2.86
Louisiana
Expanding
1.11
Florida
Expanding
5.78
North Dakota
Expanding
0.26
Pennsylvania
Expanding
3.54
Arizona
Expanding
1.88
Wisconsin
Expanding
1.53
Utah
Expanding
1.02
Currently, many coastal, Northeastern states are facing some of the worst economic conditions.
In Maine, for instance, year-over-year GDP growth is just 0.8% as of Q2 2025, compared to the U.S. average of 2.1%. Meanwhile, Washington, D.C.’s unemployment rate was 6.4% in July, significantly higher than the 4.6% U.S. average given sweeping federal cuts.
According to Zandi’s analysis, New York and California are “Treading Water”, together responsible for driving over 22% of U.S. GDP.
In comparison, Texas, which fuels 9.4% of U.S. economic growth is expanding. Unemployment rates of 4.0% in July remain below the U.S. average. Additionally, the Texas economy is growing faster than the nation, while income growth rose 6.3% annually as of Q2 2025, outpacing the national average.
To learn more about this topic, check out this Where Unemployment is Highest in America
What We’re Showing
This map shows the unemployment rate by U.S. state as of June 2025, based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The f...
23 US States Are At High Risk Of (Or In) Recession Currently | ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
The earnings generated by ownership of capital go mostly to the very top of the wealth-power pyramid: the majority of income from capital flows to the top 0.25%, with the rest dribbling down to the top 5%.
The bottom 50%'s share of financial assets amounts to signal noise--2.6%.
This imbalance is so extreme that it will catalyze social disorder, yet to call it unsustainable is "insane."
The health of the non-elites has reached crisis levels, yet this too is unremarkable because the model has a "solution": more costly medications that must be taken for life: highly profitable, so all is well.
The hallucination that this is all wonderfully sustainable reveals the dominance of the financial model of how the world works. That society is breaking down is of no concern because natural gas is so abundant that we can easily power up AI data centers, and GDP is rising.
The problem is we only manage what we measure, and all the financial analysis "trains" on its own output. Those staring at screens of soaring stocks and corporate profits declare this is the best possible world while the social order breaks down around them.
A rebalancing of the economy and society will ultimately prove very positive, but first we must navigate the model collapse of insane financial extremes, extremes that are unrecognized in the current hallucination. The collision of the self-reinforcing hallucination with the real world will be challenging.
If we accept that the dominant models have lost their capacity to adapt, and that the imbalance between economic forces and society have reached extremes that demand rebalancing, we can return to the real world in good order. If we cling to the hallucination, then over the falls we will go.
* * *
My new book 
The brass cases were actually inscribed with Antifa slogans and a "furry" meme, though the prime suspect, Tyler Robinson, is a far-left gay man who was living with his transgender boyfriend at the time. According to 
The bid to cover was 2.543, down from 2.684 in November and the lowest since September; it was also below the 6-auction average of 2.623.
The internals were also mediocre at best, with Indirects awarded just 53.21, down from 58.07 and the lowest since March 2023. And with Directs taking down 34.05%, higher than November's 30.74% and above the recent average of 31.69%, Dealers were left holding 12.74% of the sale, the most since June.
Overall, this was a soft, subpar auction, with weak demand metrics, confirmed by the jump in 10y yields to session highs after the break.
On Thursday a group of House Republicans met to hash out the framework for an intraparty compromise that will only place restrictions on lawmakers, with a target date of March for a floor vote.
"I think we’re going to deliver a really strong product in 2026," said Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) in a statement to the 
Hiding in Plain Site
As usual, this critical turning point in metals, as well as its neon-flashing signal of a globally debt-sick financial and currency system, went largely unnoticed.
In financial markets, the daily buzz remained forever focused on the usual suspects, from BTC’s massive falls, MicroStrategy’s losing gambit (-59% YTD) and an over-stretched stock market to crude oil’s annual loss or the never-ending deflation/inflation or strong vs. weak DXY debates.
These are, of course, important debates and topics. Most investors understand them, and thus most investors, bull or bear, have an opinion about them. That is why they fill headlines.
Hiding in Intentional Complexity
But often, in fact nearly always, the real and more nuanced signals, as well as market warnings, are deliberately omitted from the Zeitgeist.
This is not only because such signals are a threat to 
This week, some of those efforts faced setbacks and challenges in blue states like Washington and Illinois.
In Washington state, many have developed what seems a certain appetite for compelled speech.
For example, Democrats recently pushed through legislation that would have compelled priests and other clerics to rat out congregants who confessed to certain criminal acts.
Despite objections from many of us that the law was flagrantly unconstitutional, the Democratic-controlled legislature and Democratic governor pushed it through.
The Catholic Church responded to the enactment by telling priests that any compliance would lead to their excommunication.
U.S. District Court Judge Iain D. Johnston 
Investigators released video showing a severely damaged white Kia Sorento in a residential parking area near apartment blocks in Moscow's Orekhovo-Borisovo Yuzhnoye district. The doors were shown to be blown out and debris was strewn everywhere.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov later indicated that President Vladimir Putin was informed of Sarvarov's death immediately.
BBC 
