Strategy Sets Up $1.4 Billion Cash Reserve, Lifts Bitcoin Stash To 650,000BTC Strategy Sets Up $1.4 Billion Cash Reserve, Lifts Bitcoin Stash To 650,000BTC Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the world’s largest public Bitcoin holder, is creating a $1.44 billion US dollar reserve to support dividend payments on its preferred stock and interest on its outstanding debt. image Strategy on Monday   the establishment of a US dollar reserve funded through proceeds from the sale of Class A common stock under its at-the-market offering program. “Strategy’s current intention is to maintain a USD Reserve in an amount sufficient to fund at least twelve months of its dividends, and Strategy intends to strengthen the USD Reserve over time, with the goal of ultimately covering 24 months or more of its dividends,” the company said. Alongside the launch of the reserve, Strategy disclosed an additional purchase of 130 Bitcoin for $11.7 million, bringing its total holdings to a symbolic value of 650,000 BTC, acquired for $48.38 billion. https://twitter.com/search?q=%24MSTR&src=ctag&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw — Michael Saylor (@saylor) Notably, while MSTR has been in decline, the last few days have seen the preferreds bid... image The Strategy preferred now yields from 9% to nearly 13%, considerably above the 6% rate on preferred stock from major banks like Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase. Primary means for funding dividends According to the Strategy’s company update on Monday, its US dollar reserve will be the primary source of funding dividends paid to holders of its preferred stocks, debt and common equity. The update details that the $1.44 billion reserve is 2.2% of Strategy’s enterprise value, 2.8% of equity value and 2.4% of Bitcoin value. image Strategy’s funding of the USD Reserve. Source: Strategy “We believe this improves the quality and attractiveness of our preferreds, debt and common equity,” Strategy said, adding that it raised $1.44 billion in less than nine trading days by selling its common A stock MSTR. What if we start adding green dots? — Michael Saylor (@saylor) USD reserve to complement BTC holdings “Establishing a USD Reserve to complement our BTC Reserve marks the next step in our evolution,” Strategy founder Saylor said, adding that the new financial tool will better position the company to navigate short-term market volatility. Strategy CEO and president Phong Le https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20251201150635/en/Strategy-Announces-Establishment-of-%241.44-Billion-USD-Reserve-and-Updates-FY-2025-Guidance  that the company’s latest BTC purchase — made in the past two weeks — brings its total holdings to 650,000 BTC, or about 3.1% of the 21 million BTC that will ever exist. image An excerpt from Strategy’s Form 8-K. Source: SEC “In recognition of the important role we play in the broader Bitcoin ecosystem, and to further reinforce our commitment to our credit investors and shareholders, we have established a USD Reserve that currently covers 21 months of dividends,” Le noted. Strategy lowers 2025 KPI targets Alongside its reserve and 650,000 BTC holdings, Strategy has significantly lowered its KPI targets and corresponding assumptions for 2025 results. According to the update, Strategy now expects its BTC yield to end the year between 22% and 26%, with a projected BTC price estimate of $85,000–$110,000 by Dec. 31. image Revised assumptions and corresponding results for 2025. Source: Strategy The company has also significantly reduced its targeted BTC gains, cutting its previous expectation of $20 billion to a revised range of between $8.4 billion and $12.8 billion. The revised target for operating income is between $7 billion and $9.5 billion, down from the originally projected $34 billion. Mon, 12/01/2025 - 11:40
Sky's The Limit Sky's The Limit By Benjamin Picton, Senior Market Strategist at Rabobank Major US indices closed high on Friday evening as trading resumed following the Thanksgiving holiday. The S&P500 was up 0.54%, the Dow up 0.61% and the NASDAQ up 0.65%, but US equity futures are pointed lower this morning and Asian equity markets are showing mixed performance. Bond yields are mostly higher. Yields on US 10s rose 2.1bps to 4.03% while yields on 2-year JGBs reached their highest level in 17 years after BOJ Governor Ueda hinted that he is seriously considering a rate hike this month. Brent crude is up 1.20% in early trade following news that Ukrainian drones had struck two Russian ‘Shadow Fleet’ tankers bound for the Novorossiysk oil terminal in the Black Sea. The terminal itself was later struck by Ukrainian drones, prompting a halt in operations, while Moldova reported incursions of Russian drones into its own airspace in an apparent continuation of Russia’s ‘grey-zone’ tactics that has seen Russian drones violate the airspace of Poland, Germany, Denmark, Norway, Romania and the Baltic states in recent months. NATO allies have stationed fighter jets in Poland under Operation Eastern Sentry that can be scrambled to shoot down Russian drones, but this is a high cost response to the very cheap probing of NATO’s defences that is being conducted by the Kremlin. This as the Wall Street Journal reports that ‘https://public-eur.mkt.dynamics.com/api/orgs/285245b1-7c6f-ef11-a66d-000d3a4b6c6a/r/Z16rkvrSvkSIm9QKUssCAAEAAAA?msdynmkt_target=%7B%22TargetUrl%22%3A%22https%253A%252F%252Fwww.wsj.com%252Fworld%252Frussia-gains-the-upper-hand-in-the-drone-battle-once-ukraines-forte-803d242e%22%2C%22RedirectOptions%22%3A%7B%225%22%3Anull%2C%221%22%3Anull%2C%222%22%3A%7B%22utm_medium%22%3A%22email%22%2C%22utm_term%22%3A%22N%2FA%22%2C%22utm_source%22%3A%22dynamics-rr%22%2C%22utm_content%22%3A%22Email%20342%22%2C%22utm_campaign%22%3A%22SN%3A%20Email%20342%208fddb5%22%7D%7D%7D&msdynmkt_digest=lCj8LHu6WMCBwkDoAKyVhKtMqGzaN6cpioAItW1O0us%3D&msdynmkt_secretVersion=7bb221762d0c46939816d3a5592b1359 ’ and quotes a Ukrainian drone unit commander who says that Russia is receiving superior supply chain support from China than Ukraine is receiving from the United States and Europe combined. Ukrainian officials met with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Florida to progress talks to end the Russo-Ukrainian war. The Ukrainian delegation was missing erstwhile Zelenskyy Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak, who has resigned his position following anti-corruption raids on his home relating to investigations over illegal kickbacks in Ukraine’s energy sector. Rubio told journalists after the meeting that progress had been made but that there was still more work to be done. Witkoff is set to travel to Moscow today to meet with President Putin to progress a deal. Yermak’s departure may have placed Zelenskyy further on the back foot in the bargaining process as his image is tarnished by whiffs of corruption at the heart of his government. President Trump speculated as much aboard Air Force One, where he told journalists that he thought there was a “good chance” of a deal to end the war being signed, but that the Ukrainian corruption scandal was “not helpful”. While negotiations over the fate of Ukraine continue, another risk event for energy markets continues to unfold in Venezuela. President Trump took to Truth Social over the weekend to declare “THE AIRSPACE ABOVE AND SURROUNDING VENEZUELA TO BE CLOSED IN ITS ENTIRETY.” This comes following the largest US deployment of military assets to the region in decades and series of missile strikes on small boats thought to be engaged in drug smuggling. image The purpose of US pressure on Venezuela has very likely now expanded from enforcement action against drug trafficking to efforts toward regime change (see https://public-eur.mkt.dynamics.com/api/orgs/285245b1-7c6f-ef11-a66d-000d3a4b6c6a/r/Z16rkvrSvkSIm9QKUssCAAIAAAA?msdynmkt_target=%7B%22TargetUrl%22%3A%22https%253A%252F%252Fpublic-eur.mkt.dynamics.com%252Fapi%252Forgs%252F285245b1-7c6f-ef11-a66d-000d3a4b6c6a%252Fr%252FPfv5EQyBPUisSjGjp54AAAEAAAA%253Fmsdynmkt_target%253D%257B%2522TargetUrl%2522%25253A%2522https%2525253A%2525252F%2525252Fmedia.rabobank.com%2525252Fm%2525252F1017a85c2aa73c4b%2525252Foriginal%2525252Fvene_zuela_vidi_vici.pdf%2522%25252C%2522RedirectOptions%2522%25253A%257B%25225%2522%25253Anull%25252C%25221%2522%25253Anull%25252C%25222%2522%25253A%257B%2522utm_medium%2522%25253A%2522email%2522%25252C%2522utm_term%2522%25253A%2522N%25252FA%2522%25252C%2522utm_source%2522%25253A%2522dynamics-rr%2522%25252C%2522utm_content%2522%25253A%2522Email%2520336%2522%25252C%2522utm_campaign%2522%25253A%2522SN%25253A%2520Email%2520336%2520af03ed%2522%257D%257D%257D%2526msdynmkt_digest%253DX7IwLk3KWD%25252F0vUlGEgwl88IMi7l4GzBR9tmWzHzAb9M%25253D%2526msdynmkt_secretVersion%253D7bb221762d0c46939816d3a5592b1359%22%2C%22RedirectOptions%22%3A%7B%225%22%3Anull%2C%221%22%3Anull%2C%222%22%3A%7B%22utm_medium%22%3A%22email%22%2C%22utm_term%22%3A%22N%2FA%22%2C%22utm_source%22%3A%22dynamics-rr%22%2C%22utm_content%22%3A%22Email%20342%22%2C%22utm_campaign%22%3A%22SN%3A%20Email%20342%208fddb5%22%7D%7D%7D&msdynmkt_digest=xKEuteTl5dHjgjU359CQA7h%2BQv%2FZuayCMNZlBDUGIrM%3D&msdynmkt_secretVersion=7bb221762d0c46939816d3a5592b1359 for RaboResearch’s further thoughts). Donald Trump told journalists aboard Air Force Once that he had been in contact with Venezuelan President Maduro over the phone, but didn’t disclose details of the conversation. He had previously indicated that the US would soon begin land strikes in Venezuela. “If we can save lives, if we can do things the easy way that’s fine. If we have to do it the hard way, that’s fine too.” Mon, 12/01/2025 - 11:25
France & UK Still Insist On Sending Troops To Ukraine, In Effort To Sabotage Trump Peace Plan France & UK Still Insist On Sending Troops To Ukraine, In Effort To Sabotage Trump Peace Plan As we reported , the important Miami meeting wherein American and Ukrainian delegations hammered out a revised ceasefire draft for some five hours on Sunday did not have European participation. But this is where the real deal-making is taking place. Trump envoy Steve Witkoff is en route to Moscow, where he's expected to meet with President Putin on Tuesday, in order to present where things stand on the peace plan. The Miami meeting reportedly focused on where the new de facto border would be in the east, after the 19-point plan featured significant territorial concessions in the Donbass and Crimea. As for Europe, is still touting a "coalition of the willing" which are vowing ongoing military support to the Zelensky government. At this moment, France and the United Kingdom especially are continuing to push for the deployment of troops from NATO-member states to Ukraine as part of their version of peace settlement, despite this being very obviously unacceptable to Moscow.  image Last week Politico reported that when US Secretary of State Marco Rubio joined a discussion involving the coalition of the willing via phone call, he made clear to all that the White House wants a peace agreement in place before committing to any long-term security guarantees for Kiev. But UK Prime Minister Kier Starmer tried to push back, arguing that a "multinational force" would be essential for ensuring Ukraine’s future security. Bloomberg then saying that UK officials have already selected the military units they plan to deploy, based on several reconnaissance trips to Ukraine. France's President Emmanuel Macron proposed that such troops could operate in the capital area or western regions of the country, far from the front lines. But this would flagrantly cross all Russia's red lines. NATO troops on its doorstep was key Putin's decision-making in launching the 'special military operation' in the first place. It must be recalled that the original US-drafted 28-point peace plan, which leaked to the press and more recently was condensed down to 19 points, included an explicit prohibition on deploying NATO troops to Ukraine. The European-proposed counter-plan, which was also quickly leaked to the media, greatly softened that stance and laid out that instead of a blanket ban, NATO would not "permanently station troops under its command in Ukraine in peacetime." At a moment Trump's peace plan advances, and with Witkoff on his way to meet with President Putin, hawks in Europe are growing even more hawkish: ⚡️BREAKING: NATO may carry out a preemptive strike against Russia For the first time, the alliance is discussing the possibility of a preemptive strike on Russia in response to its hybrid attacks. Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, the head of NATO’s Military Committee, told… — NEXTA (@nexta_tv) Such intentionally vague language leaves open the possibility of NATO troop rotations into Ukraine. The Kremlin has time and again said it would not tolerate this, and such a move would lead to direct war with the West. Europe's plan also seeks to leave open a Ukrainian path to NATO, but this is also a sticking point which the US plan leaves out, given it would of course be dead on arrival if presented to Putin. Mon, 12/01/2025 - 11:05
Multiple Failures In Vetting Process Of Afghans, Says Tom Homan Multiple Failures In Vetting Process Of Afghans, Says Tom Homan There has been a massive failure in the vetting process that allowed Afghan nationals to enter the United States under the Biden administration, border czar Tom Homan said in a Nov. 30 with Fox News. image When the United States withdrew from Afghanistan in 2021, the Biden administration initiated the Operation Allies Welcome program to alongside U.S. authorities in Afghanistan over the previous two decades. “It’s the biggest national security failure in the history of the nation,“ Homan said, noting that the DHS Inspector General came out with a report at the time stating multiple failures in the vetting process. “People need to understand, in these third-world nations, they don’t have systems like we do. So, a lot of these Afghans, who did get here to get better, they had no identification at all. Not a single travel document, not one piece of identification. And we’re going to count on the people that run Afghanistan, the Taliban, to provide us any information who the bad guys were or who the good guys are? Certainly not.” On Nov. 26, a gunman shot two West Virginia National Guard members. One of the victims has since Enduring Welcome. More than 190,000 Afghan nationals were resettled in the United States as part of the effort, according to the State Department. A 2022 from the Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS’s) Office of Inspector General, mentioned by Homan in the interview, said that the Biden-era DHS failed to fully vet some of the 80,000 Afghans allowed entry into the United States at the time. An audit of 88,977 evacuee records inspected by authorities found that more than 11,000 recorded their birth date as Jan. 1. In addition, 7,800 had missing or invalid travel document numbers, the report said. More than 36,000 records listed “facilitation document” as the travel document type, and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) was unable to define what the “facilitation document” was, according to the DHS. The Epoch Times reached out to the DHS Office of Inspector General for comment but did not receive a response by publication time. Inspector General Joseph V. Cuffari was confirmed by the Senate to his post in 2019 during the first Trump administration. Following the attack on the two National Guard members, the State Department on Nov. 28 that it had “IMMEDIATELY paused visa issuance for individuals traveling on Afghan passports.” On the same day, Citizenship and Immigration Services Director Joseph B. Edlow in an X post that the agency had halted all asylum decisions “until we can ensure that every alien is vetted and screened to the maximum degree possible.” President Donald Trump said the asylum restriction  in June. The list includes Afghanistan, Iran, Somalia, and Turkmenistan. In the interview, Homan said approximately 10.5 million illegal immigrants had crossed into the United States under the previous administration. This figure does not include the hundreds of thousands who came via the CHNV program and the more than 2 million known gotaways, he said. CHNV was a Biden-era parole refers to illegal immigrants who evaded U.S. border patrol and law enforcement authorities after crossing the border. Since the Afghans were allowed entry via government programs, there are at least photographs and fingerprints of some of these individuals, Homan said, adding that the government has no details on the millions of gotaways. The current administration’s policies have ensured “the most secure border in the history of this nation,” Homan said. “Now we know who’s coming, now we clear who’s coming. We don’t have 10,000, up to 12,000 people a day, entering this country illegally,” he added. In a Nov. 13 , the CBP said the Trump administration delivered the sixth straight month of zero releases at the border in October. There were 7,899 Border Patrol apprehensions on the southwest border, approximately 95 percent lower than the monthly average of the prior administration. Mon, 12/01/2025 - 10:45
UK Man Arrested For Posing With Gun In Photo Taken While In The US UK Man Arrested For Posing With Gun In Photo Taken While In The US Last year during sweeping British protests triggered by the stabbing murders of three young girls at a dance recital by the radicalized 17-year-old child of Rwandan migrants, London Metropolitan Police Commissioner Mark Rowley threatened to have American citizens "arrested and extradited" to the UK for "stoking racial violence" (i.e. pointing out that third world migrants and often the children of third world migrants are a societal net negative and should be deported).  The event sparked a series of thousands of arrests of UK citizens for crimes as meager as posting memes online and hoisting British flags in the presence of immigrants.  In the past year at least 12,000 such arrests have been made in the name of "quelling hate speech", an ill defined violation based on arbitrary guidelines and left up the whims of leftist bureaucrats.  No US citizens have been extradited, likely because the action would start 1776 Part II and a handful of armed Americans delivered on a Carnival Cruise Liner would end up conquering the UK in a week or less. However, it would seem that the British authorities have decided to take out their frustrations on their own citizens who dare to visit the US to enjoy some of the freedoms they don't have at home.   A British IT consultant was arrested by West Yorkshire Police after posting pictures on LinkedIn of himself https://www.gbnews.com/news/yorkshire-british-man-arrested-gun-photo-us-holiday .  Jon Richelieu-Booth, 50, shared the photograph taken at a Florida homestead on August 13.  The post sparked a 13-week ordeal, which began with a police warning at his residence.  Officers cautioned him about online content and its "potential impact on others' feelings". image Despite Mr Richelieu-Booth’s offer to demonstrate the photograph's American origin, authorities chose to arrest him on August 24.  All charges were ultimately thrown out, but police continued to harass Booth until October, when they arrested him yet again for "bail violations".   Whilst the original firearms and stalking charges were dismissed, prosecutors pursued a public order offense regarding a separate social media post.  Mr Richelieu-Booth was scheduled to face Bradford magistrates on November 25th for allegedly displaying material intended to cause distress, but this charge was also eventually withdrawn.  He originally faced a potential prison sentence of six months if convicted. Elon Musk, who has been highly critical of the UK's censorship policies, reposted a to his 229 million followers on X, writing: “And this is why we have the first and second amendments in America...The first amendment in the US protects freedom of speech, while the second amendment relates to the right to bear arms..." image Though the incident has ended with Booth avoiding jail time, there is a cottage industry of Europeans traveling to the US to experience life away from progressive authoritarianism.  This includes shooting firearms for recreation.  Often these adventures are documented on YouTube and other platforms, and might be considered an embarrassment for some officials overseas.   Booth's arrest could be an attempt to chill the waters on British travelers who make life in America look "too good".  Some firearms are technically "legal" in the UK, but the application process is arduous and subject to arbitrary police examination, which is why only 0.25% of the population has successfully acquired a firearms certificate.  The behavior of UK police is reminiscent of a communist regime; no crime has been committed, but the government wants to dissuade from certain behaviors anyway.  A conviction isn't necessarily the goal.  Instead, the process is the punishment.  The ongoing struggle session for one man sends a warning to the rest of the populace.  The goal is to frighten the public into walking on eggshells.  It's much easier to control a population that censors itself.  The message is clear:  No matter where you travel in the world, the government at home owns you.   Mon, 12/01/2025 - 10:30
'Worse Than COVID': Weak US Manufacturing Surveys Signal Stagflation In November 'Worse Than COVID': Weak US Manufacturing Surveys Signal Stagflation In November This morning's survey data on the US manufacturing economy comes as the post-shutdown slump in 'soft' data has dominated desk conversations amid the vacuum of hard macro data... image But the picture remains mixed: S&P Global's US Manufacturing PMI BEAT expectations in November but dipped on a MoM basis from 52.5 to 52.2 (still in expansion territory and up from the 51.9 flash print). ISM's Manufacturing PMI MISSED expectations, dropping from 48.7 to 48.2 (well below the 49.0 expectation) and in contraction for the ninth month in a row. image Although the headline PMI signalled a further expansion of factory activity in November, "the health of the US manufacturing sector gets more worrying the more you scratch under the surface," according to Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. "The main impetus came from a strong rise in factory production, but growth in new order inflows slowed sharply, hinting at a marked weakening of demand growth." Under the hood, ISM shows Price Paid higher, and new orders and employment worsening... image For two successive months now, warehouses have filled with unsold stock to a degree not previously seen since comparable data were available in 2007. This unplanned accumulation of stock is usually a precursor to reduced production in the coming months. “Profit margins are meanwhile coming under pressure from a combination of disappointing sales, stiff competition and rising input costs, the latter widely linked to tariffs. In short, Williamson notes that manufacturers are making more goods but often not finding buyers for these products.  "This combination of sustained robust production growth alongside weaker than expected sales led to a worryingly steep rise in unsold inventories." ISM Respondents were pretty clear with blame for weakness being placed at Trump's feet in Washington: “New order entries are within the forecast. We have increased requests from customers to get their orders sooner. Transit time on imports seems to be longer.” (Machinery) “We are starting to institute more permanent changes due to the tariff environment. This includes reduction of staff, new guidance to shareholders, and development of additional offshore manufacturing that would have otherwise been for U.S. export.” (Transportation Equipment) “Tariffs and economic uncertainty continue to weigh on demand for adhesives and sealants, which are primarily used in building construction.” (Chemical Products) “No major changes at this time, but going into 2026, we expect to see big changes with cash flow and employee head count. The company has sold off a big part of the business that generated free cash while offering voluntary severance packages to anyone.” (Petroleum & Coal Products) “Business conditions remain soft as a result of higher costs from tariffs, the government shutdown, and increased global uncertainty.” (Miscellaneous Manufacturing) “The unstable market has made pricing fluctuate in a very volatile way; I have had to reduce suppliers for raw materials to maintain a better direct cost structure. Reducing my suppliers has reduced the availability of some items and created longer lead times.” (Fabricated Metal Products) “Business continues to be a struggle regarding long-term sourcing decisions based on tariffs and landing costs. External (or international) sourcing remains the lowest-cost solution compared to U.S. production/manufacturing. The delta is smaller now, reducing margins.” (Computer & Electronic Products) “The government shutdown has impacted our access to agricultural data, impacting agricultural markets and, as a result, decisions we make. Optimism for a tariff exemption on palm oil percolated but hasn’t come to fruition at this time.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products) “Trade confusion. At any given point, trade with our international partners is clouded and difficult. Suppliers are finding more and more errors when attempting to export to the U.S. — before I even have the opportunity to import. Freight organizations are also having difficulties overseas, contending with changing regulations and uncertainty. Conditions are more trying than during the coronavirus pandemic in terms of supply chain uncertainty.” (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components) “Domestic and export business have been lackluster. Our customers are taking prompt orders only and still don’t have confidence to build inventory, much less make expansion plans. In fact, most of any kind of ‘planning’ has been undermined by unpredictability due to inconsistent messaging from Washington. Artificial intelligence is in its infancy stages, producing confusing and most often inaccurate information. This also causes apprehensive consumer buying patterns, contributing to the challenge of forecasting demand.” (Wood Products) However, there is hope, as manufacturers have grown more optimistic about the year ahead, with the ending of the government shutdown helping lift confidence from the sharp drop suffered in October. "Optimism is being fueled by hopes of improved policy support, including lower interest rates, as well as greater political stability, though it is clear that uncertainty remains elevated and a drag on business growth in many firms, holding confidence well below levels seen at the start of the year.” Mon, 12/01/2025 - 10:08
Key Events This Busy Week: ISM Mfg and Services, ADP, Core PCE And More Key Events This Busy Week: ISM Mfg and Services, ADP, Core PCE And More As noted earlier, Asia kickstarted December in a weak mood with Bitcoin down another -6% this morning and Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures both notably lower. 10yr US Treasuries are +3bps and 10yr JGBs are +6.7bps as Ueda said at a speech this morning "At the Monetary Policy Meeting (MPM), the Bank will examine and discuss economic activity and prices at home and abroad as well as developments in financial and capital markets, including the point I just mentioned, based on various data and information, and will consider the pros and cons of raising the policy interest rate and make decisions as appropriate." DB's Japanese economist believes this strongly suggests an interest rate hike at the December meeting and has pushed forward his view of a hike from January to the meeting later this month, the Friday before Christmas. Market pricing has increased from a probability of just under 60% to 83%. This story brings shades of the 2022 meeting just before Xmas when the BoJ lifted its cap on 10yr JGBs from 0.25% to 0.5%. That saw the market spooked a little. The Yen has risen by +0.39% and the Nikkei is -2.04% lower this morning with 2yr yields +5bps, surpassing the 1% threshold and reaching their highest point since June 2008.  This coming week will allow forecasters to also fine-tune their Fed views ahead of that. There is plenty of data to get through, both shutdown-delayed and routine. Globally, we have European CPI tomorrow and PPI on Wednesday, following German and French CPI prints today. Various global PMIs are also out today, and we also have Cyber Monday, which follows what seems to have been a decent Black Friday weekend. As an example, Mastercard’s SpendingPulse index was up +4.1% on Friday, up from 3.4% last year. Newsflow continues to bubble up around peace negotiations for the war in Ukraine, so that’s one to watch as well. Focusing in on the US, the Federal Reserve is firmly in its pre-meeting communications blackout ahead of the 10 December FOMC decision, leaving economic releases to do the talking. Markets have already priced an 80% chance of a 25bp cut next week, and this week’s data will help shape that view as well as expectations for 2026. The US calendar begins today with the ISM Manufacturing Index, expected to hold near recent averages at 48.5, signalling continued softness in factory activity. Tomorrow brings unit motor vehicle sales, forecast at 15.8 million units, a modest improvement from October. Wednesday is the busiest day, featuring the ADP employment report, expected to show a gain of 50,000 jobs versus 42,000 previously. This report will take on added significance as it will be the most up-to-date labor market data available to Fed officials before they meet. Also due Wednesday are industrial production, likely to rise 0.1% after a slight decline last month, and the ISM Services Index, projected at 51.8, close to its two-year trend. On Thursday, factory orders should show a 0.5% increase, pointing to resilient capital spending. Friday rounds out the week with the delayed September personal income and consumption report, and within it, the more important core PCE. This is expected to hold at 0.23% month-on-month, keeping the annual rate near 2.9%, a tenth above what the Fed was tracking when they only had CPI to use. The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey is also anticipated to edge up to 54.0 from 51.0. While sentiment remains depressed—its 24-month average is comparable to Great Recession levels according to our economists—real GDP growth of 2.6% annualized over the past eight quarters and inflation-adjusted consumer spending growth of 2.8% underscore the economy’s resilience. Note that the combined September and October JOLTS report has been rescheduled for 9 December, while October and November payrolls and unemployment data will not arrive until 16 December, well after the FOMC meeting. image Across Europe, inflation will dominate the agenda. Country-level CPI prints for Germany and France set the tone today, followed by the Eurozone flash CPI for November tomorrow. Switzerland reports inflation figures on Wednesday, and Sweden follows on Thursday. These data points will be closely watched for confirmation that disinflation trends remain intact across the continent. In Asia, the focus turns to manufacturing and policy signals. Most of China’s PMI data came out yesterday and this morning, but we still have the private-sector services PMI on Wednesday. Geopolitical developments will also feature prominently. US and Ukrainian delegates met in Florida yesterday without any incremental headlines of note. The US’s main negotiator Witkoff is expected to travel to Moscow today and likely meet Putin tomorrow. EU defence ministers meet today on the same topic, followed by NATO foreign affairs ministers on Wednesday for further strategic discussions. French President Macron undertakes a state visit to China from Wednesday to Friday, underscoring diplomatic engagement in Asia. Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events Monday December 1 Data: US November ISM index, China manufacturing PMI, UK October net consumer credit, M4, Japan November monetary base, Italy November manufacturing PMI, budget balance, new car registrations, Canada November manufacturing PMI Central banks: BoJ’s Ueda speaks, ECB’s Nagel speaks, BoE's Dhingra speaks Other: EU foreign affairs council (defence) Tuesday December 2 Data: US November total vehicle sales, Japan November consumer confidence index, France October budget balance, Italy October unemployment rate, PPI, Eurozone November CPI, October unemployment rate Central banks: Fed's Powell and Bowman speak, ECB’s Dolenc speaks Earnings: Crowdstrike, Marvell Other: OECD economic outlook Wednesday December 3 Data: US November ISM services, ADP report, September industrial production, import price index, export price index, capacity utilisation, China services PMI, UK November official reserves changes, Italy November services PMI, Eurozone October PPI, Canada Q3 labor productivity, Australia Q3 GDP, Switzerland November CPI Central banks: ECB's Lagarde and Lane speak, BoE's Mann speaks Earnings: Salesforce, Snowflake, Inditex, Macy’s, Dollar Tree, Royal Bank of Canada Other: NATO foreign affairs ministers meeting Thursday December 4 Data: US initial jobless claims, UK November new car registrations, construction PMI, Japan October household spending, Germany November construction PMI, Eurozone October retail sales, Sweden November CPI Central banks: Fed's Bowman speaks, ECB's Kocher, Cipollone and Lane speak, BoE's Mann speaks, BoE’s DMP survey Earnings: Kroger, Dollar General, HPE Friday December 5 Data: US September PCE, personal income, personal spending, December University of Michigan survey, October consumer credit, Japan October leading index, coincident index, Germany October factory orders, France October trade balance, current account balance, industrial production, Italy October retail sales, Canada November labour force survey Central banks: ECB's Lane speaks Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the ISM manufacturing and services indexes on Monday and Wednesday and core PCE inflation and the University of Michigan report on Friday. There are no speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, reflecting the FOMC’s blackout period. Monday, December 1  09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, November final (consensus 51.9, last 51.9) 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, November (GS 49.0, consensus 49.0, last 48.7): We estimate that the ISM manufacturing index rebounded 0.3pt to 49.0 in November, reflecting slight improvement in our manufacturing survey tracker (+0.1pt to 51.6). Tuesday, December 2  05:00 PM Lightweight motor vehicle sales, November (GS 15.4mn, consensus 15.5mn, last 15.3mn) Wednesday, December 3  08:15 AM ADP employment change, November (GS -20k, consensus +10k, last +42k) 08:30 AM Import price index, September (consensus +0.1%, last +0.3%) 09:15 AM Industrial production, September (GS flat, consensus +0.1%, last -0.1%): Manufacturing production, September (GS flat, consensus +0.1%, last +0.1%); Capacity utilization, September (GS 75.8%, consensus 77.3%, last 75.8%): We estimate that industrial production was unchanged in September, as declines in auto manufacturing and natural gas production were offset by increases in non-auto manufacturing and electricity, oil and gas production. We estimate capacity utilization was unchanged at 75.8%, following the recent downward adjustment implied by the annual revision to the industrial production index.  09:45 AM S&P Global US services PMI, November final (consensus 55.0, last 55.0) 10:00 AM ISM services index, November (GS 52.5, consensus 52.0, last 52.4): We estimate that the ISM services index increased 0.1pt to 52.5 in November, reflecting sequential improvement in our non-manufacturing survey tracker (+0.6pt to 53.1). Thursday, December 4  08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended November 29 (GS 215k, consensus 222k, last 216k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended November 22 (consensus 1,956k, last 1,960k) Friday, December 5  10:00 AM Personal income, September (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.4%); Personal spending, September (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.6%); Core PCE price index, September (GS +0.22%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%); Core PCE price index (YoY), September (GS +2.85%, consensus +2.8%, last +2.9%); PCE price index, September (GS +0.29%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%); PCE price index (YoY), September (GS +2.81%, consensus +2.8%, last +2.7%): We estimate that personal income and personal spending increased by 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively, in September. We estimate that the core PCE price index rose 0.22% in September, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +2.85%. Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index increased 0.29% in September, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +2.81%. We estimate that market-based core PCE rose 0.23% in September. 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, December preliminary (GS 52.5, consensus 52.0, last 51.0): University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, December preliminary (GS 3.3%, last 3.4%) Source: DB, Goldman Mon, 12/01/2025 - 09:40
Witkoff Heads To Moscow With Revised Ukraine Peace Plan After Tense Miami Meeting Focused On Borders Witkoff Heads To Moscow With Revised Ukraine Peace Plan After Tense Miami Meeting Focused On Borders Both sides kept their comments somewhat vague after the US and Ukrainian delegations met in Miami on Sunday to discuss a potential outline for a peace deal to end the war with Russia. One of the Ukrainian delegates called it "intense but not negative." Axios wrote, "After an hour in a wider format, the meeting narrowed to three officials from each side — with the line of territorial control virtually the only issue discussed, according to the two Ukrainian officials." The American side which was led Secretary of State Marco Rubio cited simply that there’s "more work to be done," including more direct engagement with Russia, also as Steve Witkoff is set to travel to Moscow this week to meet with President Vladimir Putin. Jared Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-law, also attended the talks, despite not actually having an official position in the Trump administration. Axios reports some of the details gleaned thus far https://www.axios.com/2025/12/01/ukraine-us-meeting-russia-border-peace-deal : Negotiations between the U.S. and Ukraine on Sunday focused on where the de facto border with Russia would be drawn under a peace deal, two Ukrainian officials tell Axios. They described the five-hour meeting as "difficult" and "intense," but productive. image Rubio in the immediate aftermath of the meeting, "We had another very productive session, building off Geneva, building off the events of this week. As I told you earlier this morning, our goal here is to end the war, but it's more than just to end the war. We don't just want to end the war. We also want to help Ukraine be safe forever, so never again will they face another invasion." This presumably is a reference to security guarantees, which were outlined in the Trump-proposed plan and likened to Article 5-like protections, something which Moscow is likely to reject if it does actually invite the possibility of future NATO military intervention.  Rubio is still only emphasizing laying the "groundwork" at this late stage. "And so this is comprehensive, what we're working on here today. It's not just about the terms that end fighting. It's about also the terms that set up Ukraine for long-term prosperity. I thought we started laying the groundwork for that, most certainly in Geneva," he described. As for the degree to which the Zelensky government is actually on board, Rubio acknowledged, "I think there is a shared vision here that this is not just about ending the war, which is very important. It is about securing Ukraine's future, a future that we hope will be more prosperous than it's ever been." Amid the typical vagueness present in such post-meeting comments, Rubio did note that progress was made. "I think additional progress was made, and we continue to be realistic about how difficult this is, but optimistic, particularly given the fact that as we've made progress," he said. But a key question remains the degree to which the Ukrainians finally expressed willingness to make territorial concessions in the Donbass and Crimea. The Ukrainian delegation was led by Rustem Umerov, the secretary of the Ukrainian National Security Council, after Andriy Yermak, who was until Friday Zelensky's top aide and chief negotiator, resigned - or rather was pressured out -following a police raid on his home by anti-corruption investigators. He has since dramatically announce that he has gone to the front lines. Some say he is hiding from investigators, which can't reach him in a military zone. Umerov began his post-meeting remarks, "Once again, we are grateful to American people, American leadership and great team with State Secretary Rubio, Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner for their tremendous work with us. Our objective is prosperous, strong Ukraine. We were discussing about the future of Ukraine." He continued, without tipping his cards, "We worked. We already had a successful meeting in Geneva, and today, we continue this success. So at the moment, this meeting was productive and successful." So territorial concessions and security guarantees remain the central sticking points, with many analysts saying now that Umerov is running point, and with Yermak pushed aside, President Trump's vision for bringing an end to the war could be more easily accomplished. At this moment, US officials say Witkoff is expected to submit updated documents in his upcoming meeting with President Putin that incorporate the latest talks and revisions that were made with Kiev and European leaders. 🇺🇸🇺🇦 Looks like the meeting between the US and the Ukraine didn't go too well. According to sources, the US wants Ukraine to hold elections as soon as possible and enforces it has to give up territories. Witkoff will now be heading to Moscow to meet President Putin. — Spetsnaℤ 007 🇷🇺 (@Alex_Oloyede2) Still, the Ukrainian side didn't look happy based on the few photographs of the meeting's start which emerged. The Trump administration is definitely in the driver's seat, and Europe is not even at the table. This is likely become they know the clock is ticking on the battlefield, where as Moon of Alabama has noted, "The  : As the army breaks down and its soldiers   (in Russian) other cities, like Huleipole and Siversk, will soon fall too. There is no way for Ukraine to win the war. The longer the war takes the more will be lost for Ukraine. The utter delusion behind the rejection of Trump’s 28 point plan was https://x.com/MyLordBebo/status/1993719558083908086/history  by the European High Representative for Foreign Affairs Katja Kallas: "We still need to get from a situation where Russia pretends to negotiate to a situation where they need to negotiate." Moon of Alabama quips rhetorically: "Sure. And how are going to get there? After 19 rounds of EU sanction on Russia the 20th package will certainly take care of it?" Below are more of the latest Monday morning headlines and developments via Newsquawk... * * * Russia's Kremlin said that Russian President Putin is due to meet US envoy Witkoff on Tuesday. On the Russia-Ukraine peace development, the Kremlin adds that they are not going to engage in megaphone diplomacy. Ukrainian President Zelensky said a delegation headed by the security council chief travelled to the US for talks, while it was also reported that Zelensky is to visit French President Macron in Paris on Monday. US and Ukraine negotiations on Sunday focused on where the de facto border with Russia would be drawn under a peace deal, while the five-hour meeting was said to be difficult and intense, but productive, according to two Ukrainian officials cited by Axios. US Secretary of State Rubio said the meeting with Ukrainians was very productive but noted there is more work to be done, while he added that they have been in touch to varying degrees with the Russian side. Ukraine’s First Deputy Foreign Minister said there was a good start to US peace talks with a warm atmosphere conducive to a potential progressive outcome. Ukraine’s military hit Russia’s Afipsky oil refinery, while it was also reported that Ukrainian sea drones struck two Gambia-flagged tankers off the Turkish coast on Friday, which were said to be part of a Russian shadow fleet used to bypass Western sanctions. Russian forces carried out a massive strike on Ukrainian military-industrial and energy facilities. Russia’s Foreign Minister said following a Ukrainian drone attack on the CPC Black Sea terminal, that the civilian energy infrastructure that was attacked plays an important role in ensuring global energy security and has never been subject to any restrictions or limitations, while they strongly condemned the ‘terrorist attacks’ on CPC and oil tankers. NATO is considering being “more aggressive” in responding to Russia’s cyber-attacks, sabotage and airspace violations, according to its most senior military officer, Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, cited by FT. NATO is reportedly preparing for the scenario of confronting Russia with limited US support, according to a report by Bloomberg citing a wargame in Transylvania that showed European soldiers defending the continent largely without US support as President Trump reduces US deployments in Europe. Little public optimism for a quick peace by close of this year: Mon, 12/01/2025 - 09:20
Watch: Unrepentant Trump Unloads On Fake News Reporters Watch: Unrepentant Trump Unloads On Fake News Reporters https://modernity.news/2025/12/01/watch-unrepentant-trump-unloads-on-fake-news-reporters/ A gaggle of fake news reporters gathered around President Tump aboard Airforce One Sunday as he traveled back to Washington D.C. after the Thanksgiving weekend, and he let them all know exactly what he thought of them. image Trump dropped several truth bombs as the panicked reporters attempted gotcha questions regarding his https://modernity.news/2025/11/30/trumps-asylum-avalanche-2-million-claims-already-halted-in-wake-of-afghan-attack/ . When asked how long he intends to pause migration from countries including Afghanistan and Somalia, Trump shot back, “A long time. We don’t want those people, we have enough problems…You know why we don’t want them? Because many of them are no good and they should NOT be in our country.” ? PRESIDENT TRUMP ON 3RD WORLD MIGRANTS: "We have ENOUGH problems!" "You know why we don't want them? Because many of them are NO GOOD and they should NOT be in our country." TRUTH ? — Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) Trump highlighted people from “Countries like Somalia, that have virtually no government, no military — all they do is go around killing each other, then they come into our country and tell us how to run our country. We don’t want them.” Referring to Democrat Rep. Ilhan Omar, Trump blasted “She supposedly came into our country by marrying her brother. Well, if that’s true, she shouldn’t be a congresswoman, and we should throw her the HELL out of the country!” ? BREAKING: President Trump just showed he is DONE with the Somalian BS ?? "Countries like Somalia, that have virtually no government, no military — all they do is go around killing each other, then they come into our country and tell us how to run our country. WE DON'T WANT… — Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) Trump clarified that he will strip naturalisation from those who break the oath to America. “If we have criminals that came into our country, and they were naturalized maybe through Biden or somebody that didn’t know what they were doing, if I have the power to do it… I would denaturalise, absolutely!” he stated. When asked “What do you mean [by] ‘remigration?'” the President responded, “It means – get people OUT that are in our country. Get ’em out of here! I want to get them out! We got a lot of people who shouldn’t be here.” ? MASSIVE: President Trump stuns reporters by confirming REMIGRATION is about to get underway "If we have criminals that came into our country, and they were naturalized maybe through Biden or somebody that didn't know what they were doing, if I have the power to do it… I… — Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) When the gaggle attempted to get Trump to turn on Secretary of War Pete Hegseth over the narco boat strikes, he was having none of it. ? BREAKING: The Fake News just FAILED to get President Trump to turn on SecWar Pete Hegseth "I have GREAT confidence [in Pete]." They want to put Hegseth on trial for "war crimes." NEVER gonna happen! Hegseth is protecting the homeland ?? — Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) He also stated that he has a replacement in mind for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, but was not going to tell the fake news. ? BREAKING: President Trump just decided on JEROME POWELL'S replacement as Federal Reserve Chair "I know who I'm gonna pick!" REPORTER: "Kevin Hassett?!" TRUMP: "?I'm not telling you. We'll be announcing it!" Too Late is on his way out, FINALLY. We need more interest rate… — Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) When asked if he stands by calling Tim Walz “retarded,” in his Thanksgiving message,Trump responded, “Yeah! I think there’s something wrong with him. Absolutely. Sure. You have a problem with it?” “Anybody that would do what he did – allow those [Somalians] into his state, and pay billions out to Somalia…it’s not even a country, it doesn’t function like a country! There’s something wrong with Walz!” Trump added. ? JUST IN – REPORTER: "Do you stand by calling Tim Walz 'retarded?'" PRESIDENT TRUMP: "Yeah! I think there's something wrong with him. Absolutely. Sure. You have a problem with it?" ? "Anybody that would do what he did – allow those [Somalians] into his state, and pay… — Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) Trump ended the exchange by bodying the two lead Karens at the head of the gaggle, who were pestering him for details of an MRI he recently had. “It wasn’t on the brain, ’cause I took a cognitive test and aced it! Which you would be incapable of doing,” he told one of the women before turning to the other and bellowing “YOU TOO!” ?LMFAO! President Trump concluded his press avail aboard Air Force One by BODYING every reporter in the room! REPORTERS: *Pressing him on his MRI* TRUMP: "It wasn't on the brain, 'cause I took a cognitive test and ACED it! Which YOU would be incapable of doing. YOU TOO!" ?? — Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) You can clearly see that Trump absolutely loves intellectually demolishing these fake media wage monkeys. Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via  . Mon, 12/01/2025 - 09:00
Crypto Crushed By Triple-Whammy Overnight Crypto Crushed By Triple-Whammy Overnight After an ugly November (the worst since 2018), December is continuing that trend with a big drop overnight that shook what had appeared to be a stabilizing market. Hawkish BoJ The overnight plunge appeared to be triggered by Japanese government bond (JGB) futures tumbling on expectations that the Bank of Japan would raise borrowing costs at its December meeting. Japan’s 2-year government bond yield briefly touched 1.01 percent, the highest since 2008, as traders bet the Bank of Japan’s long era of near-zero rates is ending.  Some 90 minutes later, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said in a speech that his board might increase interest rates soon. Traders raised the odds of a BOJ rate hike in December to about 80% after Ueda told business leaders that the central bank “will consider the pros and cons of raising the policy interest rate and make decisions as appropriate.” Any hike would be an adjustment in the degree of easing, with the real interest rate still at a very low level, he said. As Bloomberg reports, the reaction underscored how crypto investors must now reckon with macro forces far beyond the Fed which is widely expected to ease monetary policy at next week’s meeting. “In the early days, Bitcoin mostly moved to whatever the Fed was signaling, rate cuts, hikes, or balance sheet shifts,” said Rachael Lucas, an analyst at BTC Markets. “These days, Bitcoin reacts to the whole central-bank landscape, not just one player.” The reaction was swift and violent, tanking the largest cryptocurrency from around $92,000 to $84,000 before a small rebound back above $86,000. “It’s a risk off start to December,” said Sean McNulty, APAC derivatives trading lead at FalconX. “The biggest concern is the meagre inflows into Bitcoin exchange traded funds and absence of dip buyers. We expect the structural headwinds to continue this month. We are watching $80,000 on Bitcoin as the next key support level.”   image Ethereum also tanked, back below $3,000... image Strategy selling? Things worsened this morning as Bloomberg reports that concerns are rising that Strategy Inc. soon may be forced to sell some of its roughly $56 billion cryptocurrency haul if token prices continue to fall, leading its shares to wobble in pre-market trading. Strategy’s mNAV — a key valuation metric comparing the firm’s enterprise value to the value of its Bitcoin holdings — sat at about 1.2 on Monday, according to its website, spurring investor fears it may soon turn negative. “We can sell Bitcoin and we would sell Bitcoin if we needed to fund our dividend payments below 1x mNAV,” Phong Le, Strategy’s chief executive officer, said on a podcast on Friday, noting that it would only be carried out as a last resort. “There’s the mathematical side of me that says that would be absolutely the right thing to do, and there’s the emotional side of me, the market side of me, that says we don’t really want to be the company that’s selling Bitcoin,” Le added. “Generally speaking, for me, the mathematical side wins.” MSTR is trading down 5% in the pre-market image However, after a week of not adding to its Bitcoin hoard, Strategy Chairman Michael Saylor appeared to hint in a Sunday post on X that it might soon make further purchases. What if we start adding green dots? — Michael Saylor (@saylor) China notices 'speculation', issues re-ban Finally, we note that China’s central bank has flagged stablecoins as a risk and has promised to refresh its crackdown on crypto trading, which it has banned since 2021. The People’s Bank of China said on Saturday, after a meeting with 12 other agencies, that “virtual currency speculation has resurfaced” due to various factors, posing new challenges for risk control. “Virtual currencies do not have the same legal status as fiat currencies, lack legal tender status, and should not and cannot be used as currency in the market,” the bank said, according to a translation of its statement. “Virtual currency-related business activities constitute illegal financial activities.” China’s central bank banned crypto trading and mining in 2021, citing a need to curb crime and claiming that crypto posed a risk to the financial system. So a triple-whammy for an already sensitive crypto market overnight - is this the weak hand flush needed for the Santa Claus rally to start? Mon, 12/01/2025 - 08:45