The Swamp Got Bigger, Better Paid & More Secretive Since 2020
The Swamp Got Bigger, Better Paid & More Secretive Since 2020
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If you were told a business increased their staff headcount by 5% over four years but its payroll rose 24% over that time, all the while withholding the names of 39% of their staff, would you invest in that company?
Unlikely. But that’s just what the United State government does, funded by taxpayer dollars and operating as if accountable to no one.
Open the Books analyzed the FY 2024 payroll records of executive agencies and found that 2.9 million federal employees were paid $270 billion, compared to 2.8 million employees paid $217 billion in FY 2020. While the civilian employee ranks grew 5%, pay grew nearly 5 times as much, 24%.
The Office of Personnel Management provided the pay for over 1.5 million executive agency bureaucrats; Department of Defense provided pay for its 761,624 civilian employees; and United States Postal Service gave its 638,007 employees’ payroll, via Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests.
Not included are pay for judicial branch employees; the 535 members of Congress and their staff; the 1.3 million active-duty military members; the Office of the Vice President (which claims itself entirely exempt from FOIA); nor the staff of several intelligence agencies.
While payroll records don’t include benefits, adding an estimated 30% to the $270 billion payroll brings total costs to $351 billion.
That means the disclosed federal workforce costs the American taxpayer $673,000 per minute, $40.4 million per hour, and just under $1 billion per day.
Meanwhile, more than a million civilian names were redacted from payroll productions produced by Office of Personnel Management and Department of Defense.
The Trump administration has a historic opportunity to bring much-needed transparency to the administrative state. While federal employees don’t add as much to the debt as safety net programs, defense, and overall agency spending, they are an indicator of government growth.
A New Minimum Wage? $100,000 Earners
These employees are now being paid more than ever before.
The average pay exceeded $100,000 in 117 of 127 executive agencies and the White House.
In FY 2024, there were 31,452 federal employees who out-earned every governor of the 50 states. That includes the highest paid, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, who collects a $250,000 salary.
Even worse, there were 956 federal employees who outearned the president himself.
The vast majority — 939 people — are medical officers at the Veterans Health Administration, while another 15 doctors at the National Institutes of Health earning more than $400,000.
Two more people outearned the president: Micah Nix, an emergency room doctor with the Indian Health Service, part of Department of Health and Human Services and one other redacted employee working at Bureau of Prisons, part of Department of Justice.
The highest paid federal employee is cardiologist Gary H. Gibbons, Director of the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute at the National Institutes of Health. He earned $519,246 last year.
Lest one think these highly paid doctors are the only ones raking in big checks, the payroll is top-heavy across the board.
Of the 2.1 million non-DOD employees in FY 2024, 793,537 people made $100,000 or more, a 49% increase from 532,784 people in FY 2020.
There were 68,445 employees who earned $200,000 or more – an 82% increase from 37,631 in FY 2020.
Those making $300,000 or more numbered at 14,144 – an 84% increase from 7,692 in FY 2020.
At least 20 federal agencies have an average pay above $150,000. Topping the list is Commodity Futures Trading Commission, where the 721 staffers make an average of $236,006.
The obscure Public Buildings Reform Board and Arctic Research Commission each pay their staff an average of $192,000, while the 1,851 employees of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau earn an average pay of $187,120.
Boards for Civil Rights Cold Case Review, Privacy and Civil Liberties Oversight, and Surface Transportation have average pay between $166,091 and $181,903.
The Swamp Gets Larger
In the largest federal agencies, there’s little correlation between employee headcounts and increased pay.
In most cases, even a decrease in headcount still led to an increase in total pay for that agency.
For instance, the Post Office lost 6% of its staff between FY 2020 and FY 2024, yet payroll increased 11% during that time.
At Department of Justice, headcount decreased less than 1% but its payroll nonetheless increased 16%.
Social Security Administration and Department of Commerce both lost staff in those years, 4% and 8%, respectively, but their payrolls still increased 11% and 13%.
At the agencies where headcount increased, payroll soared past them. Department of Homeland Security increased its staff by 6% but its payroll went up 26%. Department of Transportation saw its staff grow by 3% but its payroll by 19%.
Those that grew headcount significantly saw their payroll skyrocket, including a 19% staff increase at both Department of Health and Human Services and Department of State, with 39% and 35% increased payrolls, respectively.
A 20% increase in Department of Energy headcount led to a 37% increase in paychecks.
Top 20 Departments and Agencies by Employee Count
FY 2024 Compared to FY 2020
“Name Withheld” for 39% of Staff
The secrecy of the federal bureaucracy has worsened.
It’s bad enough that Department of Defense redacted all 761,624 civilian employee names from their payroll, and that records production excludes pay for 1.3 million active-duty military members.
When Open the Books requested the FY 2022 federal payroll, the Biden administration had redacted the names of 350,860 rank-and-file employees.
In the most recent FY 2024 production a record-breaking 383,000 names were redacted in 58 federal agencies. Back in FY 2016, a mere 
. What gives?
Many of those include investigative and law enforcement roles in agencies including Departments of Homeland Security, Justice, Treasury and Veterans’ Affairs — which account for 97% of the redactions.
But still, dozens of additional agencies redacted names, from two each at U.S. Agency for Global Media, Office of National Drug Control Policy and Armed Forces Retirement Home, to over 1,000 each in Departments of Labor, Agriculture, Transportation and Health and Human Services. At Department of Interior, 2,331 identities were redacted.
The payroll report also contains no information about staff in the Office of the Vice President.
That’s because the Office of the Vice President claims not to be subject to FOIA and is not listed on the
.
Open the Books has tried 
in the past to obtain the salaries through open records requests, and has accessed limited payroll information in the semi-annual Report of the Secretary of the Senate.
In the .pdf
covering Oct. 1, 2024, through March 31, 2025, we can see that Kamala Harris ended her stay in the office with 43 staffers, while J.D. Vance began his vice presidential term with 23 staffers.
As the federal headcount and payroll grow, there are far too many redactions and blind spots that DOGE should have identified and fixed. We can’t have accountability for the federal workforce without better transparency.
Fri, 11/14/2025 - 19:15
The Swamp Got Bigger, Better Paid & More Secretive Since 2020
If you were told a business increased their staff headcount by 5% over four years but its payroll rose 24% over that time, all the while withholdin...
Unlikely. But that’s just what the United State government does, funded by taxpayer dollars and operating as if accountable to no one.
Open the Books analyzed the FY 2024 payroll records of executive agencies and found that 2.9 million federal employees were paid $270 billion, compared to 2.8 million employees paid $217 billion in FY 2020. While the civilian employee ranks grew 5%, pay grew nearly 5 times as much, 24%.
The Office of Personnel Management provided the pay for over 1.5 million executive agency bureaucrats; Department of Defense provided pay for its 761,624 civilian employees; and United States Postal Service gave its 638,007 employees’ payroll, via Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests.
Not included are pay for judicial branch employees; the 535 members of Congress and their staff; the 1.3 million active-duty military members; the Office of the Vice President (which claims itself entirely exempt from FOIA); nor the staff of several intelligence agencies.
While payroll records don’t include benefits, adding an estimated 30% to the $270 billion payroll brings total costs to $351 billion.
That means the disclosed federal workforce costs the American taxpayer $673,000 per minute, $40.4 million per hour, and just under $1 billion per day.
Meanwhile, more than a million civilian names were redacted from payroll productions produced by Office of Personnel Management and Department of Defense.
The Trump administration has a historic opportunity to bring much-needed transparency to the administrative state. While federal employees don’t add as much to the debt as safety net programs, defense, and overall agency spending, they are an indicator of government growth.
A New Minimum Wage? $100,000 Earners
These employees are now being paid more than ever before.
The average pay exceeded $100,000 in 117 of 127 executive agencies and the White House.
In FY 2024, there were 31,452 federal employees who out-earned every governor of the 50 states. That includes the highest paid, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, who collects a $250,000 salary.
Even worse, there were 956 federal employees who outearned the president himself.
The vast majority — 939 people — are medical officers at the Veterans Health Administration, while another 15 doctors at the National Institutes of Health earning more than $400,000.
Two more people outearned the president: Micah Nix, an emergency room doctor with the Indian Health Service, part of Department of Health and Human Services and one other redacted employee working at Bureau of Prisons, part of Department of Justice.
The highest paid federal employee is cardiologist Gary H. Gibbons, Director of the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute at the National Institutes of Health. He earned $519,246 last year.
Lest one think these highly paid doctors are the only ones raking in big checks, the payroll is top-heavy across the board.
Of the 2.1 million non-DOD employees in FY 2024, 793,537 people made $100,000 or more, a 49% increase from 532,784 people in FY 2020.
There were 68,445 employees who earned $200,000 or more – an 82% increase from 37,631 in FY 2020.
Those making $300,000 or more numbered at 14,144 – an 84% increase from 7,692 in FY 2020.
At least 20 federal agencies have an average pay above $150,000. Topping the list is Commodity Futures Trading Commission, where the 721 staffers make an average of $236,006.
The obscure Public Buildings Reform Board and Arctic Research Commission each pay their staff an average of $192,000, while the 1,851 employees of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau earn an average pay of $187,120.
Boards for Civil Rights Cold Case Review, Privacy and Civil Liberties Oversight, and Surface Transportation have average pay between $166,091 and $181,903.
The Swamp Gets Larger
In the largest federal agencies, there’s little correlation between employee headcounts and increased pay.
In most cases, even a decrease in headcount still led to an increase in total pay for that agency.
For instance, the Post Office lost 6% of its staff between FY 2020 and FY 2024, yet payroll increased 11% during that time.
At Department of Justice, headcount decreased less than 1% but its payroll nonetheless increased 16%.
Social Security Administration and Department of Commerce both lost staff in those years, 4% and 8%, respectively, but their payrolls still increased 11% and 13%.
At the agencies where headcount increased, payroll soared past them. Department of Homeland Security increased its staff by 6% but its payroll went up 26%. Department of Transportation saw its staff grow by 3% but its payroll by 19%.
Those that grew headcount significantly saw their payroll skyrocket, including a 19% staff increase at both Department of Health and Human Services and Department of State, with 39% and 35% increased payrolls, respectively.
A 20% increase in Department of Energy headcount led to a 37% increase in paychecks.
Top 20 Departments and Agencies by Employee Count
FY 2024 Compared to FY 2020
“Name Withheld” for 39% of Staff
The secrecy of the federal bureaucracy has worsened.
It’s bad enough that Department of Defense redacted all 761,624 civilian employee names from their payroll, and that records production excludes pay for 1.3 million active-duty military members.
When Open the Books requested the FY 2022 federal payroll, the Biden administration had redacted the names of 350,860 rank-and-file employees.
In the most recent FY 2024 production a record-breaking 383,000 names were redacted in 58 federal agencies. Back in FY 2016, a mere Newsweek
Where's Waldo at Club Fed?
Taking stock of the administrative state is difficult.
FOIA.gov - Freedom of Information Act: Identify an agency to request from
VP Kamala Harris Had 92-Percent Staff Turnover During Her First Three Years
Chaos reigns on the vice president’s staff. And Harris tried to hide it by claiming that her office is not subject to the Freedom of Information ...
Tyler Durden | Zero Hedge
Zero Hedge
The Swamp Got Bigger, Better Paid & More Secretive Since 2020 | ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
Buffett, 95, who will step down as CEO at year-end, has been finding ways to deploy some of Berkshire’s gargantuan cash pile, which rose to a record $382 billion at the end of the quarter. The Omaha, Nebraska-based conglomerate recently reached a deal to buy Occidental Petroleum Corp.’s petrochemical business for $9.7 billion and acquired a $1.6 billion stake in UnitedHealth Group Inc.
The full summary of his holdings is below.
The announcement of the proposed arms deal 
Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te delivers his address during National Day celebrations in front of the Presidential Office in Taipei on Oct. 10, 2025. Sung Pi-lung/The Epoch Times
‘Cornerstone of Peace’
The Pentagon said in a statement that the proposed sale will improve Taiwan’s “capability to meet current and future threats by maintaining the operational readiness of the recipient’s fleet of F-16, C-130,” and other aircraft.
“The deepening of the Taiwan-U.S. security partnership is an important cornerstone of peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region,” Taiwan’s presidential office spokesperson Karen Kuo said in a statement, noting the arms sale was the first announced by the current administration.
The statement thanked Washington for continuing its policy of regularized arms sales to Taiwan and supporting the island in enhancing its defense capabilities.
The deal, expected to take effect within a month, will help maintain the air force’s fighter readiness and bolster air defenses, strengthen resilience, and enhance the nation’s ability to respond to China’s “gray-zone” incursions, Taiwan’s defense ministry said.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has not ruled out the use of force to take control of the island.
Taiwan’s government strongly refutes Beijing’s sovereignty claims.
A U.S.-made F-16V fighter jet taxis on the runway at an air force base during Taiwan's annual Han Kuang military drills in Hualien on July 23, 2024. Sam Yeh / AFP via Getty Images
Trump said in August that Xi told him he would not invade Taiwan while the Republican leader remains in office.
He made the comments in an 
It cites a lengthy document by the department’s Office of Legal Counsel, which lays out the legal justification of the Trump administration for continuing military operations in the southern Caribbean with an eye on Venezuela.
Revelation of the classified memo comes less than 12 hours after US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth late in the day Thursday 
The Center for Disease Control's (CDC) National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) has written that "Fentanyl depresses central nervous system (CNS) and respiratory function. Exposure to fentanyl may be fatal." It has a potency at least 80 times that of morphine.
Going back several years, the single biggest sources of the world's fentanyl trade have been consistently identified as China and Mexico. At this point it's impossible to know, and hasn't been disclosed, whether any of the some 20 boats blown up by US military action off Latin America since September have been loaded with fentanyl, or in what quantities.
In a Nov. 12 
The message was not accompanied by any additional escalation or military action against Venezuela, other than the drone boat strikes of late which have become typical. Some 21 alleged drug boats have been blown out of the water off Latin America in operations stretching back to September.
"Led by Joint Task Force Southern Spear and SOUTHCOM, this mission defends our Homeland, removes narco-terrorists from our Hemisphere, and secures our Homeland from the drugs that are killing our people," the Pentagon chief described. He added "The Western Hemisphere is America’s neighborhood – and we will protect it."
Simultaneously in its own post on social media, SOUTHCOM announced that the US Marines were conducting artillery training onboard the USS Iwo Jima in the Caribbean in support of the commander-in-chief's "priorities to disrupt illicit drug trafficking and protect the homeland."
The USS Iwo Jima is the type of amphibious assault ship which could theoretically land on Venezuela's coast and deliver troops, though this is unlikely at this stage. Any Trump-ordered assault would likely stay at the level of aerial strikes on land targets.
Earlier, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Wednesday rejected criticism of US attacks on narco-vessels from G-7 allies. He emphasized that Europeans will not dictate how Washington chooses to defend US national security.
"I don’t think that the European Union gets to determine what international law is, and what they certainly don’t get to determine is how the United States defends its national security," he 
For those who can’t quite wrap their minds around this game, a color revolution is the surreptitious overthrow of an elected government by concealed parties. Neocons in the US State Department developed the practice of color revolution on many countries over the years. Mr. Obama added a layer of gnostic Marxists to the personnel mix at State, and these wannabe revolutionaries built a fantastic matrix of NGOs outside State to marshal the useful idiots with jobs and salaries. The NGOs, in turn, were connected to international moneybags, with strange agendas of their own such as the megalomanic climate change crusader Bill Gates and George Soros’s Open Society Foundation, which funds anarchist district attorneys, the defense of election fraud, mass illegal migration, internet censorship, and money-flows into Antifa, the Left’s street fighters.
The motives of these players might appear murky, but at this point they can be boiled down to:
1) staying out of jail, and
2) retaining control of their empires.
Hillary Clinton, for instance, surely wants to stay out of jail for her RussiaGate caper, and retain the ill-gotten lucre of the Clinton Foundation she lives off. At 95, George Soros himself is probably beyond caring about all this, but his son Alex, 38, carries on, and recently cemented his alliance with the Clinton Foundation by marrying the former Mrs. Anthony Wiener, Huma Abedin, Hillary Clinton’s long-time wing-gal.
The Democratic Party plays an increasingly curious part in this rolling coup as all its efforts look evermore insane and self-extinguishing — the bootless government shutdown being the latest exercise. The party can no longer meaningfully represent organized labor — since labor moved to faraway lands — so it attempted to replace that earnest bond with fronting for women and minorities.
This has resulted in two problems:
1) women taking over the actual machinery of the party has transformed mere politics into never-ending psychodrama and boosted the amplitude of political dirty-fighting to dangerous new levels; and
2) cultivating minority groups has led to an orgy of race-and-gender hustles that amount to gigantic racketeering operations (i.e., making money dishonestly).
All of that sound, fury, and roguery is now dedicated only to staving off the party’s collapse and thwarting Mr. Trump’s attempt to restore something like regular order in public affairs, which the Democratic Party calls “authoritarianism.” Regular order is something that healthy male psychology takes an interest in, since it entails defense of the culture, in this case, Western Civ and its heritage. That implies the uses of strength as opposed to the stratagems of weakness. It must acknowledge and rely on classic virtues such as fortitude, prudence, and a preference for what is — as opposed to wishes and fantasies.
Psychodrama dispenses with all that for the sake of emotional gratification, often mis-characterized as empathy or caring. It can transform easily into sadism — as you can see now with the calls for violence and murder against Trump-adjacent persons. Meanwhile, be aware that the cries for “saving our democracy” come from the people opposed to regular order in elections, that is, voter ID, voting on election day only, with results reported out at day’s end, paper ballots and no electronic counting machines, and no mail-in ballots (except for people out of the country on election day). All of these stipulations are observed in other nations of Western Civ, and beyond, even in lands where people go about half-clothed.
The current psychodrama, of course, is the latest installment of the Jeffrey Epstein scandal. The Democrats are flogging it with Wile E. Coyote zeal. I suspect it is an Acme booby trap for the ages and it is being carefully laid by Mr. Trump, the Roadrunner, to blow up un the Dems’ faces when all the documents are finally sorted out. Anyway, it has nothing to do with the real-world problems that the US faces, such as runaway financialization of the economy, a broken medical system, mass job layoffs, the collapse of education, surging mental illness, the drug plague, and the sinking middle-class.
We’re entering a new phase in the ongoing color revolution, the coup against America, and it’s liable to be the final phase in which all the mystery gets wrung out, the motives are revealed, and the players are correctly sorted and labeled according to their deeds.
No new psychodrama will avail to stop what’s coming.
* * *
Now live: JHK’s new novel, a comic romp set during the week of the tragic JFK Assassination, November 1963. Amusing excerpt from the book
Even after things got better for my family, I kept working because even as a teenage boy, I realized that money came in handy. As it turns out, girls appreciate a guy who can pay for dinner and a movie. And you can buy stuff like clothes.
During my time in the workforce, there were two rules that I thought were pretty much givens.
Rule #1
If your employer schedules you for a shift or whatever it is you work, you show up on time and do what you’re told to do.
Rule #2
If you don’t like Rule #1, find another job. If you can.
That, apparently, is not SOP in the 21st century.
I submit to you the staffers at the Democratic National Committee.
They are currently affronted, insulted, traumatized, made to feel unsafe, victimized, and suffering from acute cases of out-of-joint noses and ruffled feathers because the DNC bosses told them that, henceforth, they would have to show up, in person, at their jobs for the entire five-day work week.
As Col. Kurtz would say, “The horror. The horror.”
The Daily Caller 
For very obvious reasons.
However, the pendulum is now swinging the other way...
Trump has asked Bondi, DoJ, and FBI to investigate "investigate Jeffrey Epstein's involvement and relationship with Bill Clinton, Larry Summers, Reid Hoffman, J.P. Morgan, Chase, and many other people and institutions, to determine what was going on with them, and him."
"Fatty at LinkedIn, Reid Hoffman"
"This is another Russia, Russia, Russia Scam, with all arrows pointing to the Democrats," the president noted.
It appears the Democratic Party's social media desk, likely staffed by inexperienced Gen-Z operatives, didn't bother to verify anything. However, competence was never the point; the objective was to plant a headline and let it do maximum damage before anyone could check the facts. That's the nature of information warfare. And now it looks like the Trump team is preparing to hit back.
The consumer, long the backbone of the post-pandemic recovery, shows signs of fatigue. Excess savings have dwindled, credit card usage is climbing, and real wage gains have slowed. These are not signals of strength, but of late-cycle fragility.
Yet, despite these risks, the economy has not broken. The recession expected by most economists, strategists, and market commentators has yet to arrive. The S&P 500 continues to grind higher. Volatility remains muted. Consumer spending, while uneven, has not collapsed. And corporate earnings, though pressured in some sectors, have not cratered.
This divergence between bearish data and market behavior raises an important question: could the consensus be wrong? More specifically, what if the economy is not headed for contraction, but toward a renewed phase of expansion? That’s the contrarian view, an economic reacceleration, and it’s worth considering, not because it is guaranteed, but because few are prepared for it. In markets, surprises matter more than forecasts. If the surprise is upside growth, the implications for asset prices, portfolio strategy, and risk management could be substantial.
Let’s dig into it.
The Case for Economic Reacceleration
While consensus remains cautious, there is a case, however tenuous, for economic reacceleration. This isn’t about ignoring risks. It’s about acknowledging that conditions aligning could drive a shift from stagnation to renewed growth.
First, financial conditions have eased substantially since late last year. Despite the Fed maintaining higher policy rates, markets have pushed bond yields lower and credit spreads tighter. Equities have rallied, creating a wealth effect that supports consumption, at least within the top 10% of the population that owns 87% of the equity market. Furthermore, the top 40% of income earners currently account for 60% of total consumption.
Adding to that backdrop, the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index has turned increasingly accommodative, suggesting that monetary policy’s grip on the economy is slipping. This eases the burden on consumers and businesses, setting the stage for renewed activity.
Third, fiscal support remains more robust than many acknowledge. Federal spending continues at a high level, with infrastructure outlays and industrial policy subsidies supporting investment in energy, manufacturing, and technology. These initiatives feed directly into corporate capital expenditures. The AI investment boom is a clear example of spending accelerating not just in “big tech,” but across the industrial supply chain. UBS has flagged this emerging capex cycle as a significant tailwind for mid-cycle expansion, which could offset a slowdown in consumer spending.
Fourth, labor market dynamics are more stable than the headlines suggest. While job openings have declined, layoffs remain low. Real disposable income has started to recover, supported by moderating inflation. This income stability allows consumers to maintain spending despite rising debt levels. Goldman Sachs has emphasized that consumption trends, particularly in services, remain strong enough to support growth in the near term. In the economically weighted ISM surveys, services (70% of the economy) are keeping the composite index in expansion territory.
Finally, there is the issue of data distortion. In recent months, significant revisions have been made to payrolls and GDP. Preliminary reports painted a picture of sharp deceleration, only for final data to show much more resilience. Goldman has warned that headline data may be underestimating actual activity. If that’s true, the economy may not need to rebound; it may already be stronger than it appears. We also see improvement in the Economic Composite Index, which comprises more than 100 data points, including manufacturing, services, leading indicators, and other economic factors.
Combined, these factors do not guarantee a reacceleration but offer a plausible case. They suggest the economy may be more resilient, supported, and responsive to easing conditions than the bearish narrative implies.
Supporting the Bull Market: Earnings and Valuation
If reacceleration gains traction, it becomes a fundamental driver of earnings growth. That’s the critical link. The equity rally has run ahead of fundamentals in some sectors. Valuations, particularly in technology and discretionary names, are stretched. Without earnings growth, they cannot be sustained. However, an economic reacceleration changes that dynamic. A pickup in nominal GDP would lift revenues. Stabilizing costs and improving operating leverage could support margins. As top-line growth returns, analysts would raise forward earnings estimates.
As UBS notes, they expect stronger earnings growth going into 2026, supported by stronger economic growth.
While there is certainly risk that “hopes” are disappointed, as investors, we must consider the possibility that an economic reacceleration comes to fruition. Such could leave overly defensive investors underexposed to equities, creating significant opportunity costs. Currently, many investors remain positioned for stagnation or slow deterioration. While that positioning aligns with the data, the yield curve, and historical patterns, the markets rarely reward consensus thinking. If reacceleration unfolds, it will catch many investors with an underweighted risk exposure.
Positioning for this shift does not require full conviction. But it does require readiness. Watch leading indicators for signs of stabilization. Monitor earnings revisions and forward guidance. Track credit spreads and yield curve behavior. These are the tells.
The opportunity lies in being early but not reckless. If growth is turning, earnings will follow, and earnings ultimately sustain bull markets.
Just something to consider.