Donald Trump is Joe Biden now POTUS's job approval on prices is where Biden's was during peak inflation in 2022-23. Voters say 2:1 that Trump has made the economy worse. Oh, and consumer sentiment among independents hit a new all-time low in November, www.gelliottmorris.com/p/donald-tru... Donald Trump is Joe Biden now
Not going to sugar coat it, I think it's a pretty idiotic thing to do to compare Zohran Mamdani's margin in NYC , in 3-person race off the usual left-right spectrum, to Kamala Harris's margin in 2024. So stupid as to make you question the intentions of the author www.thirdway.org/memo/ten-rea... https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:sbdnltkjqzeb5qshxmi7wu2i&cid=bafkreigvf7cuve3wz2ekqjnguxekweo6vaagifyui3d355pdoarvsrxa2q
Dem gains in this week's elections erased the inroads Trump made with non-white, young, and low-income voters in 2024. In fact, the R-to-D shift from 24 to 25 is double Trump's gains from 20-24. Claims of a GOP political realignment have been highly exaggerated www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trumps-win... Trump's winning 2024 coalition...
If it's true that RealClearPolitics removed their polling average of the VA Attorney General race because it was wrong, that should really be the nail in the coffin for them. It's GOP polling propaganda that hasn't been rigorous or transparent in a long time (www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-pollin...) https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:sbdnltkjqzeb5qshxmi7wu2i&cid=bafkreiejtd763rwltd4wlveupfon2ti6rw7rkoschhpk2rxctv24pmbq6i https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:sbdnltkjqzeb5qshxmi7wu2i&cid=bafkreic6iipk4biqlvlvvqtzposz4n5txyvtq5dm7xqnjh6dffo7y4gcki
remember all those hot takes during the primary about how Mamdani was the candidate for rich white liberals? a "champagne socialist" ? yeah, about that https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:sbdnltkjqzeb5qshxmi7wu2i&cid=bafkreidm5o7kqjjyq43caq22skl65kdsm2gizx5mkiioqeb5wtmfhsvrii
the "public as a thermostat" model is not just that there's a backlash to the party in power when they move policy too far from the median voterβ€”it's also that the backlash is proportional to the amount policy is moved. last night's election results fit in that model, and suggest a swing in 2026 too