Good morning NOSTR and Primal, a great day to send zaps and write notes.
Why is Bitcoin falling amidst global chaos?
It’s truly ironic and frustrating to see "digital gold" drop right when the world stage looks like a war movie script. With the capture of Nicolás Maduro in early January, the extreme tension between the U.S. and Denmark over Greenland, and the total internet blackout in Iran, the market is operating under unprecedented stress at the start of 2026.
There are several technical and psychological reasons why BTC is currently correcting (currently around R$ 463,911, coming down from peaks above R$ 515,000 in the middle of the month):
1. "Risk-Off" vs. Safe Haven
While Bitcoin is seen by many as a refuge, in moments of imminent war panic (especially involving NATO allies, as in the Greenland case), large institutions tend to seek immediate liquidity. This means selling volatile assets to hold U.S. Dollars (USD). The market enters "risk-off" mode: investors prefer cash in hand until they understand if there will be armed conflict or a trade war.
2. Tensions with the European Union
Trump's threat to impose 25% tariffs on EU products if Greenland is not ceded has sparked fears of a global recession. If the global economy slows down due to protectionism, the appetite for tech and crypto investments drops drastically in the short term.
3. The "Sell the Fact" Factor (Maduro)
The operation in Caracas on January 3rd brought a spike of euphoria and uncertainty that drove prices up. After the confirmation of the capture and the start of the trial in New York, many investors "took profit." It’s a classic market move: buy the rumor and the tension, sell when the new reality (however chaotic) sets in.
4. Iran Blackout and Hashrate
The protests in Iran have led to an internet blockade that has lasted 18 days. Although Iran is not the world’s largest mining hub, any instability in network infrastructure and the exit of regional miners affects market sentiment, creating a perception of momentary "fragility."
The bottom line: Bitcoin usually shines after the initial shock passes and fiat currencies start being printed to fund these conflicts. In the "eye of the storm," cash liquidity still tends to trump the store of value thesis.
