How scarce will #BTC be for the individual? I’d like to explore how little of this digital commodity will actually be available to the average individual around the globe.
is a great starting point for this conversation. This resource conceptualizes how scarce bitcoin truly is. It is very simple in its breakdown.
Total circulating supply 19.4M BTC / Total population 7.9B people = roughly 240k sats per person. This is a great conversation for orange pilling. However to truly figure out how scarce this commodity is for the average individual, we will need to tighten the screws a little bit more. We will need to estimate a couple bits of information:
1. What is the true amount of the LIQUID supply of #BTC
2. We will need to estimate the breakdown by percentage of accumulation by nation states, corporations to ultimately figure out what is left over for individuals.
There are a few opinions on how much of the total circulating supply is liquid.
One guesstimate on the conservative side of the scale, measures how many bitcoins haven’t moved in 12 months. If 3/4 of bitcoin hasn’t moved in the past 12 months, that means that the remaining 4.85M could potentially be liquid in this scenario.
Bitcoin Magazine
The HODL Model: Bitcoin Illiquid Supply Is Outpacing Issuance
The HODL model hypothesizes that bitcoin has crossed an inflection point, with the asset's illiquid supply outpacing the rate of new supply is...
We will use simple math like bitcoinsperperson.com for the sake of concept: 4.85M BTC / 7.9B individuals =61k sats per individual. Starting to feel the squeeze yet? We haven’t even accounted for nation states and corporations yet. For example, Michael Saylor, Chairman of Microstrategy, has already accumulated 140k BTC to hold on the balance sheet of his software company. Are you prepared anon?
Some people think the remaining liquid supply is even less than that. For instance, @luke_broyles suggested remaining liquid supply was 3 million. This assumes all the remaining BTC on exchanges and then some wiggle room for additional bitcoin sellers on top of that. That would be roughly 1.1M BTC from sellers, as the BTC balance sheets for all exchanges show 1.9M remaining there.
coinglass
Bitcoin Balances on all Exchanges Tracker, Bitcoin Exchange Reserve, Crypto Exchange Reserve | CoinGlass
CoinGlass provides a page for tracking the Bitcoin wallet balance of major cryptocurrency exchanges. By viewing the wallet balance data and chart a...
3M BTC / 7.9B people = 38k sats per person 😵💫.
NOW let’s factor in how much we think nation states and corporations will want to gobble up. Below is a reasonable breakdown by percentage. I don’t know if these percentages will be right or not, but they are just estimates to determine what the average individual will have leftover in terms of sats. I’m open to feedback on this, but this gives us a framework for conceptualizing and further conversations.
Nation States 65%-70%
Corps 20%-25%
Individuals 5%-15%
This is assuming nation states with out capabilities of printing their own currency are already accumulating or mining and that at some point nation states WITH money printers will start to print fiat to purchase BTC. Corporations will eventually realize the cash holdings and treasuries on their balance sheets are melting ice cubes and will search for ways of retaining their cash value.
On the high end of the scale. 15% of 4.85M, liquid supply, is 727,500 BTC. Doing the math once again brings us the following:
728k BTC / 7.9B people = 9208 sats per individual🤯😵
To give you perspective there are 50M’ish millionaires. I’ve seen as high as 65M, but these numbers are all just estimates and I’m not trying to squeeze the most sexy number I can to make myself feel better. I am honestly searching for the most likely possibility.
728k / 50M = .014 BTC per millionaire
I think Sat/dollar parity is only the beginning, however this isn’t even a conversation on price, just scarcity. At the time of this writing the dollar price of 10k sats is $2.70. You have no excuse. We are so early. Are you stacking?
#hyperbitcoinization
