Seth Michael Steele

There’s nothing like having so much fun with family that you forget your routine obligations. My family is not the feeling and the feeling I cannot touch. True value is given. Thanks Satoshi. #Bitcoin

Too much control turns into corruption, our limitations are what make life beautiful. What’s wrong with more power to the people? Imagine if more people could have a say faster. Decisions made more efficiently, less resources wasted. Imagine a system that didn’t push you to opt out, instead pulling you to opt in. In bitcoin there are no heroes only double edged swords.

Not everyone will be awakened by Bitcoin’s ideological and social justice narratives, but they will eventually be impacted by its systemic and economic implications which will attribute to the former. The more centralized an institution is the greater the risk of discrimination when it comes to resource allocation. Bitcoin is my favorite because it has no favorite. Everyone has a fair chance of making something for themselves with bitcoin, that doesn’t make it easy, only worth it.

When given the choice between disappointment and appreciation, make sure you choose appreciation. A 30% drawdown from ATH and a mediocre 2025 in general has been dismal for spirits, but the outlook is still overwhelmingly positive for bitcoin: Institutional adoption remains robust: BlackRock accounts for $25 billion worth of buys in 2025 alone. Supply dynamics are getting even stronger: strongest it’s ever been and the weakest it’ll ever be again. Long term performance is strong: we are still up 5x+ from the lows in 2022… The only asset that had similar performance from similar size in my opinion was NVIDIA. Nvidia outperformed Bitcoin, but I have no exposure, because an unstoppable company is still infinitely more vulnerable to total failure than Bitcoin is.

1 year performance: BTC: -9% Gold: +65% S&P: +15% 2 year performance: BTC: +102% Gold: +111% S&P: +43% 3 year performance: BTC: +425% Gold: +139% S&P: +78% 4 year performance: BTC: +81% Gold: +142% S&P: +47% 5 year performance: BTC: +282% Gold: +132% S&P: +85% 6 year performance: BTC: +1,105% Gold: +192% S&P: +111% When in doubt zoom out.

With only 3 prior cycles I do not believe Bitcoin’s behaviors are set in stone, it’s completely possible and in my opinion logical that if hyperbitcoinization were to occur, every cycle beforehand would be a statistical outlier. You can’t tell how well the dress fits until it’s all the way on. Maybe Bitcoin won’t be of its own influence until it encapsulates a significantly higher portion of the global economy. Maybe we are just getting a taste of structural Bitcoin as opposed to emotional, maybe the ones giving it structure are actually trying to shake all of that emotion out. I think this is short term bearish long term very bullish. Emotion and Bitcoin were never supposed to mix, if you wince at the beast it will eat you, but if you can look it in the eyes unfazed it will show you respect, not once, an everlasting contract. Bitcoin greed and fear being at 16 right now is like a full grown man being afraid of the dark…which may still be more understandable than a full grown man being scared of NGD. All I’m saying is S curves show diminishing returns until they don’t, noise isn’t just noise, it was once signal and it will be again when the crowd forgets: they always forget. Don’t miss the forest for the trees we are still in the prelude.

If the 4 year cycle is broken does that mean no more parabolic pumps? That brutally cheap sats aren’t coming back? Has Bitcoin been co-opted by the system it was built to destroy? Or is this just a small step in the elaborate process of BTC fixing the world? It’s possible institutions will smooth bears and accelerate bulls. Maybe the cycle didn’t break it’s just accelerated in its evolution, it’s always changed a little, this time it changed a lot. Bitcoin was built to win not to stay fringe. I can only control my own sats.

If the last two months have shown me anything it’s that I have no idea what the next two months have in store, but I will look back two months from now and have more sats than I have today. We are down 30% from the top. Dropping another 30% would put us at $60k, I don’t think that’s as likely as a 100% rally. I refuse to believe what we see is unhealthy, every stress test strengthens Bitcoin. I believe any gap between my expectations for Bitcoin and reality is simply suppression. The amount of catalysts and dollars printed doesn’t seem to correlate with the price of bitcoin as I’d typically expect, I attribute this to Bitcoin’s evolution, what I understood as the most dynamic index of global economic health and sentiment has seemingly become more so to an extent I have trouble recognizing. This state of perplexion may be the only constant I’ve witnessed when it comes to what to expect next. It wasn’t just finding bitcoin: every day since has been world changing. The value is something you have to look for, but finding new value in the same world is magic. The world is magic; most people can’t see it. Terminal debt spirals are only btc rocket fuel, holding fiat is like betting on the gas in your tank to increase thanks to no outside measures nor your own. Despite all the fear, let me tell you: bear markets are FUN all the LARPs let themselves out and the signal is immaculate, bears are always for building not panicking or taking your foot off the pedal. I made this bed and I’ll lie in it even if it’s just to piss them off.

There is no such thing as a free lunch; sometimes matters must be taken into your own hands. Nothing is infinite, but if it were, it would be useless. Let it all unwind. I buy and hold spot: me vs me. I could out hodl anyone in a slop n chop market and I could out sit anyone in a hot car: it’s basically just a sauna to me.