MattA

🚨 from the launch of BlackRock’s GLD (Gold ETF) gold pulled back sharply almost exactly two years from the launch, then went on to make a powerful multi-year run over the subsequent five years. BlackRock’s IBIT (Bitcoin ETF) is now exactly two years old… 💡

NO fkn Bueno! 🤬 I have seen this study of beer also. Chinese beers were the highest in the world & German beer was the lowest in pesticide remnants.

🤔 Feels to me like a few obvious things are happening all at once within Bitcoin & shitcoins. 1) Big political names like the Trump family getting involved brings global heat & scrutiny to target & hurt the businesses around them. 2) the drawdown shrinks profits & weakens a big Republican donor base. 3) the usual leverage is getting completely flushed out like every cycle. 4) the prices are being reset low enough for banks & hedge funds to finally step in big & load up cheap before the next breakout run up. So, the little guys get shaken out, the donors get squeezed, & Wall Street quietly reloads at a discount… same fkn game, different cycle.

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Emergent technologies are inherently volatile… Amazon (AMZN) 94% collapse in price 1999–2001 56% drop from 2021–2022 Meta (META) 77% peak-to-trough decline from 2021-2022 bottom. Nvidia (NVDA) 85% drawdown 2007–2008 66% from late 2021 to late 2022 Tesla (TSLA) 50% sell off 2024–2025 Bitcoin (BTC) 84% down in the 2018 bear market. 77% in the 2021–22 crash following the peak.

Thursday don’t forget to #stretch

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