European Federalization is an idea as old as the Union 🇪🇺. Never happened because after World War II the original Member States could not reasonably trust each other. Today we benefit from the results of almost 80 years of european cooperation, peace and great prosperity for the continent.
The trust is there and we now have a question of will. If we begin with the #FourthTurning conclusion that there is a 80 year cycle and at the end there is always a war (i.e. Ukraine 🇺🇦 vs Russia 🇷🇺) which is the reason for fear and thus pushes new institutions with greater strength to be born, we can have a good guess on the future. Make no mistake this war is one against the 80 year old system after World War II, against Bretton Woods, against United States 🇺🇸 hegemony, US dollar reserve currency status and the Euroatlantic alliance. We are seeing turmoil from the interior be it on migration or nationalism ideas which are fueled by social media. One should really ask themselves who benefits most from this turmoil, it certainly is not the european Member States.
The EU has today the SAFE program to finance military infrastructure and equipment. Talks on eurobonds. Freezing of Russian assets, then issuing of EU debt and transfer to Ukraine to have liquidity to continue fighting. We see ever more conversations on federalism and doing away with the veto right. Most importantly about a European Army in the context in which the US wants to focus more on other regions of the world.
The EU funds have improved infrastructure on the continent and we are pushed to handle and finance our own defense. We have the technology and factories to do so. Each army has a supreme commander and that person is voted democratically.
My argument is that the EU is a few steps away from federalism. The historic context is perfect, the geopolitical atmosphere is ripe, done properly the EU 🇪🇺 will come out of this Fourth Turning with even stronger institutions and can double the economy within 10 years. Time will tell.
