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Manifold

Will Bitcoin activate a new soft-fork before the end of 2025?

4% chance. Resolves to YES if a new soft-fork is proposed, implemented in Bitcoin Core, most miners update their software and somehow it is "locked...

) https://nitter.moomoo.me/pic/card_img%2F1687965296026431488%2Frq50Jfj6%3Fformat%3Djpg%26name%3D800x419 https://nitter.moomoo.me/fiatjaf/status/1689777143528804352#m

**RT @tabconf:** TABconf will also have discussion on this. Early September is another good time to learn in person. :) https://nitter.moomoo.me/tabconf/status/1689764942470156288#m

**Response to @fiatjaf:** \- Apparently Lightning developers have started to realize it is not a good idea to close a channel in order to redeem a trimmed HTLC -- but it's not clear what they must do instead \- Simplicity trumps everything \- Lightning will rely more and more on reputation and game theory https://nitter.moomoo.me/fiatjaf/status/1689625204106854401#m

The latest @ChaincodeLabs (https://nitter.moomoo.me/ChaincodeLabs) podcast episode with @rusty\_twit (https://nitter.moomoo.me/rusty_twit) is pretty good. Some things I took from it: \- Rusty wants anyprevout.xyz (

BIP-118: SIGHASH_ANYPREVOUT and SIGHASH_ANYPREVOUTANYSCRIPT

) and hopes that will happen as soon as possible, but he doesn't have a concrete plan for activation \- Lightning is currently overcomplicated https://nitter.moomoo.me/fiatjaf/status/1689625202123042816#m

**RT @Truth_in_Number:** I saw a post today saying myocarditis deaths were blowing up in the US. Myocarditis is a very rare cause of death in the US. 2019, it accounted for 0.02% of all deaths in US. In 2020 myocarditis death rate jumped 9.9% DROPPED 10.3% in 2021 Dropped 8% in 2022 https://nitter.moomoo.me/Truth_in_Number/status/1689430180690026496#m

**RT @damusapp:** 😂 https://nitter.moomoo.me/damusapp/status/1642966122231373824#m