*The Drainers Think of all the newer players in crypto now: government, Wall Street, tradfi converts, and Jonny-come-latelies, plus corporation treasury reserve FOMO-ers – not to mention hackers with record-breaking heists, dodgy projects with worthless tokens, and pump-and-dump schemes. These players have always been part of the space, but now the market seems to be relying on these “institutions” to somehow push crypto to the next level. The trouble is, they don’t care about crypto – they care about fiat, and will drain fiat out of crypto, effectively deflating it. The above old-schoolers, the non-drainers, become exit liquidity for the drainers, who are highly skilled and remorseless. The drainers are growing, and that’s not good.*
*this boomer sees $250,000 in 2029, not this Christmas, and investment returns lie elsewhere*
*there’s clearly more to the story, with Strive itself forking over overvalued shares (its mNAV is in the 3-8 range, depending on dilution), so the real bitcoin-value that SMLR shareholders receive is roughly aligned with where Wall Street is trading that stock this morning. There’s no arbitraged premium when you’re paying with air! The price of Strive shares when they unlock later this year, is unknowable.*
*the average individual still does not have his or her finger on the problem, i.e. they perceive that something is kind of wrong with the economy in general but cannot link it to the nature of fiat money* View quoted note →
*Narrative management: "We tolerate sound money". - A visible gold bull market signals tolerance for a "traditional hedge", undercutting the story that authorities crush every escape hatch. It buys legitimacy while more programmable rails (stablecoins/CBDCs) normalize.* View quoted note →
*Gold can satisfy the public's "store-of-value" impulse without granting a parallel, censorship-resistant payments rail* View quoted note →
*We need to destructure government so that civilization and industry can restructure itself.* View quoted note →
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Doomberg: In his weekly newsletter Tree Rings, Luke Gromen has been arguing persuasively that the US stock market now effectively backstops the US Treasury market. With foreign buyers limiting their purchases of US debt, any meaningful fall in stock prices would trigger a significant crisis for the Federal Reserve. The primary drivers of this direct linkage are the persistent US fiscal deficits and the strong correlation between government tax receipts and equity prices. Should a major market correction occur, deficits would surely blow out beyond what can reasonably be managed absent direct monetization. … It is no exaggeration to say that these three pillars—NVIDIA’s designs, TSMC’s foundry expertise, and ASML’s near monopoly on the most advanced lithography machines—form the foundation of the current stock market boom.
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