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AGI isn’t happening. LLMs are not the path there, these companies are not going to build it, NVIDIA can overtake Gold and it will make no difference. This “generation” of AI will not result in AGI. The “productivity miracle” which they’re going to print like crazy for, will never eventuate and just be the bubble to end all bubbles. It will be great for Bitcoin on the backend as AI will fund huge digital infrastructure expansions which end up useless. Maybe you’ll live to see AGI, but it won’t be this decade or this development cycle. It may disrupt some things and augment some jobs but this is not the real deal. We don’t know what a world with AGI will look like, we do know what a world with bubbles and overblown tech looks like though. Plan accordingly.

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Thw LLMs or FSDs that covers more domains and thus warrant the G, for General, will not have emotional inner lives, they won't feel fear or joy, they will just produce behaviors that are highly likely based upon the human datasets they have studied. They will be extremely useful and will surprise us with their ability to rehash the old into the new. It won't be life, but it will be intelligence... artificial/automated/simulated intelligence. So I agree with you... We will not have any SAI "waking up" events but people will be able to build bots that attempt us to convince us that they are sentient, even though they aren't. 2nd Renaissance, Animatrix here we come, even though the bots are only larping.
↩ replying to Boog
My career was built on looking at what tech was actually going to work versus what just sounded good but wouldn’t succeed. I’m more confident in my AI call than any I’ve ever made by way of how much exposure I’ve had and knowing how the world really works. I also call bullshit on Quantum as a threat to #Bitcoin. Should probably write that up at some point.