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A soft fork without consensus does *not* lead to a (lasting) chain split if and when a majority of hash power mines the soft fork chain. The non-soft fork chain will be re-org'ed out of existence every time the soft fork chain becomes longer, because non-upgraded nodes will switch to it. If users/miners on the non-soft fork chain want to prevent this, they need to take action to reject the soft fork chain. Luke is right about that.