My take?
There was no bull market this year.
So it’s not destiny that there will be a bear market next year.
Could be, but it’s not destiny is all I’m sayin
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Ironically, the simplest explanation for the apparent death of the 4-year cycle is the increased expectation for a 4-year cycle.
That is, the more there is an expectation for a blow-off top followed by a subsequent crash, the more desire there is to front-run both. Consequently, the bull starts earlier in the cycle (which was clearly observably beginning in late 2023 - roughly a full year ahead of 'schedule'); and then, as the bull really should be peaking, increasingly there will be efforts to front-run the subsequent bear (which would explain the muted bull we are currently observing now).
Future analysis?
Unfortunately, no. There's a world of difference between providing an explanation based on observed expectations and providing a prediction based on inherently unpredictable expectations.
Agree 👍
We'll see. Volatility is back.