My take?
There was no bull market this year.
So it’s not destiny that there will be a bear market next year.
Could be, but it’s not destiny is all I’m sayin
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Steaming hot one HODL
Meh. He's a big deal so never reads replies.
Anybody who understands Bitcoin knows that this is a blip, not worthy of comment.
Wrong he replies
And I zap ⚡️
Replies & sends fat zaps as long as I’ve followed him⚡️
This guy zaps 👆
Back when you first came on nostr you were very conversational and we had a few fine talks when hardly any of the newbs knew who you were, being unaware of even what was meant by 6.15 and I helped educate them.
Now it seems all you do is whine about shit, especially boomers which is annoying. Just sayin' Bro. Do what you want with it. And GF your zaps.
Are you a boomer? Is that why you don’t like me talking about boomers?
I don't give a fuck what you talk about Bro.
You've lost your way from what you started out as.
Bit sour init
Its not your thing. Stay the fuck out of it, init?
Not Bold.
Stupid.
@HODL
This is your best defender? Sad.
Another whiney bitch. Maybe its a nostr vibe now.
You are on your own and looking like a fool.
Your demigod hodl ain't coming to save you.
That's fine as long as you understand how retarded that is.
Go ahead and do it again. Its nostr and any dumb fuck can write notes here.
What did I start out as?
lol this thread made me laugh
some people are just on different relays
Nostr can be like that
That makes sense.
Helpful and positive, not a whiney cringe doomer.
"we are all gonna die someday" No shit Sherlock but I don't need to hear about it every day.
"Fucking boomers caused all this." Total bullshit. We all inherit the world our forefathers left us. You deal with it and make it better. All that does is feed into the devisive, negative mood running through the country right now. This is what the Deep State (read Zionists/communists) want; division in every situation. Get us to hate each other for ANY reason. It starts with influencers and filters down to the plebs to the point where I'm hearing hate speech directed towards almost every demographic all the time now.
X and nostr have been weird lately, especially since they killed Charlie Kirk so its not just you, but you are the one I'll pick on as I've known you online for at least a decade and it seems like all of your notes are negative now.
I will admit to feeling more negative since Charlie Kirk was killed, I think the reason why is that we’re past the rubicon now. And there’s nothing good that follows.
That said remembering you’re going to die isn’t about death, but about life. It’s important to remember that we will die. So that we may live. I don’t view that as a negative message. Memento Mori.
MEMEnto mori has a negative connotation tho
When Roman consuls/generals paraded on Rome they assigned a guy to whisper him “remember you must die”, so he don’t become too power hungry
Carpe diem is more accurate
When you phrase it like that, fine. Usually its "We are all gonna die" period.
And I think you are correct in that the country passed a Turning Point. I don't think civil war is coming but surely more civil unrest. We recently bought a citadel in a small town in the Ozarks which is over 90% white and I'm loving it.
And I'm not the boss of you Hodl.
I read and listen a lot online and its not enough that they divide us into right and left, blue and red, cis and gender whatever, but the generational divisions are the stupidest of all. If you are born a year or two this or that side of a date you are automatically this or that. I run across Boomer hate every day on X where youngers curse their elders and gloat that they will all be dead soon and the world will magically improve. Pure lunacy but they can't see it.
The years not over yet. 🤙
lots of peace treaties in the making, patience
Should probably stay humble and stack sats about it
Well that would be just too easy...
Forever staying "moderately" humble and stacking sats 🫡
If this was it, this next bear will look like a cute cub.
There’s no exuberant energy to be released.
This time it's different 😎
Personally I'm of the belief that the bull market did happen. It just happened for paper Bitcoin instead of actual corn thus no major bull in price. I don't buy for a minute that these entities actually bought the Bitcoin that was supposed to have been acquired at the time and are playing games to acquire in the bear.
Look at the price of bitcoin with CPI removed, or another means of peeling inflation off of the price. This will show that we haven’t really broken the 2021 all time high with any authority.
Yet they want us to believe enormous net inflows were happening. I'm sure the 100k psychological barrier did introduce a lot of first time sellers but highly doubt enough to be an offset of all the institutional money that was supposed to be flowing in. It just doesn't add up to me.
I agree, degenerates have been confined to after hours and weekends. Now it is a slow grind up for the patient. But WTF do I know.
I wonder how many BTCTC’s get rekked on Monday? Could be more pain in store. I’ll just keep stacking.
All growed up.
🧡👊🏻🍻
We had a bear market this year, but a very odd one where the price went up. But as the market is determined purely by vibes, it was still, in fact, a bear market.
💯 The surety of cycle theory is the best indicator that it’s not real. Bull starts when everyone is depressed that the bull is over and the cycle chart says it’s time for a bear.
Exactly. Market cycles aren’t written in stone.
it’s over
It’s always a bull market.
We're up almost 100% on the 12 month chart. We certianly are in a bull market. Market cycles are strong. There's always reason to beleive "this time will be different." And it always is, but the trends remain.
18% YTD. It’s October. There’s no bull market.
Year long consolidation around 100k. Time to push 1 Milly to 2026.
Supercycle
HODL when you have a family and kids, what does your portfolio look like in terms of allocation to BTC, cash stocks, etc.
Did your allocation and risk tolerance and volatility tolerance change once you had kids?
Mainstream now:
“It’s the denominator”
OHhhhhhhhhhh
Yes
There was no bull market this year yet..
Blame it on Paper Bitcoin Summer™.
Big bear markets come after btc gets way higher than its 200d moving average. Never did that this cycle
Make uncropped image captions great again
@HODL always makes me want to watch Minority Report in this get up.
Here’s a likely why there wasn’t and why it’s possible that we won’t have a parabolic bull run, at least in in the foreseeable future:
View quoted note →
Ironically, the simplest explanation for the apparent death of the 4-year cycle is the increased expectation for a 4-year cycle.
That is, the more there is an expectation for a blow-off top followed by a subsequent crash, the more desire there is to front-run both. Consequently, the bull starts earlier in the cycle (which was clearly observably beginning in late 2023 - roughly a full year ahead of 'schedule'); and then, as the bull really should be peaking, increasingly there will be efforts to front-run the subsequent bear (which would explain the muted bull we are currently observing now).
Future analysis?
Unfortunately, no. There's a world of difference between providing an explanation based on observed expectations and providing a prediction based on inherently unpredictable expectations.
Agree 👍
We'll see. Volatility is back.