Thread

Replies (21)

Summary of today’s show… Bitcoin price/action looks deceptively calm while underlying monetary, social, and political stress is extreme and building; the core argument is that volatility has been suppressed in markets and is instead erupting in society, and that this tension will ultimately resolve in favor of scarce, non‑political collateral like Bitcoin over time. ​ Market calm vs social chaos: Asset prices (equities, Bitcoin around ~88k, bonds) look orderly with low implied volatility, yet everyday life feels unstable: housing, cost of living, and political tensions are all worsening. Policymakers have “mowed the lawn” in financial markets for years (QE, rate suppression, bailouts), removing natural volatility from prices and pushing it into the social contract instead (rising crime, protests, extremism, assassination attempts, and political radicalization, especially among younger cohorts). ​ Volatility suppression and “unnatural” stability: Volatility is framed as the natural state of complex systems, like grass that grows unevenly unless constantly cut; continuous intervention by central banks and governments is described as an unsustainable effort to hide entropy rather than remove it. Asset calm is therefore considered fake stability; the real system pressure shows up in social unrest, declining trust in institutions, and a pervasive sense that “something is off” even though charts do not yet reflect crisis conditions. ​ Inflationary system vs deflationary technology: The fiat regime is characterized as structurally inflationary: examples include the median U.S. home rising from sub‑$100k in 1980 to roughly $500k+ today without commensurate improvement in the underlying asset, illustrating purchasing power erosion under post‑1971 monetary rules. ​ In contrast, technology and especially AI are described as inherently deflationary, constantly making goods and services cheaper and more efficient; the core collision is between this deflationary tech force and an inflation‑dependent debt system that must keep nominal values rising to avoid collapse. ​ Housing, Trump 50‑year mortgage, and global affordability: The new Trump administration is portrayed as preparing to formally acknowledge a U.S. housing crisis and float ultra‑long (e.g., 50‑year) mortgages as a political fix, which the speaker interprets as financial engineering to stretch payments rather than address root affordability. ​ Japan is cited as another major economy now facing a visible affordability and inflation issue after decades of “it’s different here” narrative, reinforcing the view that the late‑stage fiat problem is global, not just American. ​ Bitcoin, gold, and the “missing” BTC vol: Gold and silver are making new all‑time highs and signaling a global repricing and re‑collateralization of the system, while Bitcoin is off its October 2025 ATH by ~30% and trading sideways, prompting questions about “where the volatility went.” ​ The thesis is that Bitcoin’s lack of explosive upside right now does not mean the thesis is broken; instead, macro suppression, policy uncertainty, and transition dynamics are delaying the next major move, with Bitcoin still framed as the end‑state collateral that benefits once fiat volatility can no longer be contained in politics and social fabric. View quoted note →