THINKING ABOUT THINKING IN BETS
given that i happen to be reading annie duke’s “thinking in bets” rn—duke refers to a study, and the reasoning is not that prediction betting makes for truth:
“I’ll admit to (embarrassingly) being a bit of a sucker for the idea of the “truth machine” that these prediction market companies are trying to hold onto. Mansour wasn’t wrong when he recently described prediction markets as offering reporters “a tool, a stock, or a ticker or a market . . . a number now to all of these things that they’re talking about.”
it’s that putting up money or betting may reduce confirmatory bias or “motivated reasoning” which we unconsciously rely on when decision making—for lack of a better word: ‘groupthink’—which unfortunately happens even to judges & scientists (thinking along party lines).
(she still had a stop loss rule as a poker player: leave the game if you are losing more than $600; i am not sure if she’ll address addiction in the book, as i am not finished yet.)
point being: gambling does not make for better or more truthful thinking, but, i see why it could shut a lot of opinionated mouths.
Prediction markets barely make money; sportsbooks make money
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