All bitcoin treasury companies CEO need to answer the following question and provide their justification before you invest your money in their company:
If we can get a "risk-free” return of 50% Annualized Recurring Revenue (ARR) on Bitcoin itself, why take the risk on these "copycat" treasury companies?
The short answer is: Most do not offer a consistent cash return (dividend) that beats 50%.
Instead, their "return" to you is Accretion (getting more Bitcoin per share than you could buy yourself) or Operational Yield (using the Bitcoin to generate income). If they cannot prove they are doing this faster than your 50% hurdle, your skepticism about them "front-running" investors is justified.
Here is the breakdown of the actual returns and yields these companies are currently generating to justify your investment:
1. The "Accretion" Return (BTC Yield)
Most treasury companies (like Semler Scientific and Metaplanet) do not pay cash dividends. Their "return" is measured by BTC Yield—a metric showing how much they increased the Bitcoin backing per share by selling stock at a premium and buying more coins.
•Semler Scientific (SMLR)
◦The Return: They reported a BTC Yield of 30.6% YTD (as of Nov 2025).
◦The Reality: This means for every share you held, your "claim" on Bitcoin grew by ~30% without you spending more money.
◦Verdict: 30.6% Accretion < 50% ARR. If your alternative is truly a 50% risk-free return, Semler’s accretion alone does not beat it. You would only invest if you believe the stock premium will expand significantly (gambling on the stock, not the Bitcoin).
•Metaplanet (Japan)
◦The Return: Like MicroStrategy, they issue shares to buy BTC. Their strategy relies on the "premium" to NAV collapsing and expanding.
◦The Reality: Recent reports show Metaplanet and similar "imitators" have been hit hard, with premiums collapsing when BTC price reversed.
◦Verdict: High risk. Without a massive premium to exploit, they cannot generate high accretion.
2. The "Operational" Return (Actual Yield)
Some companies are trying to generate actual yield from the Bitcoin they hold, rather than just hoping the price goes up. This is closer to the "consistent return" you are looking for.
•DeFi Technologies / Valour
◦The Return: They launched a "Yield Bearing Bitcoin ETP" that pays approximately 5.65% yield. They achieve this by staking Bitcoin on the Core chain or using validtors.
◦The Reality: This is a consistent, "real" yield, but 5.65% is far below your 50% benchmark.
•MARA Holdings (Marathon)
◦The Return: They actively manage their stack. They allocated ~2,000 BTC to "yield strategies" (like covered calls or lending) and hold a massive stack of ~50,000+ BTC.
◦The Reality: They use this yield to pay for operations (mining costs), not to pay you. The benefit to you is that they don't have to sell as much Bitcoin to keep the lights on.
3. The "Front-Running" Risk
Your concern about "front-running" is valid. The business model of these companies is:
1Front-Run: Insiders/Company issue shares (dilution).
2Buy BTC: They use your money to buy BTC.
3Hope: They hope the Bitcoin price rises fast enough to cover the dilution.
If the BTC Yield (Accretion) is lower than the Cost of Capital (Dilution), they are essentially destroying value.
•Warning Sign: Recent data shows ~60% of Bitcoin treasuries were "underwater" on their purchases during market dips. If they are underwater, they are not generating a return for you; they are just losing your money with leverage.
Summary Verdict
If we truly 50% risk-free ARR on Bitcoin, none of these treasury companies justify the investment risk right now.
•Semler offers ~30% accretion (lower than 50%).
•DeFi Tech offers ~6% yield (much lower than 50%).1
•MicroStrategy (The Original) is the only one that has historically achieved ~100%+ BTC Yield during peak bull runs, but even they are volatile.
