"DIAS MELHORES VIRÃO" @ Parque das Nações, Lisboa, Portugal (2025/12/14)

"So in the year to come: on the geopolitical front I’m going to be interested in attempts to concretize a compute-dollar system, moves made by the Compute Axis, the Gulf’s attempts to manage its role in the global AI value chain, and how “Sovereign AI” will be used to lock allies and clients into dependence on our tech stack. These projects overlap and contradict. Some require vertical integration under U.S. control, some require horizontal outsourcing to private actors and client states. Some require decisive action and speed and flexibility. But all do require permanent and durable institutions to build some sort of global technological system, even if it is just an appendage of a desperate gambit to preserve geostrategic primacy. Is any of this going to work? I hope not. Do you want to live in a world where America manufactures sovereignty crises to graft its national champions onto various countries? Do we want to have a global competition among elites racing to offer up their nations’ digital futures on a platter in hopes for crumbs? Probably not. Which parts of this vision will succeed, which will fail, and which will transform into something more ugly?"

The AI Bubble in 2026 (1/4)

Part 1: On the coming geopolitics of the compute stack, or Our New Imperial Strategy

#AI #GenerativeAI #AIBubble #SovereignAI #FossilFuels

"OpenAI shortened its vesting period for new employees to six months from the industry standard of 12 months in April. Elon Musk’s xAI, an OpenAI competitor, made a similar change in the late summer, people familiar with the change said. XAI didn’t respond to a request for comment. The decision to loosen or do away with restrictions meant to ensure new hires stick around reflects the frenzied competition for top-tier technical talent within the AI industry. Tech companies typically have a one-year vesting cliff for new employees, preventing them from having to give away stock to hires who leave quickly or don’t work out. But with AI companies including Meta Platforms, Google and Anthropic wooing top researchers with pay packages that can be worth $100 million or more, researchers and engineers have been able to hold out for the most-attractive terms, and in many cases have been quick to leave jobs they have found not to their liking. OpenAI is already doling out far more stock-based compensation than other tech companies, owing to an intense talent war it is waging with its competitors. The company expects to spend $6 billion this year on such costs—almost half of its projected revenue—according to financial documents sent to investors over the summer and viewed by The Wall Street Journal." https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-ends-vesting-cliff-for-new-employees-in-compensation-policy-change-d4c4c2cd #AI #GenerativeAI #OpenAI #SiliconValley #BigTech