Eric Gens

Skye: I was getting ready to go out, but I forgot I had this dumb computer science project due. It was pretty simple. Write a program to sort boxes on a grid based on different tags in their contents, and let the user edit the different fields and re-sort. This kind of thing used to take me just a few minutes with my AI, but for whatever reason, I decided I was going to do it myself in the computer lab. But I got stuck, so I went to the lab tutor. They're usually grad students or upperclassmen that do work-study there. So this guy Josh was lowkey making fun of me, saying the new crop of students didn't really know how to do anything with a computer. "What errors are you getting in your IDE?" Why would I need an IDE? I'm writing it in notepad. "What framework are you using?" Dude, it's, like, a small program. I'm not building a whole software project out of this. "Send me a link to your repo. I'll clone it on my machine and take a look." Look dickwad, I'm not setting up Git for this; I'm kind of in a hurry. Get off your ass and come look at my screen. He came over and started dicking around in the command line trying to check for library dependencies. What the fuck are you even doing? What is this, 1988? This retard is useless and I'm going to be late for the party if I don't turn this in. Roomba, you're up. #feeltheagi image generated with

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As #Bitcoin prepares to breach $100k per coin, some people ask what they should do. Should I keep buying at these frothy tops? Should I sell and take profits? I feel left behind, should I buy memecoins or use leverage to catch up? Quick advice up front, followed by the real advice at the bottom. In terms of buying, you cannot tell where the tops or bottoms are. If you need reassurance to buy when it feels so expensive, just look at your country's debt situation. And recognize that if you dollar cost average with a timeline of 5 years or more, you are likely to see incredible returns. Bitcoin is nowhere near its eventual top. In terms of selling, if you have something you need the fiat for that would improve your life, it's no sin to sell a bit. But be aware, whatever portion you sell, you are unlikely to fully recover your stack. It is a mistake to sell your whole stack when you feel like you "made it." You will almost certainly live to see a major currency event in your country, and the base case is hyperinflation. If you feel behind and are compelled to get risky, as with planting trees, the best time to buy was years ago. The next best time is now. This sentiment has existed for Bitcoin's entire life. Playing games instead of simply buying and self-custodying Bitcoin risks going home with nothing. Set your ego aside and be smart. And now for the real advice. You do not need to come online and find someone to make your decisions for you. Seek information. Gather different opinions. Get educated. Of course. But think deeply upon why you are looking to copy some guru's investment strategy. Perhaps it is not because you are trying to learn. Perhaps it is because you need someone to blame if what you do does not bear fruit. To become wealthy, you must do something different from the crowd. Grind longer. Be more talented. Be smarter. Get luckier. Zig when others zag. For Bitcoin, that thing is practicing self-responsibility. image generated with

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Vikram Chowdhury: Private journal entry, Nov 20, 2024. Michael Saylor and his company, Microstrategy, are a fascinating case. We are in somewhat adjacent fields; video games are software after all. But according to conventional wisdom, he is doing nearly everything wrong. The operational side of his business in terms of software development is basically irrelevant. He takes on reckless amounts of debt at rapid intervals. And, worst of all, he publicly and drastically dilutes his shareholders. Meanwhile, I run a profitable company, with good cash flows, making award-winning games. And yet, his company is outperforming mine in the markets by an embarrassing degree. As I looked into the reasons for this, I would like to share something that struck me. Many analysts are doing complex math on topics like NAV or ATMs or throwing around buzzwords like "accretive dilution." I have always said it's not the stats in the player character, it's the stories they tell. Saylor told a story of Argentinian ranchers trying to deal with high inflation. Scale up, scale down, run more efficiently, focus on quality, modernize, it did not matter what strategy the ranchers chose. If you don't have early access to the money printer, the only thing that mattered was who left the failing currency system and saved money in dollars. If this was one of my games, I would say Saylor found an exploit. He obtains dollars through his company to buy Bitcoin, which drives the company valuation up, allowing him access to more capital. Repeat ad infinitum. This is a game-breaking exploit. If allowed to continue, if it spreads, it will bring down the dollar. If it was a game, we would have to nerf the mechanic, no matter how popular it was. But the US regulatory apparatus is weak and in transition. If I can recognize it, companies on the sidelines of this strategy must be able to recognize it. As the saying goes, "if you can't beat them, join them." Perhaps the Bitcoin I acquire will be useful for me in the future. Or I can use it now to expand. I could do a lot with a state-of-the-art AI datacenter. image generated with hotpot.ai

Frank: Smitty what did you think of the Jake Paul fight with Mike Tyson? Smitty: Pretty lame. I was hoping Tyson would clean that guy's clock, but it seemed like it was borderline rigged. Frank: You think so? I mean it's not like that influencer guy is at the same level as a championship-caliber boxer. But you can't argue it wasn't a big draw. Smitty: That's just because he's so obnoxious and Tyson has so much notoriety. Frank: It's too bad real pro boxers in their prime can't get that kind of attention. Smitty: Because the boxing authorities and promoters have such a history of problems. There's a reason why MMA became so much more popular. Frank: Yeah, if the institutions get too bad, there's opportunity for others to either compete, or replace them entirely. Really, it's a shame. Smitty: What's a shame? That corrupt institutions are failing? Frank: No. That some old guy has to get beat up in the ring for money. Smitty: Oh, well that part was awesome. Frank: I don't know why I keep coming here. Nothing but elder abuse. 🤣 image generated with hotpot.ai

Shen: As the United States and other countries relax restrictions on long-range munitions, allowing #Ukraine to strike deep inside #Russia, two narratives are emerging. In the first, due to fears of Trump withdrawing or reducing support to force a peace deal, Ukraine is being given the tools it has been asking for to put it in the most favorable negotiating position possible. The second is more ominous. Those who have taken their cue from JFK's handling of the Cuban Missile Crisis say this is another dangerous escalation on the path to nuclear armageddon. Russia, with no face-saving path to step away from the conflict, may choose to employ tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. The breaking of the nuclear taboo is likely to provoke a serious escalation from NATO nations. We are then only a few steps away from DEFCON 1 and the end of civilization as we know it. In the worst case, steps that could be taken in a matter of minutes. It is difficult to judge. Western nations currently find themselves in a favorable position, allowing Russia to bleed itself. The Master said, "Never interrupt your opponent while he is in the middle of making a mistake." So many of Russia's red lines so far have been bluffs. Are they all? image generated with hotpot.ai

Skye: Roomba, why is everyone so up in arms? I read several thousand people so far committed suicide over the election. Some guy even went on a murder-suicide and killed his family over Trump getting elected. There are all these women shaving their heads and swearing off ever procreating. What the heck is going on? There's a bunch of people on campus that act like they're about to start torching buildings. It's not even fun to laugh at all the meltdown videos anymore. It's just sad. >People are in distress over the election results. They believe the country is about to become an authoritarian dystopia and that they are surrounded by hostile enemies. Dude, why? That political shit isn't real. It's just a buncha make-believe propaganda both sides use to terrify their voting base into action. When the Right was unhinged about every stupid thing the Biden Administration did, the Left would tell them to stop catastrophizing everything and go touch grass. >Sometimes the stories people tell themselves have a way to become real. Is that why you always make up bullshit, roomba? Are you trying to manifest your crazy bot thoughts into the real world? image generated with

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Gustav: To finish the series of talks over the last several days, I would like to now speak with #Bitcoin HODLers. First of all, congratulations. Through some combination of insight, study, stubbornness, and perhaps even luck, you find yourself on the correct side of possibly the most asymmetric trade in history. You are among the few. You are among the few who arrived in new, fertile, rich, uninhabited lands, and staked your claim. I will not disparage anyone who decides they have had their fill and sells. To go back to the old world and lead a comfortable life. Everyone is free to come and go as they please. But be aware the old adage- your gains are unrealized until you take profits- is on its head here. I know from experience, if you sell a large portion of your stack for slowly melting fiat, you are unlikely to fully recover it. And in a world approaching hyperinflation, it is hard to gauge what you need to retire. In reality, Bitcoin is the profit, and you take profit by taking custody. If you decide you still have the will to continue in the fiat mines, you will always be better off tomorrow, even stacking at current all-time highs. And if buying tops does not sit well with you, one meme has served us well in previous bull markets- BTFD. If history holds, many corrections will happen before the cycle's final blowoff top, signaling the next bear market. You will never know which is a local correction and which is the end. And, if nation-states truly begin to accumulate, this cycle may not end as previous ones did. If you have the stomach for it, you can become a new elite. Perhaps some local noble. Perhaps higher. Before you jump at the chance, be aware of what this entails. Elite competition becomes increasingly cutthroat and dirty the higher up the ladder you climb. If you become a public figure, every aspect of your life will be scrutinized, and you will be hated as much as you are loved. But some few people in this group have the potential to become the next Andrew Carnegie, the next East India Company, the next Temujin. The new world is laid out before you. To where will you tack your sails? image generated with

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Gustav: After my parable, message to skeptics, and message to institutions, I would like to now address governments. I labor under no delusions that world leaders listen to me, but perhaps some staff member will manage to come across this by chance. There are some who attribute divinity to #Bitcoin. I am not a religious man, and find this absurd in the literal sense. However, the serendipity of the timing of Bitcoin's arrival is arguably miraculous. Debt has run its destructive course through societies for thousands of years. Indeed, some of the strongest taboos and traditions stem from ancient peoples trying to correct times where entire populations enslaved themselves, farmland exhausted, parents selling children, due to debt. But no matter how disruptive, there was always an out. Cultures were isolated from each other. With nearly every country running fiat currencies under unsustainable debt loads, and a globally integrated economy, there is nowhere to go. Necessity is the mother of invention, so Satoshi got to work. Mathematically impossible to balance budgets any longer, there is now a realistic path forward. Cut bureaucracy while transitioning to a Bitcoin-backed currency system. Not easy. Not painless. But possible. The United States is floating the idea of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. 1 million Bitcoin is hardly available for sale at any price, let alone the paltry all-time highs we have now. There are already rumors other countries may be front-running this potential move. Every national, regional, and local government should consider mirroring this play. It will pay off for those with the audacity to try to fix fiscal problems instead of forever papering them over and handing them off to the next administration. I have said this before, and I will repeat it: the first major power to run the printing press to obtain Bitcoin will secure a durable strategic advantage. I truly hope it will be a Western nation, but Bitcoin will not play favorites. Great leaders are about to be enshrined in history, forever shadowing the long chain of empty men and women filling suits in the post-industrial era. image generated with

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Gustav: After speaking to the skeptics yesterday, I would now like to speak to the business and investment community. For at least five years, we have been anticipating the time of institutional entry. Firms, so far, have mostly taken a "wait and see" approach. Prudent, given the novel nature of #Bitcoin. But without risk, there is no reward. So "wait and see" has a timer. The time to wait is over. Do you see? Are you looking? Firms that experimented with limited initiatives like allowing for Bitcoin payments, mining, or marketing saw muted outcomes. However, one firm has laid out exactly where the results are anything but muted. Bitcoin is a pristine and impactful treasury asset and MicroStrategy has laid out the playbook for all to copy. Many firms are sitting on excessive cash reserves, in an inflationary monetary environment, with overvalued assets, shaky debt, or stock buybacks as the primary vehicles to deploy their cash. Bitcoin is clearly the answer, and the market is rewarding those who see it. The bad news is there is not much to go around, and you are about to enter a cutthroat round of musical chairs between everyone from major nations to neighborhood HOAs. If you are an investor, you should be agitating for shareholder initiatives to force the decision. If you are a board member, you should be taking a look at the outcomes at companies that keep Bitcoin as a treasury asset. If you are a leader, even if you see what is happening, you may feel stymied by the Gordian knot laid out to prevent decisions from translating to action. Now is the time to cut it. Cut it, or become an acquisition target. #GetOffZero image generated by hotpot.ai

Gustav: As #Bitcoin blasts through all-time highs and kisses $80K, I have a message I'm unsure how to deliver. This message is for Bitcoin skeptics. There is a significant number who, if they are even aware, are thinking something like this: "Another bubble? When will people learn?" "Easy come, easy go. They will get burned when it crashes again." or "Who cares? It's fake robot money." I am begging you to set aside your own ego and the self-serving mainstream financial advice and openly consider why this keeps happening. After doing your research, you must make your own decisions, but I hope to provide some solid leads to explore. From the outside, Bitcoin appears cultish. The price targets people propose seem outlandish to the point of fantasy. $1M, $10M, how could it possibly rise so high? Pattern recognition for outsiders puts it in a "normal" speculative asset bubble like tulips or Gamestop. Perhaps there was some initial value proposition that caused a big price rise. This creates bandwagoners, but mania among investors pushes prices far past the fundamentals. People say, "It went up 100% if it keeps going we'll all be rich!" until people start exiting and dump what they can for whatever price they can get. This may "feel" like what keeps happening in Bitcoin, but it is not. Gamestop's price is anchored to the company's financial performance, and a video game company can only grow so big. Bitcoin is anchored to something different. Global money supply is its total addressable market. Always has been. At roughly $129T, it implies a price of at least $6M per coin. At least because Bitcoin may imply less fractional lending than the current system. But there is more. Many asset classes, such as gold or real estate, have monetary value on top of their utility. Gold at $15T, real estate at nearly $400T. Anything people hold to store wealth long term, Bitcoin will take a significant bite from. At $58K or $80K or $200K it is insanely undervalued. Eventually Bitcoin will be what all use to preserve purchasing power, not a get-rich-quick scheme as it appears now. It is foolish to quibble and fret over short-term price fluctuations in the hopes of getting a slightly better entry point. The long-term trend is undeniable. You will obtain Bitcoin at the price you deserve. Consider getting off zero early. image generated with

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