Piotr

Piotr's avatar
Piotr
Piotr@BitcoinNostr.com
npub1h6sn...3tt5
Narciscist, fascist, sociopath and psychopath but overally degenerated fuck. Second dumbest person alive.
Its quite interesting that according to company (OGB) doing political research, there are two parties with >10% each, both of those are "free market" ones. They are kind of minarchists. One is Mentzen (pro Bitcoin) other Braun (hanukkah guy). Its hard to believe in such high support for that line. If that 10% each is real then that split might have been very good. Now people who were scared off (KO voters) by Brauns radicalism can have party w/o that and those heavy catholics (probably part pf PiS voters) can vote only Braun(?). If I want to somehow predict future election scores (if there's no mass vote fraud, single frauds happen per size of event) I look on number of deaths and how do older people vote. Then I look at number of children which will get old enough to vote. First for Poland let's say 60% of people vote, then % of support for some political group. For Poland, let's take 800k (estimates above) deaths till next election, older people as group have from 51% to 74%(!) voter turnout. Let's take 60%, that's 480k votes mostly going to both mainstream parties 35-40% for PiS and 30-34% for KO. Teens born in 2008 and 2009 reach voting age till next elections, 414k and 417k. Let's take 800k, 60% voter turnout, 480k votes. Support for Konfederacja (by mlodzi glosuja, presidential vote poll for 700teens) 30% for Mentzen. That would be 144k fresh votes.