Generalist

Dallas FED survey on oil market.

Lingering pessimism, uncertainty further weigh on oil and gas activity

Activity in the oil and gas sector edged lower in fourth quarter 2025, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey.

"I have an uneasy feeling about the reason that China continues to stockpile crude oil to the tune of about a million barrels per day. Could it be a prelude to an invasion of Taiwan?" Same brother, same.

Madara Cosmetics $MDARA management said they have something exciting to announce in H1 webinar I assumed it was new markets. b2b subscription based service for hotels was not in my bingo card. Interesting if they get traction in this segment, but gotta compliment the move.

Annual Nasdaq-100 index ($NDX) changes. Added: -Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ($ALNY) -Ferrovial SE ($FER) -Insmed Incorporated ($INSM) -Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. ($MPWR) -Seagate Technology Holdings plc ($STX) -Western Digital Corp. ($WDC) Removed: -Biogen Inc. ($BIIB) -CDW Corporation ($CDW) -GlobalFoundries Inc. ($GFS) -Lululemon Athletica Inc. ($LULU) -ON Semiconductor Corporation ($ON) -The Trade Desk, Inc. ($TTD).

Radio Paradise served this wonderful cover of one of most recognizable Tears of Fears songs "Head over Heels" by Japanese Breakfast. New indie artist for me. Way more collected, chill version. #GLMusicDiscovery #indie

Glassnode: The aggregated size of Bitcoin treasuries held by public and private companies has grown from 197K BTC to 1.08M BTC, a ~448% increase since January 2023. Corporate balance sheets are becoming an increasingly significant pillar of demand for BTC. Price is noise.

Occasionally visit Clouded Judgement for newest stats, comps, but title on this one caught my eye. Startup space getting irrational on compensation expectations. All in the space of that 1% w/ purcashing power.

Clouded Judgement 12.5.25 - Monopoly Money

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies.

“In three words I can sum up everything I’ve learned about life: It goes on.” - Robert Frost

Captions by Allesio

US INTEREST RATE FUTURES PRICE IN 78% CHANCE OF PAUSE IN JANUARY MEETING VS 70% BEFORE FED RATE CUT -LSEG FUTURES IMPLY TRADERS SEE FED POLICY RATE AT 3.1% AT END-2026 AFTER FED RATE CUT, LITTLE CHANGED FROM LEVELS JUST BEFORE -LSEG Assuming traders still price independent FED for next year. Mistake imo. QE starts in 2 days. My outlook: party on into year end, volatility starts Q1 w/ bootlicker Hasset as FED chair: -Rates down -10Y up -Gold up -Stocks up -Dollar down